14 June 2016
HIGHLIGHTS
• Crude oil prices rallied to a 2016 high above $51/bbl in June, stoked
by continuing outages in Nigeria and Canada as well as a steady
decline in US oil production. May marked the third straight month of
average price rises in Brent and WTI futures.
• Outages in OPEC and non-OPEC countries cut global oil supply by
nearly 0.8 mb/d in May. At 95.4 mb/d, output stood 590 kb/d below
a year earlier – the first significant drop since early 2013. Non-OPEC
supply growth is expected to return in 2017 at a modest 0.2 mb/d,
after declining by 0.9 mb/d in 2016.
• OPEC crude output fell by 110 kb/d in May to 32.61 mb/d as big
losses in Nigeria due to oil sector sabotage more than offset higher
Middle East output. Iran has clearly emerged as OPEC’s fastest source
of supply growth this year, with an anticipated gain of 700 kb/d.
• Global oil demand growth in 1Q16 has been revised upwards to 1.6
mb/d and for 2016 growth will now be 1.3 mb/d. In 2017 we will
see the same rate of growth and global demand will reach 97.4
mb/d. Non-OECD nations will provide most of the expected gains in
both years. The growth rate is slightly above the previous trend,
mostly due to relatively low crude oil prices.
• Commercial inventories in the OECD increased from March levels by
14.4 mb to stand at 3 065 mb by end-April, an impressive 222 mb
above one year earlier. As the US driving season kicks off, OECD
gasoline stocks stand above average levels and last year in absolute
and days of forward demand terms. There is a similar picture in
China.
• Refinery runs in 2Q16 are suffering from deepening outages.
Throughput is nearly flat year-on-year, as refiners finally catch up
with maintenance postponed from 2015. The seasonal ramp-up to
3Q16 is expected to be the largest on record, surging by about
2.3 mb/d quarter-on-quarter.
CORRIGENDUM
TABLE OF CONTENTS
HIGHLIGHTS ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..1
BALANCING ACT…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….3
DEMAND……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………4
Summary …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………4
Global Overview ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………4
The show rolls on, into 2017………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..5
OECD……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..5
Non-OECD…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….9
Other Non-OECD…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 11
SUPPLY ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 14
Summary ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 14
OPEC crude oil supply……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 15
Nigerian plunge…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 19
Non-OPEC overview …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 20
OECD………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 21
North America……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 21
US oil production to turn corner in 2017 ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 22
North Sea……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 25
Non-OECD…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 26
Latin America …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 26
Asia………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 27
Africa ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 27
Former Soviet Union……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 27
Biofuels……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 29
Biofuels skew monthly and annual changes …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 29
STOCKS ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 30
Summary ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 30
Global overview………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 30
OECD inventory position at end-April and revisions to preliminary data……………………………………………………………… 31
Recent OECD industry stock changes ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 32
OECD Americas…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 32
OECD Europe………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 33
OECD Asia Oceania………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 34
Recent developments in Non-OECD stocks……………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 34
Recent developments in floating storage ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 35
PRICES……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 37
Summary ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 37
Market overview…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 37
Spot crude oil prices…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 38
Spot product prices ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 40
Panama Canal expands: implications for global oil flows ……………………………………………………………………………………………….. 42
Freight …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 44
REFINING ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 45
Summary ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 45
Global refinery overview……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 45
Seasonality of crude oil demand ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 46
Margins……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 47
OECD refinery throughput ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 48
Canadian refining – feeling the heat? ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 49
Non-OECD refinery throughput ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 50
TABLES ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 52
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY – OIL MARKET REPORT MARKET OVERVIEW
14 JUNE 2016 3
-2.5

-1.5 -0.5 signs of optimism. Canada’s shut-in production will fully return in the near future but the troubles in Nigeria and

92 94

0.5
1.5
2.5
3.5
90
96
98
100
1Q13 3Q14 1Q16 3Q17
mb/d Demand/Supply Balance until 4Q17* mb/d
Impl. stock ch.&misc (RHS) Demand Supply*
BALANCING ACT
At half-time in 2016 we are ideally placed to look back at a turbulent six months and take our first look
into 2017. Even in January when the price of oil fell to its lowest level since November 2003 we knew
that the oil market would re-balance in the reasonably foreseeable future, even though, in the
meantime, a lot of surplus oil would be added to bulging stocks. We now know that less oil has been
stock-piled than we originally expected. In January, we estimated that the surplus of supply over demand
in 1H16 would be 1.5 mb/d. Today, with all the usual caveats about data revisions to come, it looks as if
the figure is about 0.8 mb/d. Between January and today two main factors have transformed the
outlook: first, oil demand growth has been significantly stronger than we expected. Firm data for 1Q16
shows year-on-year growth of 1.6 mb/d versus an initial expectation of 1.2 mb/d. Accordingly, we have
slightly increased our demand growth number for 2016 as a whole to 1.3 mb/d. In last month’s Report
we highlighted India’s place at the top of the demand growth league table; in this Report we see that
gasoline demand in the United States is very strong and on course to grow by 255 kb/d, or 2.8%, this
year.
The second main factor to transform the outlook has
been unexpected supply cuts. Canada’s wildfires at their
peak removed up to 1.5 mb/d of production capacity; in
Nigeria, militant action has forced production down to
thirty-year lows; and Libya remains a long way from
significantly increasing its production despite occasional
Libya look to be long-standing. This current list of shutins might soon be augmented by Venezuela where the
deteriorating situation could affect the operations of the
oil industry. In addition to the unplanned shut-ins, our forecast of production falls due to lower oil prices
remains intact. The non-OPEC group of countries will see production fall by 0.9 mb/d in 2016, including a
500 kb/d fall for US shale output.
At the beginning of the month OPEC provided some clarity to the market by deciding not to re-introduce
any form of production management. For planning purposes we have assumed only modest growth in
production from member countries. So, assuming no further surprises, in 2H16 we expect the oil market
to be balanced, with a small stock draw in 3Q16 offset by a small stock build in 4Q16.
In this report we publish for the first time our 2017 outlook. We see global oil demand growing at the
same rate as in 2016 – 1.3 mb/d, and non-OPEC supply growing by a modest 0.2 mb/d. Again, on the
planning assumption that OPEC oil production grows modestly in 2017 we expect to see global oil stocks
build slightly in 1H17 before falling slightly more in 2H17. For the year as a whole there will be a very
small stock draw of 0.1 mb/d. We must stress that this is our first look at 2017 and the huge number of
moving parts will see us amend our numbers accordingly. However, to return to a phrase from last
month’s Report, the direction of travel seems to be clear.
At halfway in 2016 the oil market looks to be balancing; but we must not forget that there are large
volumes of shut-in production, mainly in Nigeria and Libya, that could return to the market, and the
strong start for oil demand growth seen this year might not be maintained. In any event, following three
consecutive years of stock build at an average rate close to 1 mb/d there is an enormous inventory
overhang to clear. This is likely to dampen prospects of a significant increase in oil prices.
DEMAND INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY – OIL MARKET REPORT
4 14 JUNE 2016
DEMAND
Summary
• In this month’s Report we publish for the first time our 2017 global oil demand forecast. Next year
we see demand growing by 1.3 mb/d to reach 97.4 mb/d, a growth rate that is currently the same
as our expectation for 2016. Non-OECD nations will provide the majority of the expected gains in
both years. The growth rate is slightly above the previous trend, attributable mainly to relatively low
crude oil prices.
• The latest demand statistics – i.e. largely March/April numbers – show a mixed picture. Many
countries show stronger year-on-year (y-o-y) gains than previously anticipated or at least less rapid
declines, specifically the US, Japan, Turkey, Poland and the Netherlands. Weaker oil demand
conditions emerged elsewhere, particularly in more hamstrung economies, such as Argentina, Iraq
and Nigeria.
• At an upwardly revised 95.2 mb/d, the latest 1Q16 demand estimate shows global oil deliveries
rising by 1.6 mb/d y-o-y, with non-OECD economies accounting for nine out of every ten extra barrels.
• Asia remains at the core of projections of global oil demand growth, supported by strong gains in
India, Korea and China. India remains the world’s growth leader, as highlighted in last month’s
Report, and in March oil demand rose by an estimated 0.5 mb/d y-o-y. Preliminary estimates for April
point towards a further y-o-y gain of 0.4 mb/d.
• Having paused for breath somewhat towards the end of 2015, the US has rediscovered its earlier
vigour. After a six-month hiatus from September 2015 to February 2016 when US demand dipped by
an average 0.1 mb/d y-o-y, robust growth has resumed, averaging +0.4 mb/d y-o-y in the three
months to May.
Global Oil Demand (2015-2017)
(million barrels per day)
1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 2015 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 2016 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 2017

