Abstract

This research work seeks to gain a comprehensive insight into how the war between Russia and Ukraine has affected the global automobile industry performance, specifically its luxury car segment, through an analysis of relevant secondary data. The start of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has had a devastating effect on the global supply chain, as several nations in Europe and America have placed economic and trade bans on Russia, driving up procurement costs for global automobile giants like Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and Jaguar Land rover.

To gain an understanding of how the conflict between Russia and Ukraine affects customers’ sentimental reactions towards luxury cars, a positivist research philosophy, inductive research approach, mixed research strategy, and correlational research design were employed. Furthermore, web scrapping “cars.com” for the Mercedes brand provides valuable data regarding customer sentiment changes towards luxury car models which is then analysed using sentiment analysis using the Google Colab tool. Based on secondary analysis of this secondary data, it can be concluded that there has been an adverse effect of the beginning of the war between Russia and Ukraine on both the financial and non-financial performance of the global automobile industry.

Keywords: Sentiment Analysis, Automobile Industry, Web Scraping, Customer Sentiment, Luxury Cars, Mercedes Benz, Russia-Ukraine War.

Abstract 2

List Of Figures 5

List Of Appendix 6

List Of Abbreviation 6

Chapter 1: Introduction 7

1.1 Overview 7

1.2 Rationale and Problem Statement 8

1.3 Aim 10

1.4 Objectives 10

1.5 Research Question 10

1.6 Research Gap 11

1.7 Research Importance 12

Chapter 2: Literature Review 13

2.1 A summary of the automobile industry and luxury automobiles 13

2.2 A summary of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine 13

2.3 Connection and Impact of the Identified Geopolitical Conflict on Automotive Industry Competency 14

2.4 Impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine on Consumers’ Sentiments Toward Luxury Automobiles 16

Chapter 3: Research Methodology 18

3.1 Overview 18

3.2 Research Strategy 18

3.3 Research Philosophy 19

3.4 Research Design 19

3.5 Research Approach 20

3.6 Data Collection and Sampling 20

3.7 Data Analysis 22

3.8 Ethical Consideration 22

Chapter 4: Result 24

4.1 Overview 24

4.2 Web scraping using Beautiful Soup 25

4.3 Sentiment Analysis 27

4.4 In the context of the pre-Russian-Ukrainian War era 28

4.5 In the context of the Emergence of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict 31

4.6 Summary 34

Chapter 5: Discussion 35

5.1 Overview 35

5.2 Evaluating the Outcome of Sentiment Analysis 35

5.3 Analysis of Secondary Data Illustrated by Sentiment Analysis 40

5.4 Summary 41

Chapter 6: Conclusion and Recommendation 42

6.1 Conclusion 42

6.2 Recommendation 43

6.3 Limitation 43

6.4 Future Scope 44

Chapter 7: Referencing 45

List Of Figures

Figure 2.1: Impact of Geopolitical Conflict on Global Automobile Industry’s Performance; Source: Author …………………………………………………………………………………15

Figure 4.1: Reviews page of Mercedes Car; Source: (Cars.com, 2023) …………………24

Figure 4.2: Web Scraping Data; Source: Author ……………………………………………26

Figure 4.3: Python Command for appropriate type of comment is given to each luxury car model; Source: Author ……………………………………………………………………….. 28

Figure 4.4: Wordcloud of Sentiment Analysis of Data Including Consumer Views of Mercedes Luxury Cars Prior to the Russia-Ukraine Conflict; Source: Author…………….29

Figure 4.5: Estimate of the Sentiment of Each Customer Opinion in Polarity; Source: Author……………………………………………………………………………………………29

Figure 4.6: Sentiment Result of Consumer Opinion on Luxurious Cars Prior to the Russia-Ukraine Conflict; Source: Author……………………………………………………………..30

Figure 4.7: Consumer Attitudes About Mercedes Luxury Cars Prior to the Russia-Ukraine Conflict; Source: Author…………………………………………………………………….…31

Figure 4.8: Wordcloud of the Sentiment Analysis of Data Containing Customer Opinions Regarding the Mercedes Luxury Automobile Following the Russia-Ukraine War; Source: Author……………………………………………………………………………………………32

Figure 4.9: Estimation of the Polarity of Each Customer’s Sentiment in the Event of a Post-Russian-Ukrainian War Situation; Source: Author…………………………..……….33

Figure 4.10: Sentiment Outcome of Customer’s Opinion regarding Luxury Car after the Russia-Ukraine War; Source: Author…………………………………………………………34

Figure 4.11 : Customer Attitudes Towards Mercedes Luxury Automobile Following the Russia-Ukraine War; Source: Author…………………………………………………………35

Figure 5.1: Before and after the outbreak of hostilities between Russia and Ukraine, a comparison of global customers’ attitudes towards Mercedes automobiles; Source: Author……………………………………………………………………………………………34

Figure 5.2: Frequency of Negative Sentiment Towards Mercedes Luxury Model- Prior to Russia’s Attack on Ukraine; Source: Author…………………………………………………35

Figure 5.3: Frequency of Negative Sentiment Towards Mercedes Luxury Model- Following Russia’s Attack on Ukraine; Source: Author.……………………………………36

Figure 5.4: Comparative Analysis of Variance in Customer Negative Sentiments Towards Mercedes Luxury Model Before and After Russia’s Attack on Ukraine; Source: Author…37

List Of Appendix

Gantt Chart

List Of Abbreviation

AMG	Aufrecht Melcher Grobaspach
BBC	British Broadcasting Channel
BMW	Bayerische Motoren Weken
CAGR	Compound Annual Growth Rate
CSV	Comma Separated Values
DV	Dependent Variables
GDP	Gross Domestic Product
HTML	Hypertext Markup Language
GLE	Graphics Layer Engine
IV	Independent Variables
NLP	Natural Language Processing
S-CLASS	Special Class
UK	United Kingdom
USA	United States of America
XML	Extensible Markup Language

Chapter 1: Introduction

Overview

Sentiment analysis is an analytical technique that examines the impact of macroeconomic factors like inflation, war, and economic constraints on consumers’ purchasing behaviour and decision-making patterns (Zhang et al., 2018). Sentiment analysis is of paramount importance to automotive companies, especially luxury car makers since the demand for their products depends heavily on customer buying capacity and brand perception. Before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, luxury car manufacturers like BMW and Mercedes-Benz enjoyed a balanced supply-demand situation; however, this balance was severely disrupted after the conflict. On 24th February 2022, Russia’s military invaded Ukraine with both land and air strike techniques, leading to the displacement of around 1.4 crore people from their residences and 42, 295 deaths (BBC, 2023). The illegal invasion of Russia into Ukraine was condemned by global powers such as the USA and Europe, leading to economic sanctions and trade embargoes in response. Economic sanctions and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine caused global automobile production to decline by five million units between February 2022 to December 2022 (Money Control, 2023). Conversely, due to reduced global spending capacity due to these events, luxury car sales such as Mercedes-Benz were down almost 27 % globally (Business Insider, 2023).

