9/21/2022
MGT602
Business Decision Analytics
OWEN SEAMONS
[email protected]
9/21/2022
In Class Exercise on Data, Information, Knowledge
Confirm your understanding of data, information and knowledge:
Watch Video: Timandra Harkness TEDx Talks. (2017). What is
Knowledge in the Age of Big Data?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tdilkRC4YVw&t=95s
Read Hitt, M., Ireland,D. & Hoskisson,R. (2016). Strategic
management concepts and cases: Competitiveness and
globalisation. Chapter 2. Changes to the external environment.
Go to Discussion Forum 1: Identify four (4) examples of Data,
Information and Knowledge. Describe their essential differences
and uses.
Assessment 1
checklist:
MGT602 /MGMT6002
Business Decision Analytics:
Decision style analysis
DUE DATE: 11.55pm, Sunday
[end of session 4]
See policy on late
submission: – 10% per day,
for 5 days, then ‘0’ result.
WORD COUNT: 1,500 words +/- 10%
Does Not include exec summary; table of
contents; appendices, list of refs, tables, graphs.
Assessment One
1. Identify your decision preferences and
2. Determine ways of bringing flexibility to your decision style.
3. Construct a personal diary listing of how you made the decision
on the topic given to you by your facilitator; reflect on those
decisions
4. Complete the survey instrument that is on Blackboard; reviewand
analyse the results received in the logic, intuitive and balance
results
5. Work with a mentor-buddy in giving-gaining feedback on ways to
address type differences, bringing balance to own-others’
decision preferences.
6. Map out a development plan lto offset the biases and blind spots
that you identify in your decision making personality.
DUE WEEK FOUR
5
6
A/ Select and evaluate the usefulness of a range of decision-making tools
and reflect on your decision-making styles
and contrast with other styles to determine the respective levels of rationality and
intuition utilised.
PREPARATION FOR ASSESSMENT 1
PERSONAL DECISION PREFERENCES-[Access via Assessment 1- see screenshot-next slide]
1. Identify individual decision preferences – complete the decision style instrument:
Intuition
Logic
Balance
2. On-line or manual: Calculate your rating for each of above: Low, Medium, High
3. Consider ways in which decision preferences could be moved to HIGH.
4.Share insights, experience, give and receive feedback with your ‘study team’.
LEARNING OUTCOME
7
ACCESS THE DECISION STYLE INSTRUMENT HERE
8
STRUCTURE
Create structure for your assessment:
a/ cover page – Name, Student id#, subject, class, WORD COUNT # ; academic integrity
statement (/ use cover sheet is on mystudent hub@torrens)
b/ Table of contents [section #- sub-title –p.#]
c/ Executive summary [write AFTER you complete d-g; Key focus; points; results;
recommendations; significance]
d/ Introduction –what-why-define key terms-structure
e/ Sub-sections: use short sub-headings- guided by requirements.
f/ Conclusion: key learning points? So what? Significance for your learning –theory and
practice of decision-making in organisations.
g/ Recommendations for self- actions for your own personal change
g/ List of references [see APA referencing guide, 7th ed.]
APPENDICES
a. Personality style/ strengths- summary from on-line instruments
b. Feedback from study team [the actual feedback can go in the appendices- your reflection
and insights goes in the main body]
What are you to do?
• Select a complex decision that you have made in the
past 10 weeks?
• Analyse YOUR decision making process using the
theories of:
– Context
– Personality
– Preferred decision making style
– Rational decision making model
• Give the analysis to three friends or colleagues and ask
them identify on what points they agree or disagree
with your analysis
• NOTE: The assessment does not require evaluation of
whether the decision was good, average or poor. It is
only the decision making process.