Africa	4.1	4.1	4.0	4.2	4.1	4.2	4.3	4.2	4.3	4.3	4.4	4.4	4.3	4.4	4.4
Americas Asia/Pacific Europe	30.9 30.9 31.6 31.2 31.1 32.3 31.7 31.6 32.6 32.0 14.1 14.3 14.9 14.4 14.4	30.9 31.1 31.6 31.3 31.2 33.1 32.5 32.6 33.6 33.0 14.3 14.4 14.7 14.3 14.4	31.0 31.2 31.8 31.5 31.4 34.1 33.4 33.3 34.3 33.8 14.2 14.5 14.7 14.3 14.4
FSU Middle East	4.6 7.6	4.9 8.3	5.1 8.6	5.0 8.1	4.9 8.2	4.9 7.8	4.9 8.2	5.0 8.7	5.0 8.3	5.0 8.2	4.8 8.0	5.0 8.4	5.1 8.8	5.1 8.4	5.0 8.4
World Annual Chg (%) Annual Chg (mb/d) Changes from last OMR (mb/d)	93.62 94.13 95.68 95.50 94.74 95.17 95.48 96.75 96.87 96.07 96.53 96.83 98.04 98.04 97.36
1.8 1.6 0.0	2.2 2.0 0.0	2.6 2.4 0.0	1.4 1.4 0.0	2.0 1.9 0.0	1.7 1.6 0.2	1.4 1.3 0.2	1.1 1.1 0.1	1.4 1.4 0.1	1.4 1.3 0.1	1.4 1.4 –	1.4 1.4 –	1.3 1.3 –	1.2 1.2 –	1.3 1.3 –

Global Overview
There are two main demand developments in this month’s Report. Firstly, the 2016 global demand
estimate is marginally higher; secondly, we have extended the forecast to 2017 (see the show rolls on,
into 2017). With revised growth of 1.3 mb/d in 2016, the latest global demand estimate of 96.1 mb/d is
0.1 mb/d higher than the previous figure. Resurgent demand growth in the US, coupled with lower than
anticipated declines in Japan account for the majority of the adjustment. Significant additions to Turkey,
Poland and the Netherlands also played a role. India’s ascendancy to the top of the volume growth
league first occurred in 1Q16 propelled by rapid gains in road transport demand. In 2H16, India’s
demand will grow by an impressive +8.3% y-o-y but China’s +3.3% demand growth will be greater in
volume terms.
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY – OIL MARKET REPORT DEMAND
14 JUNE 2016 5
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
-1
3 2 1 0
1Q2012 1Q2013 1Q2014 1Q2015 1Q2016
mb/d Global y-on-y Absolute Growth
Total Products Growth Rate
LPG Naphtha Gasoline
JetKero Diesel RFO
Other Total (RHS)
-250
0
250
500
750
1000
1Q2014 4Q2014 3Q2015
kb/d Growth Leaders, y-o-y
China India US
The latest demand statistics – largely March and April releases – show approximately 0.2 mb/d higher
demand in both 1Q16 and 2Q16 than estimated in last month’s Report, but the changes were not
universally to the upside. Notably lower estimates emerged for Russia, Argentina, Iraq and Nigeria. Sharp
declines were also seen in Kuwait, Mexico and Norway. In context, the solid 1Q16 demand growth of
+1.6 mb/d is actually quite modest compared to mid-2015, when growth rallied to a five-year high of
+2.4 mb/d in reaction to sharply falling crude oil prices.
The show rolls on, into 2017
This month’s Report includes, for the first time, detailed
forecasts of 2017 oil demand. At an estimated 97.4 mb/d
in 2017, global oil demand is forecast to expand by
1.3 mb/d (or +1.3%). This assumes that global economic
growth is 3.5% in 2017, as published in the International
Monetary Fund’s (IMF) April World Economic Outlook,
which acts as the key determinant of 2017 global oil
demand growth.
Non-OECD economies dominate demand growth in 2017,

contributing 1.2 mb/d of the global 1.3 mb/d expansion. In the IMF’s April World Economic Outlook, emerging market and developing economies carry a sizeable 130% economic	0	2Q2017 Total
1Q2015	4Q2015	3Q2016
China	India

growth premium to advanced economies. Non-OECD economies generally sit at an earlier, more heavily
manufacturing-driven stage of their economic development path, requiring more oil per unit of GDP. OECD
demand growth further lags the non-OECD in IEA forecasts as more stringent vehicle efficiency assumptions
are built into our short-to-medium term models.
The risks to the demand forecast are evenly distributed. On the upside, the recent demand resilience
shown in the US and some European countries could continue for longer, and economic growth could
surprise to the upside – i.e. above the IMF’s 3.2% 2016 forecast, rising to 3.5% in 2017. On the flipside,
potentially higher crude oil prices over the remainder of the year could dampen momentum.
OECD
Oil demand increased in April by 0.7% y-o-y, the second consecutive month of growth, after March’s
1.8% gain. For 2016 as a whole, OECD deliveries are forecast to total 46.3 mb/d, up 145 kb/d y-o-y or
0.3%. Korea, the US and Turkey will post stronger gains, but 2H16 growth slowdowns are envisaged
under the influence of higher oil prices and a cloudy macroeconomic outlook. Elsewhere, there will be
demand falls in Japan, France, Canada and Italy, and weak conditions in Germany and Spain. In 2017,
total OECD oil deliveries are forecast to average 46.4 mb/d, very modestly up on 2016 (+65 kb/d), as
gains in the US marginally offset ongoing declines in Japan, Canada and a number of European countries.
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
kb/d Oil Demand Growth, y-o-y

DEMAND INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY – OIL MARKET REPORT
6 14 JUNE 2016
OECD Demand based on Adjusted Preliminary Submissions – April 2016
(million barrels per day)

mb/d 11.32 9.62 0.79 0.79 1.94 0.44 0.29 0.17 0.21 0.11	% pa 4.8 5.3 1.4 2.8 -2.5 0.7 -3.5 -5.3 -6.5 0.7 0.0 -1.7 2.0 1.7 3.3	mb/d 1.79 1.54 0.12 0.07 1.31	% pa 3.6 4.0 -3.2 9.7 0.9	mb/d 4.70 3.84	% pa mb/d % pa	mb/d 0.40 0.16	% pa 5.6 9.1	mb/d 5.51 4.22 0.72	% pa	mb/d	% pa 1.8 2.8 -2.1 -2.6 0.1 -1.7 1.8 -2.8 -4.3 2.0 -1.3 -5.0 3.2 1.5 0.7
OECD Americas* US50	-1.0 0.47 0.2 0.19	8.3 18.6 7.7	-2.84 24.19 -1.19 19.58
Canada	0.28 -15.1 0.21	0.04 -21.3	-0.90	2.17 1.88
Mexico	0.37 4.87 0.82 0.52 0.71 0.46 0.46 1.33 0.41 0.40 0.42	-1.2 0.05 -16.1	0.12 0.84 0.11 0.02 0.03	38.7 -1.7 -1.7 14.7 -7.1	0.48 -16.88
OECD Europe	2.3 1.39 7.1 0.34 2.8 0.13 -2.9 0.23 -2.9 0.09 2.3 0.15 0.9 0.50 -3.0 0.37 4.0 0.11	3.8 18.5 -7.5 0.1 1.3 2.5 3.0 1.5 11.0	3.37	-2.54 13.72
Germany	0.17 -11.7	0.45 -22.10	2.34 1.60 1.63 1.28 1.24 7.98 4.03 2.48 1.06
United Kingdom France	0.32 0.15 0.10 0.12 0.78 0.42 0.17 0.14 3.88	-0.2 0.3 1.9 4.1 -0.3 -4.7 4.4 5.6	0.31 0.34 0.36 0.26 3.22 1.66 1.30 0.17	12.09 -3.94 -4.83 3.04 -2.63 -4.73 -0.41 -1.34
Italy	0.07 -17.6
Spain	0.15 0.61	-1.8 -6.5
OECD Asia & Oceania 1.53
Japan	0.88 0.22 0.30 14.79	0.29 -23.2
Korea	0.28 0.03 1.85	18.2 7.5
Australia	0.9 0.00 -18.3
OECD Total	1.9 10.90	0.7 2.36	4.5	-1.9 12.10	-2.70 45.88

* Including US territories
Gasoline Jet/Kerosene Diesel Other Gasoil RFO Other Total Products
Americas
Weak growth in Canada, alongside recent declines in Mexico and Chile, contrast with the resilience seen
in the US oil demand data. Oil deliveries across the OECD Americas averaged 24.6 mb/d in March, up
435 kb/d on last year. Preliminary April numbers suggest a similarly sized y-o-y gain, to 24.2 mb/d,
underpinned by strong gains in US gasoline and a possible halt to the decline in US gasoil/diesel demand.
For 2016, deliveries in the OECD Americas average 24.5 mb/d, 150 kb/d up on 2015. In 2017, the pace
slows when deliveries average 24.6 mb/d, up 110 kb/d versus 2016.
22.5
23.0
23.5
24.0
24.5
25.0

25.5 mb/d

OECD Americas: Total Products Demand

JAN APR JUL OCT JAN

Range 11-15 2016

2015 5-year avg

-500
0
500
1,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
Jan-14Jun-14Nov-14Apr-15Sep-15Feb-16
kb/d US 50 Oil Demand