Hence, for understanding the influence of the war held between Russia and Ukraine on the different characteristics of the luxury car segment and buying behaviour of respective clientele. Thus, this research work seeks to uncover the effects of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine on various characteristics of luxury car segments and their buying behaviours, in order for manufacturers to make necessary corrections. In this research work, three variables are studied: “Russia-Ukraine war,” “customer sentiment towards luxury cars” and “performance of luxury car manufacturing companies”. The variables “performance of luxury car manufacturing company and sentiment of customers towards luxury automobile” are dependent variables, while “Russia-Ukraine war” acts as an independent variable. This investigation seeks to understand the relationship between identified independent (IV) and dependent variables (DV). This allows for a deeper comprehension of how IV affects DV outcomes. This research study is composed of six chapters, including:

Introduction,

Literature review,

Research methodology,

Results,

Discussion,

Recommendation and Conclusions.

At first glance, various information sources including books, blogs, and journals have indicated a profound effect of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine on cars belonging to the luxury segment of the global automobile industry and customer purchasing behaviour. To demonstrate the academic impact of the war between Russia and Ukraine on luxury automobile sales and customer sentiment, both quantitative and qualitative data analysis methods were utilized to compare customer assessments posted on online blogs to assess the state before and after the conflict.

To validate and confirm the opinion expressed in journals and books about how the war between Russia and Ukraine has affected consumers’ attitudes toward luxury cars and how this industry performs, a secondary data collection method will be employed: web scraping (Yarovaya & Mirza, 2022). Further, quantitative methods will be combined with qualitative data analysis to examine the differences in customer perception of luxury cars before and after the end of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.

Finally, the quantitative and qualitative results are evaluated, and potential inferences are drawn for global luxury car manufacturing and marketing companies to help them tailor their strategies according to market demands in order to experience progressive growth.

Rationale and Problem Statement

The purpose of this research is to examine the impact of the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine on the production and sales of luxury and standard automobiles on global markets from the perspective of automakers and consumers. Jaguar, BMW, Volvo, Land Rover, Toyota, and General Motors obtain the majority of their critical metals and other mechanical raw materials from Russia, but due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, this commerce has been curtailed (Business Wire, 2023). As a result of the economic sanctions and trade embargo-related measures adopted by European and U.S. nations to deter Russia’s invasion on Ukraine, the global supply chain has been significantly hindered, making it more difficult for global vehicle manufacturers to meet raw material requirements. In April 2022, for instance, BMW’s management faced a 17.00% shortfall of motorised parts for the production of its luxury variants, resulting in a 20,000-vehicle decrease in production (BMW Blog, 2023). In contrast, monetary sanctions and disruptions in the global supply chain system limited the supply of vital supplies such as vehicle parts, food products, and electronic chips, resulting in a 2.7% increase in the worldwide market’s inflation rate (IMF, 2023).

As a result of a considerable increase in the global rate of inflation, the average purchasing capacity of the world’s population fell by 13%, resulting in a drop in their propensity to purchase expensive things such as luxury vehicles (Euro Monitor, 2023). As a result of the war between Russia and Ukraine, worldwide consumers’ purchasing power has decreased, reducing their propensity to spend large portions of their wages on non-essential things such as luxury automobiles. Consequently, global demand for the commodity has decreased (Euro News, 2023). Due to economic sanctions imposed by European and non-European nations, luxury car sales in Russia fell by 58.80% in 2022, causing the global automobile industry to incur a loss of more than 100 billion GBP (Business Wire, 2023). It indicates that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has negatively impacted not only the buying behaviour and decision-making pattern of global vehicle customers, but also the financial performance of global luxury car manufacturing and retailing enterprises. In order to assist luxury automobile manufacturers in making educated decisions in the current economic climate caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, it is intended to conduct a study whose findings will help them alter their pricing, procurement, and marketing strategies.

The relationship between customer mood and the financial success of luxury automobile manufacturing enterprises of the world, which has a significant role in determining the demand and supply of the commodity, is another reason for doing the research. While luxurious vehicles are expensive and cannot be purchased as frequently as other commodities, luxury car-manufacturing enterprises must have good consumer feelings in order to achieve financial and non-financial growth (Mintel, 2023). The war between Russia and Ukraine has had a negative impact on the relationship between the performance of luxury automobile manufacturing businesses and the sentiment of their customers, resulting in a significant decline in their output and sales. The research is conducted in order to gain an in-depth understanding of the Russia-Ukraine war’s mediating function in influencing the purchasing behaviour and luxury car-purchase decisions of worldwide customers.

Aim

The objective of this research is to determine the impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine on the many facets of the global vehicle trade, particularly the luxury car category, and customer sentiment in terms of purchasing decisions, as well as to provide potential recommendations.

Objectives

The following objectives carried out to achieve the aim of the research is as follow:

To realize the relationship between the war between Russia and Ukraine and the financial condition of the global automobile industry.

To identify the impact of the war between Russia and Ukraine on customer feelings regarding luxury cars.

Classify the impact of the war between Russia and Ukraine on the production and demand for luxury automobiles.

Evaluate the overall impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine on the global luxury automobile industry.

Determine how the negative impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine on the global luxury car market can be mitigated.

Research Question

The key research question related to this study is as follows:

How has the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine affected customer opinion toward luxury automobiles?

How have supply chain and production disruptions caused by the war impacted luxury automobile brands?

What is the global impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine on the luxury automobile industry?

Research Gap

The completed research studies to date describe only the impact of the war between Russia and Ukraine on the global vehicle trade but provide no information on the luxury car segment. The new study fills this research gap (Huang & Lu, 2022). All previously reported studies have depicted the impact of the war between Russia and Ukraine on the global automotive industry and customer perceptions by employing participants from a small geographic region; thus, their findings cannot be extrapolated to the entire globe. In order to cover the result generalization-related research gap, this study collects and analyses customer reviews from around the world using web scraping and sentiment analysis techniques. Several researchers have examined how the Russia-Ukraine conflict has influenced the sales of luxury automobile firms and the buying behaviour of their clients, according to an examination of their respective research projects. To gain an in-depth understanding of the impact of the war between Russia and Ukraine on the attitude of customers towards luxury cars and the performance of individual enterprises, it is necessary to compare the trend before and after the war.

In the context of presenting a comparative examination of the difference in the purchasing behaviour of worldwide customers towards luxury automobiles before and after the Russia-Ukraine war, all current publications are deemed ineffective (Abbassi, et al., 2023). For the purpose of filling the research gap in the form of a comparative understanding of the impact of the war fought between Russia and Ukraine on the attitude of customers towards luxury automobiles before, during, and after the war, the research is conducted so that companies can create a marketing campaign to mitigate the impact. Existing sources of information have not elaborated on how the performance of luxury automobile manufacturers has been impacted by the war between Russia and Ukraine in terms of sales, operational strategy, production units, costs, and financial performance (Sngx et al., 2022). In order to provide a comparative analysis of the financial and non-financial traits of luxury automobile manufacturing and retailing enterprises before and after the Russia-Ukraine war, it is intended to conduct research.