Office | Faculty | Department
A single
decision
making
event
Individual or group
with changing state of
satisfaction to current
situation
Contextual influences
to decision
Solution options
Selected option
Decision points
State of dis satisfaction
with current situation
Time between decisions
Shorter the line the quicker the second decision
You are
analysing
here
Assessment 1
Structure and content
Format – 1500 words max
• Introduction – 10% of word count – 150 words
– Intro: What is it about, what theories are used and what
is the structure
• Body – 80% of the word count – 1200 words
• 6 – 7 paragraphs
» 4 paragraphs to self analysis
» 2 paragraphs to reflection on critique from
colleagues/friends
• Conclusion – 10% of word count – 150 words
• References – APA
September 21, 2022 GSBS6001 Assignment 3 Reflective Writing |
www.newcastle.edu.au 11
SUGGESTIONS
• Theory
– Feature 1
– Feature 2
– Feature 3
– Feature 4
– Feature 5
– Feature 6
– Feature 7
• Case
– Fact 1
– Fact 2
– Fact 3
– Fact 4
– Fact 5
Analysis
Building foundation
• Words per sentence – 15 to 25. Beyond 30, the
sentence is running on
• Sentences per paragraph – 6 to 10. Approx 120 to
200 words
• Paragraphs start with topic sentence – the theme of
the paragraph
• Theory is used to analyse the case – do not recite
the theory
Building foundation
• The topic sentence is the theme of the paragraph
• Theory is linked to the facts that you have
found/identified
• Supporting sentences build the argument/position
presented in the topic sentence
References
A grade
– Text books
– Journals
– WTO/UN
– ABS etc
– University publications
B grade
– Hays consulting
– Delloites/Andersons/PWC
– BBC/PBS/ABC – quality news
C grade
– Company websites
– General news
– Blogs
F grade
– Web
– Wikis etc
Quality checks
THE REFERENCE LIST
• Consider your reference list carefully
• It is a reflection of what you have put into the
article. It is like a computer: garbage in –
garbage out
Have you checked the
requirements?
Have you checked the learning rubrics –
assessment criteria and standards for HD?
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Assessment Guide Slides
• These Assessment Guide Slides are on
– Blackboard
– Assessment
– Assessment 1 (bottom of page)
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ASSESSMENT CRITERIA AND STANDARDS FOR HD

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Class Discussion on Assessment One
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Assessment One Prep: Week 1
• Access and complete the Decision Style Instrument [intuitionlogic-balance] Note down responses to the statements
• Analyse Own Decision Preference Results.
• Identify which of the preferences higher /lower than the
norms provided.
• Determine own decision preference areas for development
• Select a complementary ‘buddy’ to work together on
Assessment One. [different eg, MBTI/gender/work interests].
• Prepare to work together virtually in communicating, decisionmaking, getting and giving feedback
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Recap of Last Week’s Class
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Data vs Information
• Is data information?
• If not, what is the difference?
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Data to Wisdom: The Transition
TO DO: View and Discuss :
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sIjSY0
5JE9Q **
Data, Information Knowledge in 3 Minutes
or Less
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mUgE
gkV16Bw
Discuss the implications Flowing from this
video
Read and Discuss: Bellinger, Castro & Mills
(2004). Systems thinking, Data,
Information , Knowledge and Wisdom
27
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Models of Decision Making
• The Rational Model
• – Consists of a structured four-step sequence:
– identifying the problem
– generating alternative solutions
– selecting a solution
– implementing and evaluating the solution
– https://youtu.be/3aC3sUlEsr8 *
9/21/2022
Other Famous Decision Models
• https://youtu.be/UkZkHBo_y_k *
Herbert Simon
Daniel Kahneman
Amos Tversky
https://youtu.be/3IjIVD-KYF4 **
Heuristics and Biases
Limited resourcing, Rules of
Thumb, Satisficing
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Confirmation Bias
https://youtu.be/B_YkdMwEO5U
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Heuristics
• First, what are heuristics?
– An heuristic is a rule of thumb, a shortcut to making a
decision
• What are the main types of heuristic?
– Availability
– Representativeness
– Base-rate
• Base rate neglect happens when we ignore the basis of
probabilities
• https://youtu.be/nSFHFfevfms **
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MGT602: MODULE 1.2 [WEEK 2]
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Logic vs Intuition
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Human Decision Making
https://youtu.be/gdcLq1I2csU **
9/21/2022
Individual Differences in Data Handling, Information
Processing Preferences
• Our individual preferences in information processing can
have a profound effect on the way we make decisions
• APPEAL to LOGIC, RATIONALITY Vs INTUITION
• APPEAL to ETHICAL DIMENSION in decision making has
given rise to the need for a third mode-
• A balanced mode
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The Rational Decision Maker
• Traditional view of decision making:
• objective, logical and ‘rational’ approach to:
• identify facts of the case,
• frame the problem,
• investigate possible solutions,
• implement the ‘optimum’(?) solution, and
• Justify the decision, with appeal to logic and rationality.
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Forming Rational Judgements
Use of formal logic:
The syllogism [from Greek
syllogismos- inference, conclusion]
A Ↄ B = If we have A,
then we have B
B Ↄ C = If we have B,
then we have C
C Ↄ D = If we have C,
then we have D
A D = We have A,
and therefore we have D
Example
• All students at this university
are netball players
• All netball players at this
university are female
• Maria is a female student at
this university
• Therefore, Maria is a netball
player.
A valid and rational argument:
2 premises – > conclusion
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Expected Utility
• a predicted utility value for one of several
options, calculated as the sum of the utility of
every possible outcome each multiplied by the
probability of its occurrence.
