Review of climate change practice

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Review of climate change practice for South Pacific Island Nations: Rainfall

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Abstract

The small island developing states are in the South Pacific which are found to be vulnerable to the effects for the climate changes. It is mainly due to the proximity for the ocean and the reliance for the resources and transportation. The changes are to the physical environment with the temperature, pH and the sea level rise and storms and waves that are considered to be detected with affecting the biodiversity with the shifts in the distribution. The timing is based on the natural events with the increased costs of energy and the mechanical damage with the focus on the handling of the damages from cyclones. The food supplies are at the risks with the heavy reliance on the coastal fisheries. The dispersing nature and the heterogeneity for the SIDS which tend to present the challenge for the localised climate change projection with the adaptation strategies. South Pacific includes the SIDS with the work on the change of the climate and then funding on the needs to realize the adaptation options. It is also for linking on the physical science for the societal and the economic impacts. The engaging of the women and the remote populations are related to the climate talks that will help in improving the resilience of the long term. The oceans and the atmosphere are linked with the 93% of the excess heat which is caused through the global warming in the anthropogenic CO2. Hence, there are changes which are predicted to have a major profound effect on the atmospheric and the biological process that affects the ocean ecosystem and the services.

Table of Contents

Introduction

In the report, the focus is on the summary of the effect of the climate changes on the physical ocean processes, biodiversity and then there are factors related to the different SIDS that reflects on the international climate politics. The Sustainable Development Goal and the Ocean issues are reflected with the negotiation of the groups that are for handling the subjects which are relevant to the simulation of the project environmental conditions. The scenarios are referred to be the representative concentration pathway which are used by the scientists as one of the standardised set and the model simulation. The basis are related to the Intertropical Convergence Zone which is directly affected by the larger scale of the climatic drivers. There are variations based on the longer term of the variability which is mainly governed by the interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. There are trade winds which are considered to be the result of the ocean currents with the equatorial water that comes into the wester tropical Pacific. It tends to include the prevailing of the winds which tend to cause the upwelling and the coastal upwelling on the coast of South Africa. This comes with bringing the relatively cool water which is nutrient rich and results in the tongue that is for extending along with the equator. There are assessment reports which are related to the variability of warming, and the warming is more intense with ICZ that directly affects Kiribati and Nauru. This comes with the less warning experienced through more easterly SIDS (Iese et al., 2017). There are wind speed and the other modelling work which tend to suggest about the storm severity and the surge which is experienced through the Pacific SIDS. The understanding is based on the intensity of the storm with the increased intensity of cyclone that has made the little severity of the surge.

Ocean Acidification

With the beginning of the Industrial Era, there are anthropogenic carbon dioxide which has led to the decrease of )0.06 pH units for the tropical Pacific. The current rate of the decrease is approximately 0.2 units which includes the projections due to the decrease by 0.15 units. Hence, there are predictions which could be seen relative to the averages of the model with predicting the lower variances in pH. The decrease in the pH of the seawater tend to correspond to the decreased concentration of the dissolved carbonate ions which include the lowering of the potential for the . This includes the saturation stage of aragonite and calcite that has been continuing with the decline in the region of the rates. There are decreased forms includes the gyre regions with the calcification is more difficult for the organisms (Emont et al., 2017).

Sea level Rise

The IPCC AR5 includes the high confidence with the robust evidences that includes the high agreement of the sea level rise which is considered to be the major factor for the change in the climate threats with the low lying land on the island and the atolls. There are global mean sea levels which are steadily rising at the rate per year. Hence, the data is from satellites and the tide gauges with the indication is about the rates of SLR that includes the Solomon Island. The high rate is partially mainly due to the decadal climate variations (McGree et al., 2019).

Current Assumptions

With the change of the climate there have been changes in the numerous floods and the droughts that holds the greenhouse gas effects with the changes to the climate system. The latest climate research highlights about the clear reduction in the cool season rainfall. It is assumed that the data is chosen with following the trends that are for the higher amount of the variations. The planning is for the water resources, agriculture and the irrigation and the associated infrastructure. The understanding is based on the characterising of the stream flow and the precipitation (cCharan et al., 2018). The assumptions of the stationary climate tends to be relevant with the characterising of the future event. There are natural systems tend to fluctuate with the unchanged of the variability. The idea is based on the stationary climate that is challenged through the substantial human driven climate change,