Research Importance

The investigational study is essential for global automakers and luxury automakers to appreciate how the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is affecting the perceptions of their most important clients, as this will allow them to take corrective measures to optimize their growth. In addition, the qualitative and quantitative analytical results of the inquiry will help stockholders formulate a competitive judgement regarding whether or not to invest in an automobile manufacturing company, thereby reducing their investment risk. Aside from that, the research will aid world leaders in drafting trade and fiscal regulations that would mitigate the impact of the war between Russia and Ukraine on their fiscal standing and commercial industries, such as the luxury vehicle market. Another significance of the analytical research is that it will enable supply chain and retail companies involved in the distribution of luxury automobiles to take corrective measures regarding inventory acquisition and capital investment in accordance with real-time market trends in order to avoid the possibility of a situation in which funds are blocked.

Chapter 2: Literature Review

A summary of the automobile industry and luxury automobiles

The automobile sector encompasses all industries or businesses involved in the design, promotion, production, maintenance, retailing, and wholesale distribution of motor vehicles in the targeted market (Luo, et al., 2021). Luxury automobiles, sports automobiles, and regular automobiles are some of the segments in which the automobiles manufactured by the global automobile industry fall. Luxury car refers to four-wheeled vehicles that provide a superior driving experience, amenities, equipment, and status in comparison to standard automobiles. Aston Martin, BMW, Jaguar, McLaren, Ferrari, Rolls-Royce, Mercedes-Benz, Lamborghini, and Lexus, among others, fall under the category of luxury automobiles in the global automobile industry. By the end of 2030, the global automobile industry is projected to have a market size of approximately $ 3.3 trillion, with a CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) of 4.3%. (ibis World, 2023). The global market for luxury automobiles is estimated to reach $461.24 billion by the end of 2028, with a CAGR of 4.90 percent (Fortune Business Insight, 2023). In the current global market, global automobile companies concentrate primarily on producing and marketing competitive luxury cars, as this car segment affords them the highest profit margin relative to standard cars.

A summary of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine

Russia’s military invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, after the Ukrainian government failed to follow Moscow’s directives to reject the proposal of European nations to join their union (Britannica, 2023). In addition, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is an escalation of the cold war that has been ongoing between the two countries since the 2014 war between them began. With the beginning of the war between Russia and Ukraine, the Russian military bombarded both industrial and non-industrial areas of Ukraine, including automobile machinery manufacturers, oil fields, ports, bridges, hospitals, and schools, resulting in a 45 percent decline in the country’s economy within a few months. Due to the fact that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine destroyed not only the nation’s public areas but also its industrial regions, Ukraine incurred $ 138 billion in damages in December 2022. (IMF, 2023). As a result of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, global nations such as the United States and Europe imposed multiple sanctions, including trade restrictions, which significantly disrupted the global supply chain.

Connection and Impact of the Identified Geopolitical Conflict on Automotive Industry Competency

The performance of the automobile sector illustrates metrics such as production efficiency, the demand for motor vehicles, the cost of acquiring raw materials, and the inclusion of inventory costs, and its study assists relevant entities in implementing corrective actions to boost growth. According to the supply and demand theory, a company’s competency is dependent on the efficacy of its supply system and the availability of associated resources, as this enables it to fulfil the increasing demand of customers in an acceptable manner (Buechner, 2018). When a geopolitical conflict, such as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, escalates, the degree of harmony between global nations diminishes, hence reducing the ability of a nation’s businesses to utilise foreign resources. For instance, Russia is a leading supplier of cost-effective and competitive raw materials such as palladium and copper, which are traded by global automobile manufacturers such as Mercedes and BMW to make a cost-effective standard or luxury automobile (Sato & Panibratov, 2022).

Figure 2.1: Impact of Geopolitical Conflict on Global Automobile Industry’s Performance; Source: Author

It means that if the global automobile industry is to be more adept at finding cost-effective raw materials, it must have a harmonious relationship with raw material suppliers such as Russia in order to avoid paying additional trading taxes. With the escalation of the geopolitical conflict, the war between Russia and Ukraine, governments of global nations such as the United States and Europe imposed economic sanctions on Russia to reduce its GDP and indirectly force it to end the conflict.

As a result of the non-financial and economic sanctions imposed as a result of the Russia-Ukraine war, taxes on commodities imported from Russia by other countries were increased, hence increasing the global automobile industries and firms like Mercedes-Benz’s procurement costs. As a result of the increase in the price of motor parts imported from Russia, the cost of acquiring raw materials for global automakers such as BMW increased by 27% in 2022 compared to the previous fiscal year, hence increasing their production costs (Business Wire, 2023). It indicates that the escalation of the geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine has diminished the automotive industry’s ability to produce cost-effective vehicles with little inventory and operational costs, hence reducing their net revenue. In other words, if the geopolitical conflict had not existed, automobile businesses from a different region of the world would have been able to acquire the necessary motor materials from Russia and its related states at the optimal price and without paying any additional tax. If the price of procuring materials had decreased in the absence of the war between Russia and Ukraine, the performance of the global motor industry would not have been negatively impacted by greater operating expenses and lower net income.

In contrast, Ahmed et al. (2022) claim that the presence of a geopolitical conflict has a considerable impact on the sales of a product in a segmented market compared to a situation without conflict. As a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the raw material sourcing costs of global automakers such as Mercedes-Benz and BMW skyrocketed, rendering them incapable of procuring the essential resources to create and deliver luxury vehicles to consumers on time and at the agreed-upon price. Due to a lack of raw materials and a rise in respective expenses, BMW lowered its budget for the production of luxury automobiles by 16% in the third quarter of 2022. Ultimately, this prevented BMW from exploiting the global market (BMW Blog, 2023). In 2022, as a result of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the capacity of global automakers to offer the correct amount of luxury and standard automobiles without altering their prices declined by more than 21% compared to the previous fiscal year (Business Wire, 2023). In addition, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has had a considerable impact on the global vehicle industry’s sales, with the luxury car market being particularly affected. The invasion of Russia into Ukraine increased the production costs of global automobile manufacturers, resulting in an increase of more than 6 percent in the sales price of automobiles, particularly luxury automobiles, in 2022 compared to the previous fiscal year, which reduced the affordability of automobiles for consumers. As a result of the increase in the manufacture and sales cost of automobiles, their demand decreased by 9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2022 compared to the same period in the previous year, hence reducing the financial performance metric competence of the companies (Business Wire, 2023).

Impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine on Consumers’ Sentiments Toward Luxury Automobiles

Consumer sentiment is the buying behaviour and purchasing pattern of consumers that they adopt while determining which product to purchase in order to satisfy certain types of personal requirements. According to Acevedo (2018), external factors such as the inflation rate play a key role in determining the spending capacity of customers, as inflation diminishes the purchasing power of money relative to the selling price of a specified good. Russia is one of the world’s leading exporters of essential commodities such as gas, oil, and machinery, which has a substantial impact on the global GDP (Gross Domestic Product) (ibis World, 2023). As a result of sanctions imposed by nations such as the United States and Europe in response to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the worldwide market supply of commodities such as oil, gas, wheat, and automobile components from the Russian market has been curtailed. As a result of the decline in the supply of a required item, the inflation rate of global nations such as the United Kingdom and the United States climbed by more than 3 percent in 2022 compared to the previous fiscal year, thereby reducing consumers’ purchasing power (deloitte, 2023). As global consumers’ purchasing capacity decreases, their propensity to invest income in non-essential things such as luxury automobiles declines, resulting in a loss in demand and sales for luxury car manufacturers such as BMW, Audi, and Mercedes.