• (in game theory or economics) a measure of
that which is sought to be maximized in any
situation involving a choice.
• https://youtu.be/u6e7vieYJ2c **
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Decision Tree Analysis
• A decision tree is a decision support tool that
uses a tree-like graph or model of decisions
and their possible consequences, including
chance event outcomes, resource costs, and
utility. It is one way to display an algorithm
that only contains conditional control
statements.
https://youtu.be/ydvnVw80I_8 **
9/21/2022
Decision Tree Analysis
Problem alternatives can be evaluated using probabilities of
occurrence, utilities of outcomes
Decision Node
Decision Node
Decision Node
Decision Node
Merge
High Growth
No Growth
Not Merge
Medium
Growth
No Growth
Merge Outcome= 0.7+ 0.06 = 0.76
Not Merge Outcome= 0.3 + 0.08 = 0.38
0.7
0.3
0.6
U=1.0 Expected
Utility =0.7x 1.0 = 0.7
U=0.2 Expected Utility
= 0.3 x 0.2 =0.06
U= 0.2 Expected Utility
=0.4 X 0.2 = 0.08
U= 0.5 Expected Utility
=0.6 x 0.5= 0.3
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The Rational Choice Model (RCM)
RCM Advantages:
Consistency of decision making; useful across situations; rigorous
training tool, transparent to the problem solver
RCM Can be justified on basis of:
• RCMs seek to maximise outcomes
• Workplace environments are (supposed to be) ‘objective’ in
nature
• Organisation planning frameworks tend to be highly structured
• Emotion can be discounted through use of computers, flow
charts, decision trees, other decision aids
9/21/2022
Using the Rational Choice Model
A practical approach:
• Weigh up problem options by
dividing a sheet of paper into two
halves, listing the pros and cons
of alternatives.
• Then apply subjective weights to
different alternatives.
• What weights would you give to:
• POSITION +
• DENSITY –
• TRANSPORT +
• RENTAL COST –
• Compare the relative weighted
alternatives and form a decision
as to the preferred solution
+
Close to
ocean
Convenient
transport
–
High
density
High cost
9/21/2022
Class Exercise in RCM: Wanted to rent
• You have just arrived in Brisbane Australia as a student
and looking for somewhere to live.
• You are considering renting rooms but are unsure of
where the best location might be.
• Use the RCM to help you solve the problem.
• Draw a line down the middle of a page or set up a table
on your computer.
• Assign a plus sign to the left side and minus to the right.
• Now enter attributes you consider important such as
proximity, size, cost transport, or others that come to
mind. Weight each attribute, determine sums of the
weighted attributes, polarities to arrive at an overall
rational decision
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What are Challenges in Using the Rational Process?
• Insufficient tool when situations call for creative solutions
• Individual emotions can carry greater weight in decision making
and cannot be ignored (RCM exercise using weighted attributes can be
readily changed to better suit own feelings)
• Many problems are too complex, ambiguous or time constrained
for application of ‘rational’ processes
• Decision makers have limited cognitive processing capacity –
cannot possibly know all constraints
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Making Decisions the Rational Way
• View the video on Rational Decision Making outlining the steps
involved in process from: Identifying the nature of the
problem…… through to deciding how to resolve the problem
https://youtu.be/4VBilRw2aCI
• Use your understanding of the RDM process to discuss the
following:
Managers are expected to apply objective, unemotional,
rational approaches to handling data and taking an analytical
approach to decision making.
Would RDM fit managers’ decision making in most situations?
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Intuitive Decision Making
• Rational approaches to information processing may not be
useful, when:
• ambiguous data
• Lack of sufficient ‘hard data’
• Novel situation.
• Need to take an ‘outside the box’ approach and go with your
hunches or ‘gut feel’. [A tacit or below conscious awareness
approach to processing]
• Intuition, being outside of conscious control, tends not to be
trusted and therefore may be discounted as a valid process
• Effective decision making calls on managers to make good use
of their intuition and to be confident in its use – comes with
experience
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Intuition???
• When talking about intuition we are describing
something that is known, perceived, understood or
believed by instinct, feelings or nature without actual
evidence, rather than by use of conscious thought,
reason, or rational processes.
• This does not imply that intuitive decision making is
irrational. Instead, we mean that the explanation for
a choice is not directly available through conscious or
logical thought.