LPG	Naphtha	Gasoline
Jet/Kero Other	Gasoil Growth (RHS)	FO

In the US, growth petered out towards the end of 2015 but has now renewed vigour. In March, data
showed roughly 19.6 mb/d of oil product demand, 0.4 mb/d or 2.0% up on last year. Prior to February’s
0.3 mb/d y-o-y bounce, the previous five-month average was -0.1 mb/d y-o-y due to warm winters.
Preliminary indicators of April and May demand, based on the latest weekly statistics from the US Energy
Information Administration, show US oil product demand rising by a further 0.5 mb/d on average y-o-y.
The latest uptick in US demand growth is mainly attributable to strength in gasoline, partly offset by
lower rates of decline in industrial oil use. US industrial production fell by 1.1% y-o-y in April, according
to the US Federal Reserve, whereas the average decline through the previous five months was closer to
2%. The potential rebound for industrial fuels becomes more apparent with a closer examination of the
Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). Having plunged to
a multi-year low of 48.0 in December 2015, it rebounded to 51.3 in May. The index has been in optimistic
territory since March, tentatively implying rising industrial oil use through the latter stages of 2016.
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY – OIL MARKET REPORT DEMAND
14 JUNE 2016 7
-800
-400
0
400
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Jan14 Sep14 May15 Jan16
kb/d US 50 Gasoil Demand
Gasoil Growth (RHS)
47
50
53
56
59
Jun12 Apr13 Feb14 Dec14 Oct15
Note: 50=contraction/expansion threshold
US Institute of Supply Management
Manufacturing Index
US gasoline demand was 9.4mb/d in March and is forecast to rise to 9.6 mb/d in April-May, equivalent to
a robust 0.4 mb/d y-o-y growth rate. Lower 1H16 US pump prices are supportive of robust transport
demand growth. In evidence of this, the Department of Transport’s Federal Highway Administration
reported a 5.0% y-o-y gain in US vehicle miles travelled in March, after gains of 5.6% in February and
2.0% in January. As pump prices in the US will likely rise in the rest of 2016 and into 2017, growth
momentum for gasoline should ease back to +2.1% in 2H16. This follows an estimated gain of +3.6% in
1H16. Into 2017, growth will decelerate further as drivers potentially face higher prices. A relatively
modest +45 kb/d gain in US gasoline demand is forecast for 2017. For 2016, US oil demand growth of
approximately 1.1% is foreseen, as deliveries average 19.6 mb/d, decelerating to +0.6% in 2017, taking
average US demand up to 19.7 mb/d.
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
JAN APR JUL OCT JAN
mb/d US50: Motor Gasoline Demand

Range 11-15 2016

2015 5-year avg

1.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.3
JAN APR JUL OCT JAN
mb/d Mexico: Total Products Demand

Range 11-15 2016

2015 5-year avg

Reversing its previous four-month rising trend, Mexican oil demand fell in April, down by 50 kb/d
compared to the year earlier to an estimated 1.9 mb/d. Pulled down by a combination of falling LPG,
gasoil/diesel and naphtha demand, overall Mexican deliveries saw their sharpest decline for nearly a
year. Industrial oil use was affected by a fall in industrial production in March of 2%, according to the
Instituto Nacional de Estadistica y Geografia, the first such slide in ten months. In 2016 as a whole,
Mexican oil demand is forecast to average 2.0 mb/d, roughly flat on 2015, before modestly increasing in
2017 by 15 kb/d as underlying economic activity picks up. The IMF’s April World Economic Outlook cited
GDP growth of 2.6% for Mexico in 2017.
Europe
Despite ongoing economic gloom and higher temperatures, European oil product demand continues to
surprise to the upside. In 1Q16, OECD European demand averaged 13.6 mb/d, up by 180 kb/d on the
year earlier. Lower oil prices and some slightly more positive economic news particularly stimulated
industrial oil use. European residual fuel oil demand rose by 55 kb/d y-o-y in 1Q16, with sizeable gains
also seen in gasoil/diesel, LPG (includes ethane), naphtha and jet/kerosene demand.
DEMAND INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY – OIL MARKET REPORT
8 14 JUNE 2016
12.0
12.5
13.0
13.5
14.0
14.5

15.0 mb/d

OECD Europe: Total Products Demand

JAN APR JUL OCT JAN

Range 11-15 2016

2015 5-year avg

5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6

6.8 mb/d

OECD Europe: Gasoil/Diesel Demand

JAN APR JUL OCT JAN

Range 11-15 2016

2015 5-year avg

The recent European demand picture, however, is not uniformly positive, with declines seen in many
countries recently, e.g. Norway, the Czech Republic and Finland. Much reduced LPG demand in Norway
in March, alongside declines in gasoline, gasoil/diesel and residual fuel oil, pulled the overall 1Q16
Norwegian demand number down to a near one-and-a-half year low of 220 kb/d. As the Norwegian
economy struggles with a combination of persistently lower oil prices and sharply falling industrial
activity, average deliveries are forecast to flat-line at around 230 kb/d in 2016, before modestly
increasing (+0.6%) as the economic backdrop improves. Statistics Norway cited industrial activity across
the economy as a whole down by 4% in March, compared to the year earlier, its sixth consecutive
monthly y-o-y decline.
100
150
200
250
300
JAN APR JUL OCT JAN
kb/d Norway: Total Products Demand

Range 11-15 2016

2015 5-year avg

500
550
600
650
700
750
JAN APR JUL OCT JAN
kb/d Belgium: Total Products Demand

Range 11-15 2016

2015 5-year avg

Rising more rapidly than initially projected, Belgium’s oil product deliveries added roughly 80 kb/d in
March, compared to the year earlier, supported by sharp gains in gasoil/diesel (+35 kb/d y-o-y), residual
fuel oil (+25 kb/d) and ‘other products’ (+15 kb/d). Oil demand growth picked up as underlying industrial
activity solidified, with Statistics Belgium citing y-o-y industrial activity up by 8.1% in February and 1.7%
in March. Deliveries are forecast to average 670 kb/d in 2016, 10 kb/d up on 2015, with roughly flat
demand anticipated in 2017. Other European countries that posted surprisingly strong recent demand
data include Turkey, where deliveries rose by 70 kb/d on a y-o-y basis in 1Q16, the Netherlands
(+25 kb/d) and Poland (+25 kb/d). This rapid 1Q16 gain in Poland, with a similar sized jump seen in the
preliminary numbers for April, is underpinned by strong gains across the industrial fuels, fortified by
industrial activity across the Polish economy as a whole that surged 6.0% y-o-y higher in April, according
to data from the Central Statistical Office of Poland.
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY – OIL MARKET REPORT DEMAND
14 JUNE 2016 9
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
JAN APR JUL OCT JAN
mb/d Turkey: Total Products Demand

Range 11-15 2016

2015 5-year avg

800
850
900
950
1000
1050
1100
JAN APR JUL OCT JAN
kb/d Netherlands: Total Products Demand

Range 11-15 2016

2015 5-year avg

Asia Oceania
Down by 135 kb/d y-o-y in 1Q16, to 8.6 mb/d, OECD Asia Oceania bucked the trend of generally rising
OECD demand, pulled down by persistent sharp contractions in Japan. The most sizeable drops were in
the LPG, residual fuel oil and ‘other products’. The former due to milder temperatures reducing the
heating requirement – where kerosene is a major fuel – the latter as power sector demand ebbed. The
latest data for Japan showed demand falling by just under 5% in April after a decline of 3.9% in March
For 2016 as a whole, Japanese oil deliveries are forecast to average 4.1 mb/d, 110 kb/d down on 2015,
before easing by around 80 kb/d in 2017 to average 4.0 mb/d.
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
JAN APR JUL OCT JAN
mb/d Japan: Total Products Demand