On the contrary, according to Wei & Zhang (2018), political policies have a big impact on a customer’s attitude towards an industry or product since they considerably influence their decision-making pattern. After the war between Russia and Ukraine, nations such as the United States and Europe harshly denounced Russia’s unethical behaviour, and this prompted customers to boycott businesses that use Russian resources (Crozet & Hinz, 2020). As a result of the sentiments of global consumers towards the Russian product boycott, luxury automobile manufacturers began seeking alternative sources of automotive raw materials to ensure that their demand would not be restricted, hence increasing their production costs. In brief, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has negatively impacted customer attitude towards the global luxury automobile market in terms of affordability, pricing, and purchasing frequency.

Chapter 3: Research Methodology

Overview

Research technique refers to the strategies or procedures that an individual or organisation researcher employs to complete all necessary phases of a particular type of research study or project, including data collection, analysis, and interpretation (Snyder, 2019). The competency of a research strategy chosen during the completion of a project plays a significant role in determining whether an appropriate type of insight will be derived from the analysis of a targeted dataset or not, as this enables corrective measures to be taken in order to identify valuable insight. This section of the research paper describes the strategy, technique, design, philosophy, and data-gathering process used to comprehend the impact of the war between Russia and Ukraine on the global automobile business, particularly the luxury car category.

Research Strategy

Research strategy refers to the framework that researchers adhere to in order to collect the essential qualitative or quantitative data related to a research topic so that corrective policies may be set up to handle the intended research problem effectively (Oliva, 2019). For a comprehensive knowledge of the impact of the war between Russia and Ukraine on the worldwide market for the luxury section of the automobile industry, a combined research method is employed rather than qualitative or quantitative research strategies alone. A mixed type of research strategy is one in which the frameworks of both qualitative and quantitative research techniques are used to collect and analyse the necessary type of data for a study (Swygart-Hobaugh, 2019). The adoption of a mixed research strategy over the other two research strategies is justified by the fact that it has played a significant role in understanding the impact of the war fought between Russia and Ukraine on the demand and supply of the luxury car segment from the perspectives of both qualitative and quantitative data. In other words, the chosen research technique aided in substantiating the perspectives of various journals and literature regarding the impact of the war fought between Russia and Ukraine on the luxury automobile industry by the strategic use of relevant quantitative data.

Research Philosophy

(O’Gorman & MacIntosh, 2016) described research philosophy are practices chosen to decide the belief used for collecting and analysing valuable data efficiently in showing the impact of the war between Russia and Ukraine on the demand and market of the luxury car segment of the global automobile industry. Positivism is chosen over interpretivism, realism, and pragmatism in order to gain an in-depth understanding of the impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine on the demand and supply of luxury automobiles such as Mercedes on the global market. The positivism research philosophy is an advanced research framework that eases the objective collection of valuable data regarding a study’s topic without introducing the possibility of subjective data. Positivism was chosen over three other research philosophies for this study because it contributed to a better understanding of the cause and effect of the war between Russia and Ukraine on the productivity and demand of luxury automobile manufacturers from a real market perspective (Winit-Watjana, 2016). With the help of the positivist research philosophy, it has been simple to efficiently collect real and objective data in order to set up a correlation between the occurrence of the war between Russia and Ukraine and the productivity of luxury automobile manufacturers.

Research Design

Research design is akin to a blueprint for a study, as it depicts the manner in which data collection, interpretation, and usage-related tasks are carried out, and competence in this area is crucial for deciding the success of the work (Dannels, 2018). In order to gain an in-depth understanding of how the war between Russia and Ukraine has affected the supply chain and demand of the luxury car segment of the global automobile industry, the correlational research design is chosen over the descriptive, comparative, and experimental designs. Correlational research design is an innovative research design that aids researchers in deciding the nature of the relationship between the significant variables of a study by strategically collecting the required data (Ailawadi & Farris, 2017). The occurrence of the war between Russia and Ukraine is an independent variable (IV) in the current research, while the demand for luxury cars, the performance of the global automobile industry, and the sentiment of respective customers are dependent variables (DV). The reason the correlational research design was chosen over the other three research designs is that it aided in finding the nature of the relationship between the war between Russia and Ukraine and the attitude of global customers towards the luxury car segment. In addition, the correlational research design is preferred over others because it has contributed significantly to both numerical and non-numerical data for proving the indirect impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on the financial and non-financial performance of the global automobile industry.

Research Approach

Research approach refers to an advanced framework that helps researchers develop a competitive model for achieving the aim of a study by confirming various hypotheses and research problems (Roy & Uekusa, 2020). In order to gain a deeper understanding of the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the productivity problem of global automobile companies, the deteriorating sentiment of their customers, and the decline in demand for their luxury segment, the inductive research method is preferred over the deductive one. The inductive research approach is an innovative research method that aids in the development of a competitive model by collecting valuable data related to the research study; the resulting framework aids in achieving predetermined goals and solving the research problem. The primary justification for choosing an inductive research method over a deductive one is that the chosen method has aided in the development of a theoretical framework for testing the hypothesised relationship between the occurrence of the war between Russia and Ukraine and the demand for the luxury car segment. Using an inductive research method, it has been possible to decide how the war between Russia and Ukraine has affected the demand and supply of the global luxury car segment and how the demand-supply gap has indirectly affected the sentiment of respective customers.

Data Collection and Sampling

Data collection is a crucial stage of a research study because it eases the gathering of valuable data related to the research project, which ultimately facilitates the discovery of valuable insights through analysis using an appropriate and competitive tool (Couper, 2017). The secondary data collection technique is preferred to the primary data collection technique for deciding the impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine on the performance of the luxury car segment of the global automobile industry. (Clark & Vealé, 2018) Secondary data collection is a conventional data gathering method in which potential data related to the targeted study topic is gathered by communicating with third parties such as blogs, websites, news portals, books, and journals. The reason secondary data collection was chosen over primary data collection is that it was possible to demonstrate the hypothesised relationship between the war between Russia and Ukraine and the sentiment of global customers towards the luxury car segment using the chosen data collection method (Couper, 2017). Two types of secondary data are collected in order to determine how the war fought between Russia and Ukraine has affected the sentiment of global customers towards the automobile industry and its luxury car market. Initially, secondary data pertaining to the relationship between the war fought between Russia and Ukraine and the performance of the global luxury automobile industry is collected by consulting relevant journals and books for the years 2016 to 2022.