9/21/2022
Understanding Intuition
• Intuition can be explained as operating in two ways:
Knowing: As expertise gained through sense making
Feeling: As affect operating through connection of our
mind and body
• Intuition as knowing and as feeling can interact, and compare
favorably, with logic as a form of cognition
• Managers make use of their intuition in:
• Sensing problems;
• Reading patterns of data;
• Working with pictures, images in information processing,
• Forming decisions tacitly
9/21/2022
Managers Use of Intuition is Needed…
In decision situations where:
Time is limited
Task is unstructured
Information is ambiguous
Task outcomes are uncertain
Challenges in using intuition:
• Decisions based on use of intuition may be biased
• Quick decisions made using intuition may contain errors
• Decisions made intuitively can be distrusted and perhaps rejected
in some work environments
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Problems with intuition and decision making
• Intuition plays a significant role in the choices we
make. Unfortunately, working alone, intuition can be
the source of significant errors in the course of
making a decision. Some of the challenges are:
– Flawed information
– Short term emotional bias
– Insufficient consideration of alternatives
– Prejudices
– Lack of openness
– Inappropriate application
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When is Intuitive Decision Making
Appropriate?
• When speed is critical to a successful outcome,
expect to have to rely more heavily on intuitive
decision making.
• Examples include choices made in battle or by first
responders arriving at a crisis scene.
• In both cases, participants undergo extensive
training that helps build the experience patterns that
will improve intuition and decision making.
9/21/2022
Class Session-Action Planning
1. Read Sadler Smith and Shefy (2004) on the ‘intuitive’ manager
and use of ‘gut feel’ in decision making
2. Identify and discuss different means of developing intuition in
making decisions, as outlined in the paper.
3. Plan to make a daily diary tracking your own decisions over
fifteen days.
4. Reflect and record levels of trust, confidence in your acceptance
of making intuitive decisions.
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Discussion Session
1. Read and discuss Gary Klein, Chapter 5 , in Streetlights and
Shadows (2009)
2. Describe the adaptive nature of managers’ decision making
outlined in the work
3. What relevance might fire fighters, intensive care nurses and
airline cabin crew have for decision making research and
practice?
4. What comments does Klein make in relation to rational
processing?
9/21/2022
The Balanced –Wise Decision Maker
Balanced decision-making is:
Wise decision making –
called for when there is an ethical or
moral dimension to the problem.
More than logic-based; more than
intuition-gut feel.
Managers bring opposing points of view
to mind and balance these views in
forming judgements and making
decisions.
LOGIC
BALANCED
INTUITION
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System One Thinking
• Produces the fast, intuitive reactions and
instantaneous decisions that govern most of
our lives
– see that an object is at a greater distance than another
– complete the phrase “war and …”
– solve 2+2=?
– read a text on a billboard
– connect the description ‘quiet and structured person with an eye for
details’ to a specific job
• Daniel Kahneman (25 October 2011). Thinking, Fast and Slow. Macmillan.
9/21/2022
System Two Thinking
• Is the deliberate type of thinking involved in focus,
deliberation, reasoning or analysis – such as
calculating a complex math problem, exercising selfcontrol, or performing a demanding physical task.
– brace yourself before the start of a sprint
– point your attention towards someone at a loud party
– dig into your memory to recognize a sound
– sustain a higher than normal walking rate
– determine the appropriateness of a behavior in a social setting
– give someone your phone number
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A Balanced Approach?
• High levels of connectivity today – more
reflective (balanced) approach to
decision making is required
• To balance potential conflict between
logical and intuitive modes of
processing
• To take account of, reflect on, other
points of view and consider
implications of your decisions on others
• Emergence of world’s learned
experience tending towards ‘Wise
Decision Making’. Some way to go yet!
9/21/2022
Challenges in Balanced (Wise ) Decision Making
• Can be challenging in an unbalanced world
• Considerable slowing in decision making when
reflecting on the implications of own decisions on
others.
• May not be acceptable to organisation despite the
positives!
• Careful consideration of others may be unacceptable
due to inconsistency with organisation’s timing,
scheduling
• Review Reading Dhami & Thomson (2012)
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Discussion Session on Assessment 1
1. Review the relevant assessment brief (highly
recommended), including rubrics
2. Read the recommended readings in advance.
3. Create a daily decision making diary, noting your
decisions and reflections on type, process.
4. Complete an MBTI on-line this week (#2).
5. Review and follow the TUA-APA System of
referencing, research protocols, standards of
assessment presentation
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Class Discussion and Revision
1. Review readings and videos covered in module 1
2. Access and use of MBTI methodology
3. Revise exercises in rational, intuitive processing
4. Manage your study time- schedule, project plan
5. Review in text citations and end of text referencing
6. Review standards for assessment presentation
7. Discuss the SafeAssign process and importance of
academic integrity in your research, construction and
presentation of individual and group work