Literature Review

The study includes the gain of understanding with the rainfall trends for the particular study with the focus on different effects. The rainfall trends are for showing on the date and the recorded rainfall, if the area is receiving the greater or the less amount of the water which is due to precipitation. The trends are positive, negative and insignificant through the statistical analysis. The information is not consistent and so it is based on the study that includes the hydrology which affects the different aspects like the surface water, floods and the hydrological cycle. The climate is the major factor for the area of the tropical climate with receiving the high recorded rainfall for the year. The comparison is for the desert climate with the effect of the change in the climate. This is for the average temperature and the rainfall. The methods of the analysis includes the development through showing the different trends. Mann-Kendall test is the common trend test which is for the variations that allow the calculate the different trends (Currenti et al., 2019). Hence, there is a need to focus on the form of the rainfall data which includes the speculations for the current factors. The focus is on the stations with the record of the data that allow the studies with the weather that needs to include the rainfall trend analysis. The assistance is based on the Pacific Island with the different multiple rain stations as the data points. The understanding is based on the assistance with the selection of the stations across the state. The study includes the region with the hydrology with the rainfall which is considered to be the important part. Hence, there are changes which are amounting for the rainfall that directly affects the hydrology and then there are changes related to the analysis of the rainfall data. The areas of hydrology rely on the rainfall with the desired area that consistent of the design of catchment and the systems of stormwater (Pardoe et al., 2018).

Climate and the climate changes

The rainfall is important for the hotter and the dry climates with the focus on the amounts which is not precise. Hence, South Pacific Islands are considered to be the great example for the same. Here, the Australian hydro-climatic time series are for the greatest variabilities which are then compared to the other components. Here, the climatic modes are for the Southern annual mode with the three modes of Nino Oscillation, Interdecadal Pacific and Southern Annual model are considered to affect the area of the climate which are related to the changes and the high concentration for the greenhouse gases. The CSIRO is for the research with the uncertainty that includes the ability to restrict the future greenhouse gas emissions. The focus is on the higher concentration of the carbon dioxide which are related to the higher temperature and the lower amount of rainfall with the seeing of the current and past performances of the rainfall trend analysis (Hanich et al., 2018). The trends are identified with the area climate like the temperature with the method of creating the temperature with the changes that are defined through handling the steady approach with the anomaly that includes the variation in the future that is beneficial for the current and the past performances of rain.

The trends are identified with the statistics and data with the drought and the climate extreme with the need for the high quality of the information for the climate. It is for the assistance in placing the events with providing the contexts to understand the impacts on the human and environment. The locations are related to provide the information with environmental data like the rainfall, temperature, humidity and the vapor pressure. The records are related to the quality and the environmental data which is seen for the station to be upgraded and downgraded. The recognition of the data is on the data with the ensuring of the accuracy (Bell et al., 2016).

Impacts

The change in the rainfall directly amounts to the major impact for the water management, climate, surface water and agriculture. With this, there are variations depending on the locations and the rainfall areas which will include the forms related to the information for assessing the actual impacts. The changes are in precipitation of the area which are considered important for determining the impacts of the change in climate. Hence, the changes are determined through hydrological cycle which is considered to be the notable area that is impacted by the climate variations and change. There are changes in the behaviour with the magnitude and the frequency that relates to the hydrological events. The changes are for the old storm water which might not be able to handle the increased inflow that is due to the increased magnitude of the rainfall. The results are in the systems which are being overtaxes. Hence, there are climate changes with the variations in the impact on the natural and the human systems.

Other impacts that are seen regularly are the droughts and there are varied length which is due to the temperature and the rainfall or the flood (Bryant, 2018). There are variation effects that range from the larger floods that can lead to the damages for the infrastructure. There are presence of the period with the drought that puts a major problem on the supply of water. It leads to the potential of the failure to supply as well. The example is related to the extreme case of the drought that is mainly with increased temperature and the elongated rain periods.

Problem Statement

The rainfall trend analysis tend to focus on the area which is about using the data and then analysing about the changes in the trends of the rainfall. The selection is based on understanding the climate change which is for the understanding of the extreme rainfall events. The past changes in the rainfall event is critical with providing the reliable prediction with future changes. There are significant effect on the water infrastructure and the flood protection structure. They are for the handling of varied intensity and frequency where the trends are related to the non-stationary climate.

The data involves the identification of the trends like the Australian bureau of meteorology with the focus on the local water management authorities with the data records that are set by the different locations. The focus is on the quality of data with the collection at the different stations which is for the location, length of the records, and the data quality. The various methods are defined on the regression analysis with the rainfall trend analysis which tend to indicate the trends for the rainfall data with the choice of the areas and then handling the uncontrolled environmental events (Wairju, 2017). The rainfall analysis includes the trends with the rainfall data with the trends that includes the factors for the uncontrollable environmental events, with the study location. The critical factors includes the forms with the major concern with the effects on the rainfall useful tools on the current effects with the future monitoring on the rainfall trends which includes the implementation of the strategies.