In addition, customer reviews for the Mercedes luxury segment are collected as evidence of the opinion of journal and book authors regarding the impact of the war between Russia and Ukraine on the financial and non-financial performance of the luxury car segment of the global automobile industry. Referring to both the pre- and post-Russian-Ukrainian war situations, the following website is mentioned for collecting customer reviews of a Mercedes-Benz luxury model:

For the purpose of determining the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the sentiment of global customers towards the luxury car segment, reviews of Mercedes’s luxury model were collected from the website cars.com over the course of two fiscal years.

Secondary data regarding consumer sentiment towards luxury Mercedes cars = FY 2018 to 2021

Secondary data regarding consumer sentiment towards luxury Mercedes cars = March of FY 2022 to date

Consumer reviews-related data are collected using the Google Collaborate tool with the beautiful soup and web scraping functions. In order to reduce the likelihood of data redundancy or the dominance of a particular trend during the data collection and analysis phase, approximately three hundred customer reviews are selected for both the pre- and post-Russian-Ukrainian war periods (sample size). In addition, random sampling is used to collect secondary data on the impact of the war fought between Russia and Ukraine on the demand and supply of luxury automobile models, because this method ensures that each review has an equal chance of being included in the study (Taherdoost, 2016).

Data Analysis

Data analysis is a crucial stage of research because it enables the identification of competitive insights about a study within the collected datasets, which ultimately aids in addressing the targeted research problem effectively (Selvan & Balasundaram, 2021). For a comprehensive understanding of the impact of the war between Russia and Ukraine on the sentiment of global customers towards the luxury car segment of the automobile industry, qualitative data analysis is preferred to quantitative. The choice of qualitative data analysis over quantitative data analysis is based on the fact that secondary data collected from a digital portal and journals are non-numerical and cannot be analysed using quantitative data analysis (Assarroudi, et al., 2018). Two methods are used to analyse the collected secondary data: sentiment analysis and narrative evaluation. Python’s sentiment analysis algorithm is used to analyse the secondary data collected from “cars.com” because the data is too large to be analysed using the standard narrative analysis method (Agarwal, et al., 2016). On the other hand, secondary information collected from journals and books related to the research topic is analysed using the narrative analysis method, as it has proven to be a significant aid in identifying potential insights available within their opinions.

Ethical Consideration

For the purpose of ensuring the absence of any ethical conflicts, peer-reviewed journals and books are utilised so that the possibility of authenticity issues in the study’s findings about the impact of the war between Russia and Ukraine on the global automobile industry can be mitigated in advance. In addition, because web-scraping without informed permission is illegal, relevant data is collected only from websites that have been granted permission to scrape specific data, and “cars.com” is one of these.

Chapter 4: Result

Overview

On the basis of an analysis of secondary data, it has been determined that the war between Russia and Ukraine has had a negative impact on the production, sales, and overall performance of global luxury automobile manufacturing and retailing companies. In 2022, the war between Russia and Ukraine will have reduced the purchasing behaviour and paying capacity of customers from global nations such as the United Kingdom and Russia by 37% compared to the pre-war situation (McKinsey, 2023). As a result of the decline in the paying capacity and purchasing behaviour of global consumers, the management of luxury car manufacturing and retailing companies such as BMW, Mercedes, and Rolls Royce faces obstacles in maximising their revenue and acquiring cost-effective raw materials (Globe News Wire, 2023). For the purpose of comprehending the impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine on the attitudes of global consumers towards the purchase of luxury automobiles, a qualitative data analysis technique is applied to the opinions of Mercedes car customers available on websites such as cars.com (cars.com, 2023).

Figure 4.1: Reviews page of Mercedes Car; Source: (Cars.com, 2023)

The secondary data on sentiments of global customers regarding the purchasing decision and affordability of luxury cars are collected using the beautiful soup technique to scrape respective data from the cars.com website. Since other significant portals, such as “reviews.io,” restrict scraping, their servers do not permit scraping; therefore, “Cars.com” is used as a secondary source of data to collect customer sentiment regarding luxury car-related information. For the purpose of comprehending the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on the sentiment of global customers towards luxury cars, customer reviews for various Mercedes luxury models are scraped from cars.com and subsequently analysed using sentiment analysis. Two types of customer sentiment-related data are collected before and after the Russia-Ukraine war in order to gain an in-depth understanding of the variation in the sentiment of global customers regarding the purchase and use of luxury automobiles. The first type of data is collected before the Russia-Ukraine war, and the second type is collected after the war. The two types of scraped data from the cars.com website is analysed with the aid of sentiment analysis.

Web scraping using Beautiful Soup

The term “web scraping” refers to the practise of mechanically gathering data from websites through the use of specialised software known as “web scrapers.” Web scraping is a commonly done using the Python module Beautiful Soup. Using a variety of options, users of Beautiful Soup can extract data from HTML and XML files.

The process involved in scrapping for the necessary secondary data included importing the necessary libraries, sending a request to the website(www.cars.com) to be scraped, using Beautiful Soup, the HTML content of the page is parsed, identify the page elements from which data is to be extracted using Beautiful Soup’s methods and scrape data from the element.

Before and after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was the two types of customer data were web scraped in order to gain an in-depth understanding of the price variation and reviews of global customers regarding the purchase and use of luxury automobiles. The term ‘Pre-War’ refers to data collected prior to the Russia-Ukraine war, while ‘Post War’ refers to data collected after Russia invaded Ukraine.

Fig 4.2 Web scaping Data. Source; Author

The necessary libraries (BeautifulSoup, requests, and Pandas) are imported in the figure above, and the website to be scraped is defined and saved in a variable. The information is then requested using requests.get() method is used to send an HTTP get request to the URL of the website, the response is stored, and the response.status_code method is used to ensure that the response from the website was successful. ‘html.parser’ is used by Beautiful Soup to parse the HTML content of the page. The find() method of the soup object is used to locate all ‘div’ elements with a ‘vehicle-card’ class attribute, and the result is stored in a variable. This is where the necessary data would be extracted. By iterating through each element of the result using the find() method, the name, rating count, and price of each vehicle are extracted and appended to an empty list created. A Panda DataFrame is created and passed in a dictionary containing key-value pairs representing scraped data. The Pandas DataFrame is exported to a CSV file and stored for sentiment analysis.

Sentiment Analysis

Sentiment analysis is an analytical technique that assesses the nature of qualitative data through the strategic use of natural language processing (NLP) so that it can be determined whether the provided information is positive, negative, or neutral (Malviya, et al., 2020). Prior to the war between Russia and Ukraine, the opinions of global customers are segmented into two distinct subsets for the purpose of understanding the variation in the different aspects of customers in terms of buying behaviour, affordability, and eagerness to purchase luxury cars. and dataset following the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The information gathered prior to the war between Russia and Ukraine Its sample size is approximately 141 and it covers the fiscal years 2018 to 2021. It contains the opinions of global customers regarding the affordability of Mercedes luxury vehicles. The information set scraped from web portals for the situation after the Russia-Ukraine war contains 140 samples, and the date range for the opinions is between February 2022 and February 2023, with a total of 280 samples size. The number of reviews and a variety of Mercedes luxury car models, such as the Mercedes-Benz GLA 250 Base 4MATIC and the Mercedes-Benz S-Class S 560, are collected from “cars.com” first, and then, based on the number of reviews, the appropriate type of comment is given to each luxury car model.