Range 11-15 2016

2015 5-year avg

-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16
kb/d Korean Oil Demand Growth, y-o-y
Supported by persistently strong demand growth, in Korea April deliveries came in at an estimated
2.4 mb/d, 75 kb/d or 3.2% up on the year earlier. This marks the ninth consecutive month of plus 65 kb/d
y-o-y growth, supported by rapid gains in the petrochemical and industrial sectors. Gasoil/diesel
deliveries surged by 25 kb/d y-o-y and residual fuel oil, LPG and ‘other products’ also posted strong
gains. For the year as a whole, Korean oil deliveries are forecast to average 2.5 mb/d, 105 kb/d up on
2015; a relatively strong forecast attributable to the significantly lower oil-import bill and persistently
robust economic activity.
Non-OECD
The latest non-OECD demand data depicts stable oil product demand growth at +1.4 mb/d (or +2.9%) yo-y in both 4Q15 and 1Q16. Slower growth conditions are envisaged for the remainder of the year: early
indicators of 2Q16 Chinese demand show deceleration, and this is true also for many commoditydependent regions e.g. Middle East, Former Soviet Union and Latin America. On a sectoral-basis, the
greatest recent strength was reserved for the petrochemical and transport sectors: on a product-byproduct basis, LPG (includes ethane), naphtha and gasoline provided the majority of non-OECD demand
growth.
DEMAND INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY – OIL MARKET REPORT
10 14 JUNE 2016
Non-OECD: Demand by Product
(thousand barrels per day)
Annual Chg (kb/d) Annual Chg (%)
3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 4Q15 1Q16 4Q15 1Q16
LPG & Ethane 5,423 5,526 5,660 265 395 5.0 7.5
Naphtha 3,019 3,045 3,075 113 141 3.8 4.8
Motor Gasoline 10,581 10,735 10,641 495 372 4.8 3.6
Jet Fuel & Kerosene 3,151 3,115 3,108 86 11 2.8 0.4
Gas/Diesel Oil 14,421 14,690 14,068 290 274 2.0 2.0
Residual Fuel Oil 5,200 5,089 5,202 -242 -8 -4.5 -0.2
Other Products 7,228 6,983 6,803 389 192 5.9 2.9
Total Products 49,022 49,182 48,558 1,395 1,377 2.9 2.9
Demand
China
Restrained by persistent weakness across the Chinese industrial complex, oil product demand in China
averaged 11.5 mb/d in 1Q16, up by 0.2 mb/d compared to the year earlier. Big declines in gasoil/diesel
and residual fuel oil demand provided the greatest offset to otherwise robust Chinese petrochemical and
gasoline demand. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) cited Chinese industrial activity rising by 6.0%
on a y-o-y basis in April, after gains of 6.8% in March and 5.4% in January-February, while the Caixin
Manufacturing PMI has generally shown pessimistic readings since early 2015.
0%
3%
6%
9%
8 4 0
12
1Q2014 3Q2014 1Q2015 3Q2015 1Q2016
mb/d Chinese Oil Demand
LPG/naphtha Gasoline
Gasoil Others
Growth (RHS) %
47
48
49
50
51
52
Jan13 Aug13 Mar14 Oct14 May15 Dec15
Note: 50=contraction/expansion threshold. Sources: Caixin, Markit
Chinese Manufacturing PMI
China: Demand by Product
(thousand barrels per day)
Annual Chg (kb/d) Annual Chg (%)
2015 2016 2017 2016 2017 2016 2017
LPG & Ethane 1,120 1,248 1,301 128 53 11.4 4.3
Naphtha 997 1,053 1,079 56 26 5.7 2.5
Motor Gasoline 2,499 2,653 2,817 153 165 6.1 6.2
Jet Fuel & Kerosene 629 663 697 34 34 5.3 5.1
Gas/Diesel Oil 3,350 3,307 3,301 -44 -6 -1.3 -0.2
Residual Fuel Oil 280 181 158 -99 -23 -35.3 -12.8
Other Products 2,566 2,630 2,690 64 60 2.5 2.3
Total Products 11,442 11,735 12,043 293 308 2.6 2.6
Demand
Rising by approximately 70 kb/d in 1Q16, Chinese gasoline demand averaged 2.6 mb/d, supported by
strong vehicle sales. The Chinese Association of Automobile Manufacturers reported car sales growth of
6.5% y-o-y in April, with SUV sales up by one-third on the year earlier.
Preliminary April numbers show Chinese oil demand at 11.8 mb/d, 100 kb/d, or 1%, up on the year
earlier level. Growth is underpinned by strong gains in the petrochemical and road transport sectors,
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY – OIL MARKET REPORT DEMAND
14 JUNE 2016 11
offsetting persistent weakness in industrial fuel use. For the year as a whole, deliveries are forecast to
average 11.7 mb/d, 0.3 mb/d, or 2.6%, up on the year earlier. This rate of progress should be repeated in
2017 when deliveries will average 12.0 mb/d.
Other Non-OECD
The latest Indian demand figures remain exceptionally strong – March deliveries rose by around
0.5 mb/d y-o-y – but they have been modestly curtailed, since last month’s Report, on the release of a
more complete official data set. The latest numbers, from the Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas,
trimmed 30 kb/d from the earlier estimate of March deliveries, to 4.5 mb/d. Gasoil/diesel and ‘other
products’ account for the majority of the revision, albeit both products are still growing strongly, up
220 kb/d and 95 kb/d y-o-y respectively. A further gain of approximately 0.4 mb/d is anticipated for April,
according to preliminary data from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell. This will keep deliveries at
an estimated 4.5 mb/d. Strong gains in the transport and petrochemical sectors will underpin India’s
demand growth at 0.4 mb/d in 2016, likely to be the biggest global volume growth. In 2017, we
provisionally expect India’s rate of demand growth to moderate to +0.3 mb/d as the stimuli from lower
crude oil prices potentially wanes. In volume terms the projected deceleration, trims about 75 kb/d from
the likely level of demand.
0
200
400
600
0
2,500
5,000
Jan-15 Jun-15 Nov-15 Apr-16
kb/d India Oil Demand

LPG	Naphtha	Gasoline
Jet/Kero Other	Gasoil Growth (RHS)	FO

0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
JAN APR JUL OCT JAN
mb/d India: Motor Gasoline Demand

Range 11-15 2016

2015 5-year avg

Brazilian oil deliveries fell less than expected in April, down by 120 kb/d y-o-y (or 3.7%), to 3.1 mb/d.
Brazil has posted ten consecutive months of falling y-o-y demand spread across the major products. With
both the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatistica’s industrial activity index (-7.2% y-o-y in April) and
Markit’s Manufacturing PMI (41.6 in May) suggesting continued industrial weakness for some time to
come, our demand forecast shows sharp contractions. Projected to fall by 70 kb/d in 2016, Brazilian oil
demand will average 3.1 mb/d, and the outlook for 2017 remains precarious. In its World Economic
Outlook, published in April, the IMF sees flat GDP in 2017 after a decline of 3.8% in 2016.
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.4
3.6
JAN APR JUL OCT JAN
mb/d Brazil: Total Products Demand

Range 11-15 2016

2015 5-year avg

0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
JAN APR JUL OCT JAN
mb/d Brazil: Gasoil/Diesel Demand

Range 11-15 2016

2015 5-year avg

DEMAND INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY – OIL MARKET REPORT
12 14 JUNE 2016
Buoyed by robust industrial oil use, Egyptian oil demand rose by an estimated 55 kb/d y-o-y in March to
875 kb/d. Despite ongoing economic problems, tentative signs of a recovery, at least in oil demand, are
emerging. For example, economic growth accelerated to 4% on a quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) basis in
4Q15, one whole percentage point higher than 3Q15, as exports surged 25.6% benefiting from recent
reductions in the value of the Egyptian currency and imports fell by 3.7%. Egyptian oil demand in the
corresponding quarter surged 8.4% higher y-o-y, or +5.2% on a q-o-q basis. In 1Q16 growth eased (to
+2.6% y-o-y), strong March growth offsetting weak February data. Residual fuel oil and gasoil/diesel
contributed the most to growth in March. For the year as a whole, demand growth of 2.7% is foreseen,
lower than the projected GDP growth of 3.3% cited by the IMF in April’s World Economic Outlook. A
further acceleration in Egyptian oil demand growth is foreseen for 2017, to +2.9%, supported by a
further uptick in economic growth, to +4.3% according to the IMF.
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
JAN APR JUL OCT JAN
mb/d Egypt: Total Products Demand

Range 11-15 2016

2015 5-year avg

220
240
260
280
300
320
340
JAN APR JUL OCT JAN
kb/d Nigeria: Total Products Demand

Range 11-15 2016

2015 5-year avg

With the latest Nigerian demand numbers from the Joint Organisations Data Initiative (JODI) coming out
below prior expectations, against a swiftly weakening economic background, we have reduced our 1Q16
Nigerian demand estimate. At 260 kb/d in 1Q16, roughly 20 kb/d has been shaved off our forecast,
chiefly attributable to much reduced middle distillate demand. With Nigeria’s GDP falling by an
estimated 0.4% in 1Q16, the risk of recession builds by the day, as the unemployment rate surges to a
six-year high. The Minister of Information, Alhaji Lai Mohammed, recently admitted, “Nigeria is broke,
pure and simple”. A combination of the precarious macroeconomic backdrop and higher petrol prices
means that next to no oil demand growth will be possible in Nigeria this year.
-300
-150
0
150
300
450
Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16
kb/d Russia Demand Growth, y-o-y
Gasoline/Jet/Kerosene Gasoil

FO/other total

LPG/naphtha

0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
JAN APR JUL OCT JAN
mb/d Russia: Gasoil/Diesel Demand

Range 11-15 2016

2015 5-year avg

The recent demand strength shown in Russia eased back considerably in April, as slower gains in
gasoil/diesel and residual fuel oil, coupled with absolute y-o-y declines in gasoline and jet/kerosene,
pulled overall growth back to a four-month low of +50 kb/d (or 1.4%). Having risen by 275 kb/d y-o-y (or
+8.2%) as recently as 1Q16, April’s 50 kb/d gain is a notable deceleration but does not significantly
change the forecast for the year as a whole (+1.6% in 2016 to 3.7 mb/d). Demand growth of just below
1% is foreseen in 2017, supported by marginally higher economic activity. Much stronger Russian oil
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY – OIL MARKET REPORT DEMAND
14 JUNE 2016 13
demand growth is not looking likely through the remainder of the decade, as forecasters such as the IMF,
in their World Economic Outlook dated April 2016, do not see GDP growth rising significantly above 1.5%
anytime soon.
Non-OECD: Demand by Region
(thousand barrels per day)

3Q15 4,027	4Q15 4,193	1Q16 4,235	4Q15 210	1Q16 112	4Q15 5.3	1Q16 2.7	Africa
Asia	23,786	24,390	24,503	1,077	956	4.6	4.1
FSU	5,053	4,977	4,857	-73	280	-1.4	6.1
Latin America	6,853	6,789	6,501	-125	-121	-1.8	-1.8
Middle East	8,595	8,121	7,759	277	124	3.5	1.6
Non-OECD Europe	709	711	703	28	27	4.2	3.9
Total Products	49,022	49,182	48,558	1,395	1,377	2.9	2.9