The rainfall tend to impact on the natural disasters with the floods with the significant economic damage with the danger for the human life that comes on the increased rainfall intensities. The indicator is based on the forms which relates to the stationary climate assumption. The probability on the extreme rainfall events. The trends are related to the rainfall drought that includes the high temperatures and the lower rainfall. The understanding is based on the extending of the years with more severe droughts. The analysis shows about the different and the varying rain with the uncertainty that includes the dry, wet and then holding the constant factors. The everyday life with the strategies on the water restrictions with the lack of the water to maintain on the healthy crops. The previous forms includes the severe temperatures.

The rainfall stations includes the recording of the period with the reasonable history with the complete data set that comes with the analysis of the data. The SPSS and excel with the initial ideas with the identification on the larger scale mapping (Taylor et al., 2019).

Methodology

The methodology is based on the trends and changes with the rainfall characteristics with collecting rainfall data with the central highland, that comes with meeting the different selection areas with the location that highlights about the collection and the changes. The data collection is for organizing the data and then handling the rainfall characteristics with identifying on the trends. The process consists about the selection of the records with the data and statistical tests and results (Malsale et al., 2018).

The identification is based on the changes with the trends and then understanding the data timeline with the spans for the time series that are related to allow on the multiple small timelines. This involves the increased and the decreased changes with identification on the results with the statistical tests. The tests are based on the reassurance on the tests with the results that are reliable. The selection method are for ensuring the data and produced results with the data on the needing of reliable resources. The criteria is based on the data with the South Pacific Island with the finding of the stations with the visualization on the stations. The complete data series includes the data percentage, with the chosen locations with the data meeting on the statistical tests (Abedin et al., 2019).

Data Collection

The rainfall data collection includes the recording stations on the minimum temperature and maximum temperature, evaporation and the recording of the data. The advantages is based on the labelling with the gathering on the examples with the record of the rainfall with interpolation and then there are basis on the source of the data. The data organization involves the state government with the natural climate variability that is for avoiding the effects of trends. The desired characteristics includes the time period with the greenhouse gas induced on the climate change with the reasonability on the supply system and water corporations. The time period is based on the recommendation with the natural climate variations. This comes with the variability that includes the millennium with the greenhouse gases with the climate behaviour with the levels of the global warming and then handling the broken up into the small time period.

 

Statistical Test

The tests are related to the study with the refined working with manipulation of the data and tests. The exceedance probability includes the completion with consisting on the recorded value with the date of recording. The probability distribution function includes the normal distribution with the calculation with each value that is based on the mass curve with arrangement of the data on the order of collection. The weather anomaly graph includes the finding of the outliers with the continual high and low within the sets. The methods are results includes the aligning of the desired length of the rainfall with the results on the data that includes the calculation on the display of the timelines of the anomalies (Granderson, 2017).

Mann-Kendall/ Sens Slope

The purpose is based on the monotonic upward trends with the downward trend for the monotonic upwards with the variable forms that increases with time. The trends are related to the advantage on the residuals on the fitted regression line on the distributed on the non-parametric tests. The tests on the weather to reject on the null hypothesis with no trends that are monotonic. The tests are related to the study with the use of Sen slop with the identification on the slope of the trends with the combination of tests.

Results

The results are related to the forms with the time period on the recurrence levels. In includes the forms with the similar return periods

Discussion

The discussion is based on the analysis with the observations that includes the changes with the occurring at the different location. The results are related to the events with the noticeable forms with the Kirk Reservoir with the close proximity with the resemblance for the tests. The exceedance probability with the normal distribution results that includes the spread of positive and the negative results with the return on the trends with the no major trends and periods. Kirks Reservoir includes the little change in the results with the recurrence interval results with following no pattern on the continued decreased on the consecutive periods. The results are related to focus on some variations on the station. They are related to handling the SIDS which is for the reliance of the marine resources and the concentration of the settlement in the coastal region (Connell, 2019). The summary is based on the climate change for the physical ocean processes, biodiversity and the socio-economics which are for the particular focus on the different islands. The further details are related to the SIDS which reflects on the forms and promotion of formal ocean governance with successful campaigning for the ocean of Sustainable Development Goals. The understanding is also about the different emission scenarios which have been devised for the proper use of the model simulations for projecting the environmental conditions. The scenarios are for the representative concentration pathways where the scientists are working as the standardised set of the scenarios. They tend to allow the robust comparison of the results and the simulation of the model (Cambers et al., 2017).

Conclusion

 

The goal of the thesis is based on identifying the trends with the changes with the rainfall characteristics. The assumptions are based on the investigation with the results related to the stationary climate. The assumptions are based on addressing the changes in cool season rainfall which might not be easy to detect the data with monthly and daily data. The results are related to the variations which does not following the pattern to indicate the changes. The outcome of the study is based on identifying the study with handling the changes on the seasonal rainfall with the change on the rainfall of months on the seasons that have changed (Alandenola et al., 2016). The study is based on the negative anomalies with the drought experience and the positive anomalies with the further study in the area that comes with the variations in how the rainfall that tend to change.

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