Figure 4.3: Python Command for appropriate type of comment is given to each luxury car model; Source: Author

For example, a Mercedes luxury car with a review count between 800 and 1500 is marked as inefficient in terms of pricing or as having poor pricing, whereas a model with a review count between 300 and 800 is described as “not affordable and unfair deal” or “bad car deal.” Aside from that, the Mercedes luxury model with a review count between 0 and 300 has the comment “very poor pricing.” Based on the number of reviews, a separate column titled “comment” is added to the scraped datasets for both pre-war and post-war-related datasets, which are then analysed using sentiment analysis.

In the context of the pre-Russian-Ukrainian War era

Initially, the “Wordcloud” function is used to the dataset and its graphical output is displayed below for the purpose of determining the availability of different types of client sentiments regarding the affordability of luxury cars prior to the war between Russia and Ukraine.

Figure 4.4: Wordcloud of Sentiment Analysis of Data Including Consumer Views of Mercedes Luxury Cars Prior to the Russia-Ukraine Conflict; Source: Author

According to the graphical results, the quantity of favourable terms such as “excellent automobile, inexpensive pricing, fair bargain, and efficient pricing” is determined to be the most frequent in contrast to other texts. The presence of a greater number of favourable comments in Mercedes luxury car reviews reflects the good attitudes of worldwide buyers about the world’s luxury car sector. The package of sentiment intensity analyser and polarity is used to recognise the true sentiment of the opinions of customers present inside the dataset regarding luxury automobile affordability, and this has aided in assessing the sentiment of each comment in the form of polarity level. The polarity level of the secondary data set’s total samples is shown in tabular form below:

Figure 4.5: Estimate of the Sentiment of Each Customer Opinion in Polarity; Source: Author;

The tabular results show that the sentiment of each customer opinion is determined by recognising the degree of polarity of negative, positive, and neutral metrics, and this is done for full sample sizes. The real location of distinct sentiments in the second dataset is as follows, based on the strategic use of “Lambda” and “Compound” functions inside the sentiment analysis process:

Figure 4.6: Sentiment Result of Consumer Opinion on Luxurious Cars Prior to the Russia-Ukraine Conflict; Source: Author;

According to the sentiment study, the number of customers who have negative ideas or sentiments about the affordability of Mercedes’ premium models is 105, while the number of consumers who have a favourable attitude is thirty-four.

Figure 4.7: Consumer Attitudes About Mercedes Luxury Cars Prior to the Russia-Ukraine Conflict; Source: Author;

From the graph above, It shows that prior to the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, around 25% of the whole sample size had positive attitudes towards the affordability of the Mercedes luxury car, while only 74.9% of consumers had negative sentiments. Because of a tangible amount of positive frequency of favourable attitudes before the Russia-Ukraine war, luxury vehicle firms throughout the world, like as Mercedes, were able to maintain competitive sales and demand during the era.

In the context of the Emergence of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The following graphic is the result of executing the “Wordcloud” function of the natural language processing technique on secondary data containing customer sentiments regarding the Mercedes luxury car after the Russia-Ukraine war.

Figure 4.8: Wordcloud of the Sentiment Analysis of Data Containing Customer Opinions Regarding the Mercedes Luxury Automobile Following the Russia-Ukraine War; Source: Author;

The number of instances of negative terms such as “unfair pricing, unfair deal, and inefficient pricing” is greater in the secondary dataset containing customer sentiments about Mercedes-Benz luxury automobiles than it was prior to the Russia-Ukraine war, as shown by the graph. The polarity-related results for each available sample from the secondary dataset derived from sentiment analysis are presented in tabular format as follows:

Figure 4.9: Estimation of the Polarity of Each Customer’s Sentiment in the Event of a Post-Russian-Ukrainian War Situation; Source: Author

According to the tabular results, the sentiment of each customer’s opinion regarding the luxury car consists of three components: the polarity rate of positive, negative, and neutral terms, which are used to estimate the final sentiment of the entire sample. (Jain & Dandannavar, 2016). Using the “Lambda” and “Compound” functions, the sentiment of all samples after the commencement of the war between Russia and Ukraine is computed as follows:

Figure 4.10: Sentiment Outcome of Customer’s Opinion regarding Luxury Car after the Russia-Ukraine War; Source: Author

The frequency of customers with a negative opinion about the affordability of a Mercedes luxury car is approximately 81.42% of the total sample size, while the ratio of consumers with a positive opinion about the automobile industry is approximately 16.44%.

Figure 4.11: Customer Attitudes Towards Mercedes Luxury Automobile Following the Russia-Ukraine War; Source: Author

Due to external factors such as inflation, supply chain disruption, and economic sanctions, the number of customers with a negative opinion regarding the affordability of Mercedes-Benz luxury vehicles is significantly higher than the number of consumers with a positive opinion.

Summary

Comparing the results of sentiment analysis conducted before and after the Russia-Ukraine war reveals that the percentage of customers with a negative opinion regarding the affordability of Mercedes luxury cars increased by 6 percent after the conflict. The irrational increase in respective costs as a result of a significant disruption in the supply chain and procurement of raw materials for its production is the cause of the increase in the number of negative attitudes among global customers towards luxury automobiles. In conclusion, it can be stated that the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has had a significant negative impact on the attitudes and purchasing decisions of global consumers regarding Mercedes and other luxury vehicles.

Chapter 5: Discussion

Overview

Based on the analysis of secondary data, it has been determined that the war between Russia and Ukraine has had a significant impact on the demand and supply of the global automobile industry, with the negative impact being most pronounced in the luxury car segment. The beginning of the war between Russia and Ukraine has significantly disrupted the global supply chain of automobile components, such as lithium, which are crucial to the production of luxury and nonluxury car segments. As a result of the negative impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine on the global supply system for automobile parts, respective companies, including luxury car production entities, have experienced a severe shortage of raw materials, which has ultimately led to an increase in the price of manufactured automobile models. (Crozet & Hinz, 2020). After the war between Russia and Ukraine, the number of dissatisfied customers increased significantly in comparison to the pre-war situation, resulting in a significant increase in the production costs of luxury cars in the global automobile industry. Referring to the results of both narrative and sentiment analysis, the following section provides significant insight into the impact of the war between Russia and Ukraine on the global luxury car market and the sentiment of global customers towards the global automobile industry.

Evaluating the Outcome of Sentiment Analysis

Sentiment analysis is an analytical technique that identifies and evaluates the emotional tone or sentiment concealed within digital text data in order to determine whether the tone of the content is positive, negative, or neutral. (Taboada, 2016). Sentiment analysis plays a crucial role in enabling businesses to comprehend the buying behaviour and satisfaction level of targeted customers towards a product or service, which enables them to take timely corrective action to improve overall performance. Using machine learning, sentiment analysis is performed to gain insight into how the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has affected global consumers’ attitudes towards automobile manufacturers and their luxury car models in terms of purchasing behaviour.