Demand Annual Chg (kb/d) Annual Chg (%)
Falling by 15.9% in March – a near two-and-a-half year low in y-o-y terms – Kuwaiti oil deliveries slipped
to their lowest level since 2009. A combination of weak industrial demand, depressed oil prices and
economic reform acted to curb oil demand to an average 370 kb/d in March. The sharpest declines were
seen in the industrial fuels – gasoil/diesel and residual fuel oil – and gasoline. Only LPG, of the major
product categories, resisted y-o-y declines. For the year as a whole, deliveries are forecast to average
455 kb/d, roughly flat on 2015, restrained by the recent weakening of demand trend and projections of
relatively weak economic activity across the year as a whole. Momentum should then modestly pickup in
2017 (+1.4%), as underlying economic activity also picks up (+2.6% in the IMF’s World Economic
Outlook).
-80
-40
0
40
80
1Q2014 3Q2014 1Q2015 3Q2015
kb/d Kuwait Oil Demand Growth, y-o-y
Gasoline/Jet/Kerosene Gasoil

FO/other Total

LPG/naphtha

0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
JAN APR JUL OCT JAN
mb/d Iraq: Total Products Demand

Range 11-15 2016

2015 5-year avg

Restrained by weak industrial oil use, the latest Iraqi demand numbers show only a modest 10 kb/d y-o-y
gain to 735 kb/d in 1Q16. Ongoing fighting, coupled with relatively low crude oil prices, continue to
hamper the economy. Given the latest demand data, a roughly flat trajectory is foreseen in 2016-17 with
Iraqi oil deliveries forecast to average 0.8 mb/d in the period 2015-17.
SUPPLY INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY – OIL MARKET REPORT
14 14 JUNE 2016
SUPPLY
Summary
• Supply disruptions cut global oil production by nearly 0.8 mb/d in May, with declines in both OPEC
and non-OPEC countries. At 95.4 mb/d, output stood 590 kb/d below a year earlier – the first
significant decline since the start of 2013 – as spending cuts and outages sank non-OPEC output by
1.3 mb/d compared with one year earlier.
• After declining by 0.9 mb/d in 2016, non-OPEC supply growth is expected to return in 2017, albeit at
a modest 0.2 mb/d, lifting output from 56.8 mb/d in 2016 to 57 mb/d in 2017. Gains will be almost
entirely accounted for by Canada and Brazil, where growth was stymied by unscheduled outages in
2016. Declines in mature regions continue following hefty spending cuts in 2015 and 2016. Small
production increases are also expected from Ghana and the Republic of the Congo.
• US lower 48 onshore crude oil production continues to decline, with the latest official estimates
showing a 75 kb/d m-o-m drop in March to 7 mb/d, or 750 kb/d less than a year earlier. Robust Gulf
of Mexico (GoM) and natural gas liquids output supports total US oil output, however, posting gains of
230 kb/d and 330 kb/d, respectively. Tight oil production is expected to slip by 500 kb/d this year and a
further 190 kb/d in 2017, despite an expected return to growth by mid-2017.
• Non-OPEC oil supplies are estimated to have plunged by more than 650 kb/d in May, as a devastating
wildfire in Alberta slashed Canadian oil sands production. At 55.9 mb/d, total non-OPEC supplies were
nearly 1.3 mb/d below the year earlier, with declines stemming primarily from the US, Canada, China,
Colombia, Italy and Ghana.
• OPEC crude output fell by 110 kb/d in May to 32.61 mb/d as big losses in Nigeria due to oil sector
sabotage more than offset higher output from the Middle East. Output in May stood 500 kb/d above
a year ago. At their meeting on 2 June, OPEC ministers chose not to re-instate a production ceiling
leaving members free to pump at will.
• Iran has clearly emerged as OPEC’s fastest source of supply growth this year, with an anticipated
annual gain of nearly 700 kb/d. Crude output in May climbed by 80 kb/d to 3.64 mb/d – the highest
since June 2011. Production this year is projected to average slightly below 3.6 mb/d and in 2017 it
could run just above 3.7 mb/d. The only other substantial increase from OPEC in 2017 could be from
Nigeria, should security issues in the Niger Delta be resolved.
28
29
30
31
32
33
40
45
50
55
60
65
Jan 14 Aug 14 Mar 15 Oct 15 May 16
mb/d mb/d
OPEC and Non-OPEC Oil Supply
Non-OPEC OPEC NGLs
OPEC Crude – RS
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
Jan 14 Aug 14 Mar 15 Oct 15 May 16
mb/d
OPEC and Non-OPEC Oil Supply
Year-on-Year Change

