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BUS9040M: Decision Analysis for Managers
Assignment 4: Case Study Analysis – AMECO Relocation Decision Problem
Introduction to the case study
This case study is based on a real case; of course, anonymized for obvious reasons. The case study
considers the problem of Agricultural Machinery Exporters Company (AMECO), a company
considering relocating its manufacturing facilities from the UK to an overseas country. In making its
decision, the company needs to take into account a number of political risks that it will face if it decides
to go ahead with the relocation. The decision problem is made complex by the large number of
combinations of possible events that can occur and the challenges that arise from the need to
structure the problem in a way which makes analysis of the problem tractable. Note that all of the
monetary values presented in the case have already been expressed as present values to avoid the
additional complication of applying discounted cash flow analysis to the data. Carefully read the case
study and answer the question that follow.
AMECO Relocation Decision Problem
Agricultural Machinery Exporters Company (AMECO), which has its headquarters in the UK, is
considering opening a manufacturing plant in an overseas country and transferring much of its current
UK-based production to the new plant. After extensive data collection and visits by managers to a
number of possible countries, Almeria has been identified as the most promising country for a new
plant. A site near the capital, Lasia, appears to be highly suitable and a new state-of-the art
manufacturing facility could be constructed there very quickly.
The decision on whether to go ahead with the move to Almeria will be based on the level of monetary
savings in production costs that it is hoped would be generated over the next 10 years by opening a
plant there. However, there are a number of risks associated with these savings and, for simplicity,
the level of savings is categorised as either high, medium or low. If a move to Almeria does go ahead,
AMECO will review the success of its investment after the first five years and will have the option of
withdrawing from that country and returning operations to the UK if this appears to be appropriate.
Almeria has a relatively new democracy which was created following the overthrow of a military
dictatorship that had ruled the country for nearly thirty years. However, there is considerable poverty
and unemployment rates have recently been as high as 38%. The current government is therefore
keen to attract foreign investors, but it only has a narrow majority in the country’s parliament. Despite
the efforts of the government, widespread corruption has persisted and Almeria is ranked 5th in the
World league table of corruption. Corruption is partly responsible for the neglect of the country’s road
and rail systems which are now amongst the worst in the region.
If a decision is made to relocate to Almeria there is a risk that a new government will come into power
and nationalize all foreign investments. There is thought to be only a 0.05 probability of this
happening during the first five years, but if it did occur, the loss of assets would cause AMECO to be
worse off by $75 million (in present value terms) compared to the returns that would have been
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generated by continuing manufacturing in the UK. Nationalization would also cause AMECO’s
association with the country to end immediately. There is also an estimated 0.3 probability that within
the next five years, restrictions will be imposed by the government on the convertibility of local
currency into foreign currency. This would reduce savings by an estimated $43 million (nationalization
and currency restrictions can be assumed to be mutually exclusive events).
Insurance can be purchased to cover both of these political risks for the first five years of operations
by paying a total premium which has a present value of $16 million. (Note that the insurance can only
be purchased at the start of the five years). If the company does purchase political risk insurance and
nationalization occurs in the first five years then the insurance will only cover the loss of assets. It is
expected that any savings generated before nationalization would be canceled out by the costs of
relocation and so would have present value of $0. If nationalization does not take place it is thought
that there is a 0.6 probability that in the first five years the investment would generate high savings
having an estimated present value of $85 million. There is also an estimated 0.25 probability that
medium savings, with a present value $48 million, would be earned in the first five years and a 0.15
probability these savings will be low and only amount to $5 million. If no political insurance has been
purchased, currency restrictions would reduce these savings by the estimated amount given above.
At the end of the first five years the company would have to decide whether to continue to operate
the plant in Almeria for another five years or whether to transfer operations back to the UK. However,
this decision will only be considered if the savings in the first five years have been low. If a decision
to withdraw is made then the plant will be sold for a return with an estimated present value of $10
million. If AMECO decide to continue operations in Almeria for a further five years the risk of
nationalization during this period is estimated to be 0.15. However, the risk of restrictions on the
convertibility of local currency is estimated to be the same as that in the first five years.
The total insurance premium to cover these risks for the second five years would have a present value
of $12.8 million. If insurance is purchased and nationalization occurs in the second five years then it is
assumed that gross savings made before nationalization will again be cancelled out by the costs arising
from the disruption. For simplicity, the present values of other costs and savings occurring under each
set of conditions in the second five years are assumed to be the same as those in the first 5 years, with
a 20% reduction to take into account the time value of money. However, it is thought that the
probabilities of high, medium and low returns in the second five year period will be dependent on the
level of returns achieved in the first five years as shown in the table below.
Second five years

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For example, the table shows that if savings in the first five years have been high then there is a 0.60
probability that high savings will be maintained in the next five years, a 0.3 probability that only
medium savings will be generated and a 0.10 probability that savings will be low. The other two rows
can be interpreted in a similar manner. It can be assumed that if the company stays in Almeria for ten
years, it will sell the plant at the end of this period and hence generate extra returns with a present
value of $6 million.
Question (approximately 500 words in total, excluding decision tree diagram)
Using decision tree analysis, structure the decision problem faced by AMECO and recommend the
alternative or strategy that the company should pursue to maximize expected savings. Explain/justify
your recommendations.
Guidance notes:
• Present your decision tree diagrams, clearly showing all probabilities and net values at the end of
the branches
• Follow the conventions of constructing decision trees, such as the basic shapes distinguishing
decision nodes from chance nodes
• Explain/justify your recommendations