Figure 5.1: Before and after the outbreak of hostilities between Russia and Ukraine, a comparison of global customers’ attitudes towards Mercedes automobiles; Source: Author

Comments from 141 customers from various parts of the world are collected for both the pre- and post-attack situation in order to understand the difference in emotions of global customers towards the luxury model of Mercedes before and after Russia’s attack on Ukraine. Based on an analysis of secondary data collected from the portal “cars.com” regarding customer sentiment or comments for various Mercedes luxury vehicles, it was discovered that the frequency of positive sentiment for the automobile category decreased significantly following the war between Ukraine and Russia. (cars.com, 2023). According to the graphical results, before Russia’s authority invaded Ukraine the number of positive sentiments in the comments of global customers for the luxury version of Mercedes was around 25.1% of the total sample size. This means that prior to Russia’s attack on Ukraine, only 35 customers out of 141 liked the luxury model of Mercedes in terms of pricing and deal, while the frequency of negative comments for the same automobile category was 106. In other words, prior to Russia’s attack on Ukraine, approximately 74.9% of the total sample size considered the luxury model of the Mercedes brand inefficient in terms of better pricing and sales deals, while only 25.1% were positive about the version of luxury four-wheeler brand. To understand the extent of various types of negative sentiment available to customers towards the luxury version of Mercedes prior to Russia’s attack on Ukraine, a segmentation of all types of negative reviews for the automobile category is estimated and presented below:

Figure 5.2: Frequency of Negative Sentiment Towards Mercedes Luxury Model- Prior to Russia’s Attack on Ukraine; Source: Author;

The overall negative sentiment of global customers towards Mercedes’ luxury model is divided into three categories: “bad car deal,” “bad pricing,” and “very bad pricing.” According to the graph, the frequency of “very bad pricing” related negative sentiment is around forty-three, while the value of emotion “bad car deal” is thirty-three and the count for sentiment “bad pricing” is thirty-one. It means that the negative sentiment “Very Bad Pricing” is most prevalent in the opinions of customers who reviewed Mercedes’ luxury model prior to Russia’s attack on Ukraine. On the other hand, the frequency of customers expressing dissatisfaction with Mercedes’ luxury vehicles is low. To determine whether Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has affected the positive and negative sentiments of global customers towards the luxury model of automobile or not, the emotions available within the targeted customers are evaluated for both the pre- and post-attack scenarios. Following Russia’s attack on Ukraine, the sentiment expressed in customer reviews for Mercedes’ luxury version is shown in the table below;

Figure 5.3: Frequency of Negative Sentiment Towards Mercedes Luxury Model- Following Russia’s Attack on Ukraine; Source: Author;

Following Russia’s attack on Ukraine, the global supply chain system for all industries, including automobiles and raw materials, was effectively disrupted, causing luxury car manufacturing entities to become inefficient in procuring inventory at a lower cost, which eventually increased their production costs. The increase in production costs of standard and luxury versions of a car caused respective companies to charge customers a higher price for the same model during the war situation in order to mitigate the negative effects of the war’s effects such as inflation and supply shortages. The impact of the management decision of luxury car manufacturing entities is visible in the results of sentiment analysis performed for the war situation. According to the graphical results, 16.42% of 141 customers expressed positive sentiment in their reviews of Mercedes luxury models, while 81.42% expressed negative sentiment for the automobile category in terms of pricing, service, and sale deal. (cars.com, 2023). The overall negative reviews are analysed separately in order to understand the deviation in the degree of a different negative sentiment of Mercedes customers for its luxury model.

Figure 5.4: Comparative Analysis of Variance in Customer Negative Sentiments Towards Mercedes Luxury Model Before and After Russia’s Attack on Ukraine; Source: Author;

It is estimated that the total frequency of “bad car deal” related negative sentiment in Mercedes customer reviews for its luxury model after Russia’s attack on Ukraine is thirty-five, whereas the value before the attack was only thirty-three. It means that a 6.06% increase in “bad car deal” related negative sentiment among Mercedes customers has been observed following Russia’s attack on Ukraine in comparison to a pre-attack situation. Aside from that, customers of Mercedes who marked “bad pricing” related sentiment in their reviews for its luxury model prior to Russia’s attack on Ukraine increased by 41.93% after the start of the war, owing to an increase in production costs. In other words, the negative impact of Russia’s invasion on Ukraine in terms of higher mechanical part costs has been held accountable for the increase in “bad pricing” and other negative sentiments among Mercedes customers. Furthermore, a marginal decline of 18.60% is observed in the number of “very bad pricing” related sentiments in customer reviews for the luxury model of Mercedes after the Russian attack on Ukraine in comparison to a pre-attack scenario, which has been made possible due to a limited discount offer. It means that Mercedes’ brand image in terms of pricing and timely delivery of its luxury car model has suffered significantly as a result of Russia’s attack on Ukraine. (Cui, et al., 2023).

Analysis of Secondary Data Illustrated by Sentiment Analysis

On the basis of the evaluation of secondary data, it is concluded that there is an indirect relationship between the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the global automobile industry’s overall performance in terms of demand, supply, and positive consumer sentiment. Prior to the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, automobile manufacturers such as Mercedes and BMW were able to obtain the necessary raw materials, such as lithium, pistons, and other mechanical parts, from a cost-effective market such as Russia at a competitive price. Prior to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the availability of a streamlined and cost-effective supply chain system enabled global luxury car manufacturers to produce and sell their final products at a competitive price, which led to positive buying behaviour from potential customers. (Globe News Wire, 2023). The sentiment of global customers towards the luxury car model was overwhelmingly positive prior to the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, as evidenced by the results of a sentiment analysis conducted on customer reviews of the Mercedes luxury car model. From the results of sentiment analysis, it has been determined that Mercedes models such as the “Mercedes-Benz AMG GLE 63 S-Model 4Matic” and the “Mercedes-Benz S 560 Luxury Class” are significantly more expensive than their competitors. This indicates that prior to the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the frequency of positive sentiments among global customers for Mercedes and other competing luxury automobiles was relatively higher.

On the other hand, it is estimated that the beginning of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has had a negative impact on the demand and supply of the global automobile industry, with the luxury car segment experiencing the direst economic conditions. With the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war, the governments of global nations such as the United States and Europe imposed economic sanctions on Russia so that indirect force could be used to halt the invasion; this strategic action disrupted the global supply chain. (Abbassi, et al., 2023). As a result of the supply chain disruption in the global market, automobile manufacturers such as BMW and AUDI encountered significant obstacles in acquiring the necessary raw materials for the production of required automobiles, which ultimately reduced their productivity. In June 2022, the management of BMW was unable to fulfil 37% of its orders in the luxury car segment due to the negative impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine on the supply chain of automobile parts such as lithium and other mechanical components. (BMW Blog, 2023). As a consequence of the increase in global supply chain disruptions, the gap between demand and supply of automobile parts widened by more than 13 percent compared to the situation prior to the Russia-Ukraine war, resulting in an increase in the global inflation rate. As a result of the rise in the global economy’s inflation rate, the cost of production for automobile manufacturers, particularly in the luxury car segment, increased by more than 5.2% on average, reducing the purchasing power of potential consumers. (Euro News, 2023).