OPEC Crude	Non-OPEC
OPEC NGLs	Total Supply

All world oil supply data for May discussed in this report are IEA estimates. Estimates for OPEC countries,
Alaska, Mexico and Russia are supported by preliminary May supply data.
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY – OIL MARKET REPORT SUPPLY
14 JUNE 2016 15
OPEC crude oil supply
OPEC crude output dropped by 110 kb/d in May to 32.61 mb/d as deepening outages in Nigeria
outweighed significantly higher production from Kuwait, Iran and the UAE. Force majeure on four key
export grades cut Nigerian supply by 250 kb/d to 1.37 mb/d – the lowest in nearly three decades (see
Nigeria’s plunge). Power cuts in southern Iraq reduced flows by 90 kb/d, while a marketing dispute in
Libya clipped production by 80 kb/d. Kuwait posted the biggest increase, with supplies rebounding by
120 kb/d following a short-lived workers’ strike in mid-April. Output from Iran, OPEC’s biggest source of
2016 growth, rose by 80 kb/d to reach 3.64 mb/d – a level last pumped in June 2011 before the imposition
of more rigorous sanctions. Iranian crude oil exports in May rose by more than 130 kb/d to 2.1 mb/d – just
a touch below pre-sanctions rates. Supply from the UAE climbed by 70 kb/d after oil fields returned from
scheduled maintenance. Saudi production edged up to 10.25 mb/d.
30.0
30.5
31.0
31.5
32.0
32.5
33.0
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan
mb/d OPEC Crude Supply
2013 2014 2015 2016
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 15 Jul 15 Jan 16
mb/d OPEC Growth y-o-y
Other OPEC Iraq Saudi Arabia
Iran OPEC
While crippling militant attacks have cut Nigerian flows by roughly 500 kb/d since the start of the year,
Iranian oil fields released from sanctions have ramped up by 730 kb/d. As a group, OPEC’s 13 members
during May pumped 500 kb/d above the previous year. OPEC’s “effective” spare capacity was 2.24 mb/d,
with Saudi Arabia accounting for 87% of the cushion. Production from OPEC during June could climb
towards, and possibly exceed, the 33 mb/d mark were Iraqi and Libyan supplies to increase and if Saudi
output rises to cover the requirements of peak summer demand.
Mar 2016 Apr 2016 May 2016 1Q16 Crude
Supply Supply Supply Supply
Algeria 1.11 1.09 1.09 1.12 0.03 1.10
Angola 1.80 1.75 1.75 1.81 0.06 1.77
Ecuador 0.55 0.53 0.54 0.55 0.01 0.54
Indonesia 0.73 0.73 0.74 0.74 0.00 0.71
Iran 3.26 3.56 3.64 3.65 0.01 3.15
Iraq 4.19 4.36 4.27 4.40 0.13 4.28
Kuwait2 2.83 2.73 2.85 2.87 0.02 2.83
Libya 0.34 0.35 0.27 0.40 0.13 0.36
Nigeria 1.68 1.62 1.37 1.85 0.48 1.76
Qatar 0.67 0.66 0.66 0.67 0.01 0.66
Saudi Arabia2 10.19 10.21 10.25 12.20 1.95 10.21
UAE 2.73 2.82 2.89 2.93 0.04 2.81
Venezuela3 2.35 2.31 2.29 2.40 0.11 2.36
Total OPEC 32.43 32.72 32.61 35.59 2.98 32.56
(excluding Iraq, Nigeria, Libya) 2.24
1 Capacity levels can be reached within 90 days and sustained for an extended period.
2 Includes half of Neutral Zone production.
3 Includes upgraded Orinoco extra-heavy oil assumed at 440 kb/d in May.
Sustainable
Production
Capacity1
Spare Capacity vs
May 2016 Supply
OPEC Crude Production
(million barrels per day)
SUPPLY INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY – OIL MARKET REPORT
16 14 JUNE 2016
OPEC oil ministers met on 2 June and chose not to re-instate an output ceiling, leaving members free to
produce at will. When they meet again in November, it will mark an entire year with no official supply
target. Since the end of 2014, OPEC members have essentially left the market to rebalance itself. The
meeting was also noteworthy for the unanimous election of Mohammed Barkindo, former head of the
Nigerian National Petroleum Corp., as OPEC secretary-general. Ministers also re-admitted Gabon to the
group from 1 July. Saudi Arabia’s new energy minister, Khalid al-Falih assuaged concerns over a shift in
Saudi policy: “We will be very gentle in our approach and make sure we don’t shock the market in any
way,” he said. “There is no reason to expect that Saudi Arabia is going to go on a flooding campaign.”
Crude oil output in Saudi Arabia edged up 40 kb/d to 10.25 mb/d during May to meet slightly higher
domestic demand. Sales of crude oil to world markets in May held relatively steady, according to
preliminary tanker tracking data. Data from the Joint Organisations Data Initiative (JODI) show Saudi
Aramco shipped an average 7.64 mb/d of crude during 1Q16, up 70 kb/d on the same period a year ago. A
substantial boost in product shipments pushed up exports of total liquids, excluding condensates and
NGLs, to an average 9.05 mb/d in 1Q16 – a rise of 660 kb/d on the first three months of 2015.
Saudi Aramco plans to raise oil output from the recently expanded Shaybah oil field and is offering
additional Arab Extra Light barrels to customers in Asia. Additions at Shaybah, where a 250 kb/d project
has lifted capacity to 1 mb/d, as well as at Khurais will hold overall production capacity comfortably above
12 mb/d. The 300 kb/d project at the Arab-Light producing Khurais oil field, due to boost capacity to
1.5 mb/d, is expected to be finished in 2018.
9.0
9.2
9.4
9.6
9.8
10.0
10.2
10.4
10.6
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan
mb/d Saudi Arabia Crude Supply
2013 2014 2015 2016
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
mb/d Saudi Liquids Exports
Products Crude
Product share (RHS) Source: JODI
Crude oil production in June could meanwhile rise in order to cover increased requirements for power
generation during the sweltering summer months. From June through August 2015, Saudi power plants
burned more than 800 kb/d of crude oil – twice the amount used during the rest of the year. This summer,
however, power plants could consume at least 100 kb/d less crude once the 2.5 billion cubic feet per day
Wasit gas plant starts to ramp up.
Kuwait turned in the largest production increase during May, with crude supplies rebounding by 120 kb/d
to 2.85 mb/d following a short-lived strike by oil workers the previous month. In the UAE, following the
completion of maintenance work at the Murban complex, production increased 70 kb/d to 2.89 mb/d.
Qatari output held steady at 660 kb/d. Six international oil companies – BP, Royal Dutch Shell, Maersk,
Total, Chevron and Conoco Phillips – have reportedly bid to operate Qatar’s largest offshore oil field, the
300 kb/d al-Shaheen field. Maersk currently runs the field under a 25-year production sharing contract
that expires in mid-2017. The new contract is expected to be awarded during 2H16.
Oil fields in Iran churned out 3.64 mb/d during May – 80 kb/d higher than in April and up 730 kb/d since
the start of the year when international sanctions were eased. In line with our Medium Term Oil Market
Report (MTOMR) forecast, Iran is on track to post an annual gain of roughly 700 kb/d in 2016, with output
averaging just below 3.6 mb/d. Average crude supply in 2017 is expected to rise above 3.7 mb/d.
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY – OIL MARKET REPORT SUPPLY
14 JUNE 2016 17
Iran is making every effort to reclaim lost market share. Exports of crude oil in April were just under
2 mb/d, nearly double the volume at the start of the year. Crude oil sales rose to 2.1 mb/d in May, nearly
touching pre-sanctions levels. Provisional loading schedules for June indicate that recent levels are being
maintained with crude shipments of more than 2 mb/d.
Before sanctions were tightened in mid-2012, Iran’s crude oil exports totalled about 2.2 mb/d, with
Europe accounting for around 600 kb/d. Just four months after sanctions were eased, the National Iranian
Oil Co (NIOC) is making progress towards regaining its European market share. Liftings of some 445 kb/d
in May were slightly below April due to reduced purchases from France, which was in the midst of a
refining strike. Regular lifters include Total, Tupras, Cepsa, Lukoil, Iplom and Motor Oil Hellas. Shell, which
had been one of NIOC’s main customers before the EU banned Iranian crude imports in mid-2012, is also
set to resume oil purchases and is due to load its first cargo in July. Shell paid off 1.77 billion euros ($2
billion) it owed to NIOC for previous supplies in March.
China’s purchases from Iran slowed in May to around 640 kb/d, after record liftings of nearly 900 kb/d the
month before. Japan loaded roughly 250 kb/d in May, up from about 175 kb/d the previous month.
Shipments to India eased by around 25 kb/d to 330 kb/d, while exports to South Korea quadrupled to 255
kb/d. Shipments of condensates slowed to 120 kb/d from 250 kb/d in April. Iran is storing 44 million
barrels of ultra-light oil from Iran’s South Pars gas project at sea.
2.50
2.75
3.00
3.25
3.50
3.75
4.00
4.25
mb/d Iran Crude Supply
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Jan 13 Oct 13 Jul 14 Apr 15 Jan 16
mb/d Iran crude oil loadings
China India Korea Japan Europe Other
Source: Lloyd’s List Intelligence
Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh says that production has already risen to 3.8 mb/d. To boost capacity
towards an official target of 4.8 mb/d by 2021, the government is seeking to lure at least $70 billion worth
of investment under its new Iran Petroleum Contract (IPC). As reported in the MTOMR, our high-case
assessment is that Iranian capacity could reach 4.1 mb/d by 2021 assuming that there is no re-imposition
of sanctions and a significant influx of foreign cash and technology.
Iraqi crude oil production, including the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), dropped to 4.27 mb/d
during May, down 90 kb/d m-o-m, after power outages at pumping stations restricted southern exports
that ran close to record highs in April. Overall exports, including from the KRG, fell to 3.71 mb/d in May –
with the south accounting for the entire 160 kb/d drop on the previous month.
A recovery in international oil prices meant that lower exports of southern Basra crude (3.2 mb/d vs
3.36 mb/d) earned $3.745 billion – $400 million more than in April. Oil exports from the Kurdistan region
through Turkey held steady at around 510 kb/d. Shipments were running at around 600 kb/d at the start
of the year, but dropped after Baghdad’s North Oil Co (NOC) reclaimed part of the giant Kirkuk oil field.
Revenue from the KRG’s exports from Ceyhan totalled $390 million in May compared to $376 million the
previous month.
SUPPLY INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY – OIL MARKET REPORT
18 14 JUNE 2016
Iraq is working to sustain record output rates to keep
revenues as high as possible. The battle against the
Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) is very costly
and the government has struggled to keep up payments
to the international oil companies at work in the prized
oil fields of the south. Late payments could lead to a
drop in output in 2017 because contractors are cutting
investment and slowing down drilling programmes.
Iraq’s State Oil Marketing Organisation (SOMO) has

reportedly increased its June loading schedule by 6 0.0 Jan-14	Aug-14	Mar-15	Oct-15	May-16
million barrels. After posting the biggest output gain in OPEC in 2015 (660 kb/d), Iraq’s production profile is likely to stay flat at around 4.3 mb/d this year and next.	Basra exports	Northern exports
IEA Est Production

Supply from Angola and Algeria held steady in May at 1.75 mb/d and 1.09 mb/d respectively. Angolan
President Jose Eduardo dos Santos has appointed his daughter Isabel as head of Sonangol as part of a
restructuring. Sonangol is struggling with low oil prices and reduced revenue which have caused its debt
to foreign oil companies pile up. Output crept up 10 kb/d in Ecuador and Indonesia to 540 kb/d and 740
kb/d, respectively. Production in Indonesia has risen steadily since the start of the year with flows at the
ExxonMobil operated Banyu Urip oil field now close to full capacity of 185 kb/d.
Libyan output fell by 80 kb/d to 270 kb/d in May after a marketing tussle between rival governments in
the west and east prevented loadings at the eastern Marsa al-Hariga port for three weeks. Exports
restarted on 19 May after the two National Oil Corporations reached an initial deal to unite. Production
had risen above 300 kb/d by the end of May and Libyan officials say supplies could rise towards 700 kb/d
by the end of the year, provided the eastern ports of Ras Lanuf and Es Sider are re-opened. Earlier this
year militants attacked the strategic terminals – closed since December 2014 – that can handle nearly
600 kb/d of exports between them. A near-term production increase would be likely to come from the
core, southwestern oil fields of Es Sharara and Elephant, that are now shut in. While 700 kb/d would be
more than double what Libya is pumping now, it is a small fraction of the 1.6 mb/d produced prior to the
fall of the Gaddafi regime in 2011.
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
mb/d Libya Crude Supply
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
mb/d Venezuela Crude Supply
Operational issues and loading difficulties further slowed Venezuelan output in May, with supplies dipping
20 kb/d m-o-m to 2.29 mb/d – the lowest since November 2009. Venezuela’s acute economic crisis is
making it difficult for Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) to pay international companies and sustain output,
which in May was running 150 kb/d below a year ago. An annual decline of at least 100 kb/d in 2016 is all
but inevitable as foreign oil service companies exit the country. International oil companies involved in the
country say daily operational challenges are mounting at oil fields and export terminals. Payment issues
and malfunctioning loading arms at Jose, Venezuela’s main crude port, backed up exports during May and
could have curtailed production.
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
mb/d Iraq Production and Exports

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY – OIL MARKET REPORT SUPPLY
14 JUNE 2016 19
Nigerian plunge
Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari’s first year in office has been marked with an oil production collapse
and an economy tilting towards recession due to a prolonged period of lower oil prices. Crippling militant
attacks have cut crude output by roughly 500 kb/d since the start of the year and the Niger Delta Avengers
(NDA) have vowed to sink production to “zero”. Supply during May fell 250 kb/d m-o-m to 1.37 mb/d, the
lowest level since July 1988, with four key export streams under force majeure. The disruptions and slower
output have – for three months running – allowed Angola to overtake Nigeria as Africa’s biggest producer.
Foreign companies involved in Nigeria say the steppedup militant attacks – targeting oil wells and pipelines –
are growing more sophisticated. President Buhari has
vowed to crack down on pipeline saboteurs in the Delta
region, which pumps most of the country’s oil. Militant
strikes have disrupted three of the country’s key export
streams – Bonny Light, Forcados and Brass River – while
a fourth, Qua Iboe, was out during much of May due to
technical issues. ExxonMobil, which operates Qua Iboe –

Nigeria’s largest export stream – lifted the force majeure in early June. Foreign operators such as Chevron and Shell were forced to remove staff. Shell is reportedly repairing the sub-sea pipeline to its Forcados terminal,

1.2 1.4

which was damaged by an attack in February. Prior to
the outage, Forcados shipments were running at around 250 kb/d.
The Nigerian government has established a team to engage with the NDA, but the rebel group rejected the
offer, saying they want a larger cut of oil revenues. The government has also announced plans to reduce the
heavy military presence in the restive Delta and President Buhari has attempted to pacify the rebels by
extending an amnesty signed with militants in 2009.
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
mb/d Nigeria Crude Supply
SUPPLY INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY – OIL MARKET REPORT
20 14 JUNE 2016
The non-OPEC supply overview this month focuses on the roll out of our forecast through 2017. Several of
the themes underpinning this analysis are based on the IEA’s Medium Term Oil Market Report 2016,
(MTOMR) published in February. Readers should consult the MTOMR for more detailed discussion of
factors affecting supply in 2017 and beyond.
Non-OPEC overview
Non-OPEC oil supply is estimated at 55.9 mb/d in May, a hefty 650 kb/d below April and 1.25 mb/d below
a year earlier. The bulk of the decline came from Canada, where, at their peak, the devastating wildfires in
Alberta saw 1.5 mb/d of production capacity taken offline. The Canadian disruption, along with
production problems in Brazil and elsewhere, have caused us to trim our forecast of non-OPEC supply in
2016 by 0.1 mb/d since last month’s Report. We now expect non-OPEC output to average 56.8 mb/d this
year, a drop of 0.9 mb/d compared to 2015.
54
55
56
57
58
59
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan
mb/d Non-OPEC Total Oil Supply
2014 2015
2016 2016 forecast
2017 forecast
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
1Q13 1Q14 1Q15 1Q16 1Q17
mb/d
Other North America Total
Total Non-OPEC Supply, y-o-y Change
Non-OPEC supply growth is expected to resume in 2017 albeit only by a modest 240 kb/d. At 57 mb/d,
forecast output next year is unchanged from our estimate presented in the MTOMR. Canada and Brazil
will account for nearly all growth next year, with smaller gains expected from the Republic of Congo,
Ghana and in global biofuels production.
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
kb/d Non-OPEC Supply Changes 2016-2017
2016 2017
While US LTO output is forecast to only marginally pick up by mid-2017, and decline by 190 kb/d for the
year as a whole, increased NGLs and Gulf of Mexico production will leave total US supplies unchanged at
around 12.5 mb/d. Russian oil production is expected to hold relatively steady, as companies have
increased spending and drilling activity to stem decline at mature fields and new projects are
commissioned.
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY – OIL MARKET REPORT SUPPLY
14 JUNE 2016 21
After posting solid production gains in 2015 and early 2016, the North Sea is expected to see renewed
declines next year, despite the start-up of several new projects. The biggest drops in output, however, are
forecast for Mexico, China and Colombia, extending steep
losses seen in 2016. Over the first four months of 2016,
total oil production in these three countries slipped by a
combined 320 kb/d from a year earlier, with further
declines expected.
In terms of different supply sources, liquids growth next
year will be made up of NGLs, biofuels and Canadian
synthetic crude production (classified as non-conventional
supply in our databases), as output from Alberta’s
upgraders rebounds from fire-affected levels. Conventional
crude production, including LTO, will see continued
declines.
(million barrels per day)
2015 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 2016 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 2017

Americas Europe Asia Oceania Total OECD Former USSR Europe China Other Asia Latin America Middle East Africa Total Non-OECD Processing Gains Global Biofuels Total Non-OPEC

19.9 3.5 0.5 23.9 14.0 0.1 4.3 2.7 4.6 1.3 2.2 29.3 2.2 2.3 57.6

19.9 3.6 0.4 23.9 14.2 0.1 4.2 2.8 4.4 1.3 2.2 29.1 2.3 1.9 57.2

18.9 3.4 0.4 22.7 14.0 0.1 4.1 2.7 4.4 1.2 2.1 28.7 2.3 2.5 56.2

19.3 3.2 0.4 22.9 13.9 0.1 4.1 2.7 4.6 1.2 2.2 28.8 2.3 2.7 56.7

19.5 3.4 0.4 23.3 14.0 0.1 4.1 2.7 4.6 1.2 2.2 29.0 2.3 2.4 56.9

19.4 3.4 0.4 23.2 14.0 0.1 4.1 2.7 4.5 1.2 2.2 28.9 2.3 2.4 56.8

19.6 3.4 0.4 23.4 14.0 0.1 4.0 2.7 4.6 1.2 2.3 29.0 2.3 2.0 56.6

19.4 3.3 0.4 23.1 14.0 0.1 4.0 2.7 4.7 1.2 2.3 29.0 2.3 2.5 56.9

19.5 3.2 0.4 23.1 13.9 0.1 4.0 2.7 4.7 1.2 2.3 28.9 2.3 2.9 57.2

19.6 3.4 0.5 23.4 14.1 0.1 4.0 2.7 4.7 1.2 2.3 29.1 2.3 2.5 57.2

19.5 3.3 0.4 23.3 14.0 0.1 4.0 2.7 4.7 1.2 2.3 29.0 2.3 2.5 57.0

Annual Chg (mb/d) 1.4 2.1 0.4 0.2 -0.8 -0.9 -0.5 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2
Changes from last OMR (mb/d) -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1
Non-OPEC Supply
OECD
North America
US –May Alaska actual, others estimated: Total US oil supplies posted a surprise increase in March, the
latest data for which complete official statistics are available. Coming in at nearly 12.9 mb/d, production
was 155 kb/d higher than the February average. The monthly increase, stemming entirely from higher
natural gas liquids (NGL) production and increased output from the Gulf of Mexico (GoM), masks steep
declines in onshore crude production. NGL production reached a new all-time high above 3.5 mb/d in
March, nearly 330 kb/d higher than a year ago. Output in the GoM increased 65 kb/d from a month earlier
to 1.64 mb/d, or 225 kb/d above one year earlier.
Other supplies, meanwhile, continue to decline. The latest official estimates show US lower 48 onshore oil
production, dominated by light tight oil developments, slipping by 75 kb/d m-o-m in March, to just shy of
7 mb/d, or 750 kb/d less than a year earlier. Oil production from Texas accounted for more than half the
decline, slipping 40 kb/d, to 3.3 mb/d – down 370 kb/d y-o-y. Output in North Dakota and Oklahoma is
also on a clear downward trend, falling 80 kb/d and 66 kb/d compared with a year earlier, respectively.
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2010 2012 2014 2016
mb/d Non-OPEC Growth by Liquid Type
Crude NGLs
Non-Conv Biofuels
Other Non-Conv
SUPPLY INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY – OIL MARKET REPORT
22 14 JUNE 2016
US oil production to turn corner in 2017
Taking a first detailed look at 2017 supply and demand balances, a major uncertainty is the fate of US light
tight oil production (LTO). While the pace of decline and the timing and speed of the recovery remains
uncertain, this Report maintains its view that output will start to recover by mid-2017. The rebound will,
however, only truly pick up speed beyond the 2017 forecast horizon of this Report.
10.5
11.0
11.5
12.0
12.5
13.0
13.5
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan
mb/d United States Total Oil Supply
2014 2015
2016 2016 forecast
2017 forecast
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
1Q13 1Q14 1Q15 1Q16 1Q17
mb/d US Total Oil Supply – Yearly Change

Alaska	California
Gulf of Mexico NGLs
Other	Total

Texas
North Dakota
According to our estimates, US LTO production dropped another 60 kb/d in March, to 3.94 mb/d, or 500 kb/d
below a year earlier. Following the plunge in the number of active US oil rigs since the end of 2014, the
number of new well completions dropped to around 400 in March, from nearly 1 200 a year earlier according
to Rystad data. For the year as a whole, we forecast a total of 5 000 wells to be completed in the primary tight
oil plays, down from more than 14 000 at the peak in 2014 and 10 000 last year.
Following the recovery in oil prices to $50/bbl currently, and a tighter market balance next year, we expect a
slight uptick in completion activity through 2016 and into 2017. Indeed, while US producers removed another
16 rigs from active service in May, signs that the steep falls have ended might be emerging. In the week
ending 3 June, nine rigs were brought back into service, five of which were added in the prolific Permian
Basin. Furthermore, the backlog of drilled but uncompleted wells (DUCs) will also likely continue to shrink,
which could spur production growth ahead of an increase in drilling activity.
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16
mb/d US Tight Oil Projections

Bakken	Eagle Ford
Midland	Niobrara

Delaware
Others
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16
b/d Production per Rig