As a result of the increase in the price of luxury automobile models and the decline in the ability of their companies to deliver products on time, customer satisfaction decreased by more than 9 percent in 2022 compared to the situation before the Russia-Ukraine war. The results of sentiment analysis also demonstrate that the sentiment of global consumers towards the luxury car segment of the automobile industry has declined. According to the results of sentiment analysis for the post-Russia-Ukraine conflict situation, the frequency of negative sentiment for the Mercedes-Benz S-Class has decreased by approximately 6.54 percent compared to the pre-war situation, supporting the opinion of the literature. (Cars.com, 2023).

Summary

To provide a brief summary, the conflict that has been going on between Russia and Ukraine has had a significant and negative impact on the financial and non-financial standing of the global automobile industry as well as the luxury car sector of that industry. The conflict that is currently taking place between Russia and Ukraine has led to the occurrence of this consequence. In addition to this, it has been found that the outbreak of hostilities between Russia and Ukraine has had a negative impact on the attitude of customers located all over the world in relation to the luxury car market. This comes as a result of the fact that Russia and Ukraine are currently engaged in armed conflict. This has been made possible as a result of a significant increase in the rate of inflation experienced by the global economy as well as an increase in the cost of production experienced by automobile manufacturers. Both of these factors have contributed to an increase in the price of producing automobiles.

Chapter 6: Conclusion and Recommendation

Conclusion

Based on the evaluation of the research study, it is concluded that consumer behaviour plays a significant role in determining the performance of an industry such as the automobile sector in terms of both economic and non-economic metrics, and this ultimately decides its future sustainability. Based on secondary data analysis, it is determined that the start of the war between Russia and Ukraine has had a negative impact on the productivity, sales, and demand of global automobile companies such as BMW and AUDI, but the critical fall is more noticeable in the luxury car segment. Since the occurrence of the war between Russia and Ukraine has significantly increased the rate of inflation of the global economy by disrupting the global supply chain, customers’ affordability rate has decreased, and this has eventually reduced their sentiment towards luxury car models.

According to a comparison of sentiment analysis done for Mercedes in terms of metrics such as pricing, service, and overall sales deal before and after Russia’s attack on Ukraine, a significant deviation in consumer perception towards the segment of a motor vehicle is observed. Following Russia’s attack on Ukraine, the export of cost-effective mechanical parts from Russia and other nearby countries was hampered in terms of reaching automobile companies’ production sites, which eventually increased respective demand in the global market. The sharp increase in demand for mechanical parts in the world’s automobile industry caused a significant increase in the price of inventory, eventually making it impossible for companies like BMW, Mercedes, and Audi to obtain necessary raw materials on time and at a low cost. The increased inefficiency of automobile corporations such as BMW and Mercedes in terms of obtaining automotive parts on time and at the lowest possible cost prevented them from offering their various categories of vehicles, such as luxury vehicles, at competitive prices, and thus prevented them from meeting customers’ expectations.

The increase in the deviation in global car entities’ performance in meeting customers’ buying needs and expectations in terms of competitive pricing and fast delivery has increased the frequency of negative sentiments in their reviews. The negative impact of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia on customer sentiment towards the automobile industry and its luxury segment is supported by the results of sentiment analysis performed for Mercedes’ luxury model as well. In other words, if car companies had cared about potential customers’ feelings and expectations during Russia’s attack on Ukraine, they would have been successful in reducing the negative impact of the war situation on their feelings.

Recommendation

According to the analysis of secondary data evaluation results, global automobile companies are advised to focus on using an alternative to procure cost-effective raw materials needed in the production of cars so that a competitive pricing-related strategy can be deployed to have favourable customer sentiment. Aside from that, business owners of luxury car companies are advised to use a cause and effective marketing style, as well as a competitive supply chain system, in order to elicit a positive sentiment from customers by delivering ordered products at competitive prices and on time. Based on the results of sentiment analysis and secondary data evaluation, it is suggested to the authorities of the world’s automobile corporations to find a way to reduce their reliance on a single market for the production and pricing of their various car segments in order to maintain a sustainable customer base. It means that by empowering local vendors and suppliers to supply automotive parts, global automakers will be able to avoid the identified negative impact of the war situation on their overall performance in terms of market reach, customer sentiment, brand image, sales, profitability, and productivity.

Limitation

The primary limitation of the research work is that it has not evaluated the impact of the war between Russia and Ukraine on customer sentiment towards luxury cars by directly communicating with end consumers, which raises the possibility of inaccuracy in data collection when generalising the results. Another limitation of the implication-based assessment is that sentiment analysis is performed only for the Mercedes car model, making it impossible to determine whether or not there is a decline in the frequency of positive sentiments for other luxury automobile companies.

Two keys, API key and API secret key, are required for scraping any data from LinkedIn, graph API is required for scraping Facebook data, and the same is true for Instagram; these are required by the company to prevent illegal data usage.

Prior to the year 2020, it was easy to scrape any social media website for this type of information. However, after this date, scraping was made illegal, and a unique security key was introduced so that every user can retrieve the necessary data using only their own account without invading the privacy of others. Even so, many websites have blocked scraping, which you can verify by appending “/robots.txt” to the end of the desired website’s URL.

If any platform, especially a social media platform, is to be eliminated, the corresponding key or security code must be used and replaced for each execution, as they always expire.

Future Scope

Future research will be more accurate if the sentiment of customers for various luxury car manufacturers is analyzed, as this will allow it to be determined whether or not the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has had an effect on one particular automaker or on all of them. Aside from that, it would be preferable to conduct a primary survey with the end customers of the luxury car segment in order to determine whether or not the Russia-Ukraine war has affected their opinions regarding the purchase of the automobile segment. This would be done so that it can be determined whether or not the war has affected their opinions regarding the purchase of the automobile segment.

Chapter 7: Referencing

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Abstract

Table of Contents

List Of Figures

List Of Appendix

List Of Abbreviation

Chapter 1: Introduction

Overview

Rationale and Problem Statement

Aim

Objectives

Research Question

Research Gap

Research Importance

Chapter 2: Literature Review

A summary of the automobile industry and luxury automobiles

A summary of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine

Connection and Impact of the Identified Geopolitical Conflict on Automotive Industry Competency

Impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine on Consumers’ Sentiments Toward Luxury Automobiles

Chapter 3: Research Methodology

Overview

Research Strategy

Research Philosophy

Research Design

Research Approach

Data Collection and Sampling

Data Analysis

Ethical Consideration

Chapter 4: Result

Overview

Web scraping using Beautiful Soup

Sentiment Analysis

In the context of the pre-Russian-Ukrainian War era

In the context of the Emergence of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Summary

Chapter 5: Discussion

Overview

Evaluating the Outcome of Sentiment Analysis

Analysis of Secondary Data Illustrated by Sentiment Analysis

Summary

Chapter 6: Conclusion and Recommendation

Conclusion

Recommendation

Limitation

Future Scope

Chapter 7: Referencing

Reference

Bibliography