Bakken	Eagle Ford
Niobrara	Utica
Permian Region

Source: EIA Drilling Productivity Report
The Permian Midland has seen a remarkable productivity improvement. IEA analysis of Rystad well data
shows that average initial production (IP) from new wells increased by more than 50% in 2015, to nearly
550 b/d, underpinning LTO’s impressive resilience last year. Wells in Permian Delaware saw more modest
increases in IP rates to around 400 kb/d in peak month production. We expect modest, if any, additional
productivity gains in 2017 without further technological breakthroughs. Average well productivity in the
Bakken and Eagle Ford plays, for instance, seem to have already stalled, posting similar levels in 2014 and
2015. Output per rigs, published in EIA’s Drilling Productivity Report, suggest companies continue to drill more
wells per rig.
As discussed in the last Report, the increase in activity is expected to be restricted by a number of factors,
most notably the dire financial situation of most US independent players. Access to capital and the need to
repair balance sheets will cap any upside in the near term. The speed at which the industry can re-staff and
prepare equipment for the return to service will likely be at least six months and most probably even longer.
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY – OIL MARKET REPORT SUPPLY
14 JUNE 2016 23
US oil production to turn corner in 2017 (continued)
As a result we are forecasting only a modest uptick in completion rates from the second half of 2017, to less
than 5 300 wells on average for the year. Such a modest increase is not enough to offset declines at already
producing wells, however, and LTO output will see further declines next year, of around 200 kb/d, following a
decline of 500 kb/d in 2016.
Annual average US LTO production estimates (kb/d)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Bakken 252 388 644 838 1080 1208 1025 929
Eagle Ford 41 230 579 966 1348 1468 1217 1129
W. Texas 69 108 183 328 596 897 907 951
Niobrara 4 19 59 119 219 305 297 288
Other LTO 53 112 205 295 406 436 365 323
US LTO (kb/d) 419 857 1670 2546 3648 4314 3811 3619
Annual Change 439 812 876 1102 666 -503 -192
Continued growth in NGL and GoM output is expected to provide an offset next year, however, leaving total
US oil supplies unchanged from the 2016 average of 12.5 mb/d. After adding 140 kb/d to supplies in 2015, US
GoM output is on track to expand by an average of 80 kb/d and 90 kb/d over 2016 and 2017, respectively.
Growth will come from projects such as Anadarko’s 80 kb/d Heidelberg, which started up in January this year,
as well as Shell’s Stones, Exxon’s Julia and Walter Oil & Gas’ Coalecanth projects – all scheduled to start up
before the end of 2016. Thunder Horse and Jack/St Malo expansions will also add to supplies.
Despite a market slowdown in marketed natural gas production growth from 5.2% in 2015 to -0.8% in 2016
and 0.9% in 2017 (see the IEA’s Medium Term Gas Market Report 2016, (MTGMR) released on 8 June 2016).
NGL output, which grew by 9% in 2015, is expected to expand by 5% in 2016 and 7% in 2017 – or volumetric
growth of 160 kb/d and 240 kb/d, respectively. The bulk of the increase will come from higher ethane
production as new petrochemical and export capacity provides new outlets for supply, allowing more ethane
to be recovered from raw natural gas.
The MTGMR discussed the NGL impact on shale gas economics in the US and estimated the volumes of
ethane rejection. In 2010, an average US NGL barrel yielded 42% ethane, versus only 34% in 2015. Assuming
no change in the composition of the rich gas mix at the wellhead since 2010, ethane rejection in 2015
amounted to 400 kb/d, about 3% of the US total oil output. This was due to negative frac spreads, an indicator
showing the margin from the extraction and realisation of natural gas liquids vs the market price of natural
gas. The frac spread turned negative at the end of 2012, which means it makes more commercial sense to sell
the rich gas stream at the natural gas prices than to fractionate and sell the NGL products.
The negative frac spread is almost entirely an ethane story. Ethane has just one mainstream demand sector:
the petrochemical industry. In the United States, petrochemical crackers have tried to accommodate growing
ethane supplies by switching to ethane from other
feedstocks or increasing utilisation rates, yet some

170 kb/d of demand growth from 2010 to 2015 was not enough to absorb all incremental volumes. Indeed the downtrend in ethane yields has followed the trend in	26% 28% 30% 32% 34% 36% 38% 40% 42%	-1
ethane margins. This year though, the ethane margins have improved and this has already had an impact on ethane yields, which in the first quarter were up by 1.3% point to 35.3%, though still far below the 42% of 2010.

This contributed an additional 50 kb/d to US total

output. If the frac spreads, and especially ethane margins continue strengthening, there is a possibility of higher ethane extraction, buffering US total oil output. US started exporting ethane to Norway in March this	10 11 12 13 14 15	Jan 16 Feb 16 Mar 16
Share of Ethane in NGLs (RHS) Ethane vs Henry Hub

year. Reliance is also expected to start offtaking US ethane in December for its cracker in Jamnagar. Both
export outlets and possible completions of petrochemical projects in the near term point to increased ethane
demand – and supply as a result.
76543210
$/MBtu US Ethane Extraction Economics

SUPPLY INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY – OIL MARKET REPORT
24 14 JUNE 2016
Canada – Newfoundland April actual, Alberta March actual, others February actual: The wildfires raging
across Alberta since late April slashed Canadian oil production to only 3.5 mb/d in May, its lowest level
since June 2012. At its peak in early May, a total of 1.3 mb/d of production was shut in, and an estimated
865 kb/d of output disrupted on average for the month. According to preliminary information, Albertan oil
sands output was already running at reduced rates in April, in line with normal seasonal maintenance
trends. During the course of May and in early June, most companies had resumed operations or were in
the process of starting up, however, with no damage reported to production facilities or other
infrastructure. We expect a gradual ramp up in output over June, and a return to normal output by midJuly, when Syncrude is also expected to ramp up production following completion of the scheduled
turnaround.
3.4
3.6
3.8
4.0
4.2
4.4
4.6
4.8
5.0
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan
mb/d Canada Total Oil Supply
2014 2015
2016 2016 forecast
2017 forecast
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
1Q12 1Q13 1Q14 1Q15 1Q16 1Q17
mb/d Canadian Oil Sands Output
Synthetic Crude In Situ Bitumen
These prolonged and extensive shutdowns are expected to erase previously anticipated supply growth in
Canada this year. Total output is now forecast to average slightly less than 4.4 mb/d, largely unchanged
from 2015. In contrast, as output resumes and new projects are commissioned and ramp up towards
capacity, supply growth in 2017 still looks to be on track. Indeed, Canada emerges as the largest source of
non-OPEC supply growth next year, expanding by 240 kb/d to 4.6 mb/d.
Growth is forecast from a number of new start-ups. Amongst others, ConocoPhillips’ Surmont 2 project,
which was completed last year, will continue to ramp up towards its 118 kb/d capacity through 2017.
Canada Natural Resources will complete phase 2B and 3 of its Horizon expansion program, in October
2016 and by end 2017 respectively, lifting capacity by a total of 125 kb/d to around 250 kb/d. Cenovus,
meanwhile, will add 50 kb/d of capacity to its Christina Lake and 30 kb/d to its Foster Creek in situ projects
later this year. Towards the end of 2017, Suncor plans to commission its Fort Hills mining project. The
company has announced it expects the project to deliver roughly 180 kb/d of bitumen within 12 months
of start-up. The Exxon operated Hebron oil field, located offshore Newfoundland and Labrador, holds
more than 700 mb of recoverable resources and targeting output of around 150 kb/d. Production is due
to start by the end of 2017.
Mexico – April actual, May preliminary: Mexican total oil
production fell by 30 kb/d in April, with declines across all
production systems. Standing just shy of 2.5 mb/d,
supplies were nevertheless only marginally lower than a
year earlier, when output was curbed by a fire at an
offshore production installation, and in contrast with
annual declines of 130 kb/d over the previous 12 months.
Mexico’s mature fields are expected to continue to decline
through 2016 and 2017, by an average 124 kb/d and
100 kb/d respectively, to reach 2.37 mb/d in 2017, of
which 2.08 mb/d is crude. NGL production, averaging
325 kb/d in 2015, is set to drop to 280 kb/d in 2017.
2.25
2.50
2.75
3.00
3.25
3.50
3.75
4.00
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
mb/d Mexico Total Oil Supply
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY – OIL MARKET REPORT SUPPLY
14 JUNE 2016 25
North Sea
North Sea production increased by an average of 215 kb/d compared with a year earlier over the first four
months the year, on a number of new field start-ups. Loadings data, compiled by Retuers suggest output
dipped in June, as maintenance at Conoco’s Ekofisk field on the Norwegian Shelf started on a major
maintenance work. UK’s largest field, Buzzard is expected to start maintenance in September.
Norway – March preliminary, April provisional: Norwegian oil production exceeded expectations in April,
inching up 20 kb/d from a month earlier. As 2.03 mb/d, total oil output was nearly 90 kb/d higher than a
year earlier, largely in line with gains seen so far this year, underpinned by the start-up of new fields. Most
notably, the 80 kb/d Edvard Grieg field, which started producing in December, had ramped up to 60 kb/d
by March, the latest month for which field level data are available. Eni’s 100 kb/d Goliat field, meanwhile,
produced 27 kb/d in March, its first month of production. The steady increase in flows towards capacity of
these two fields is expected to support Norwegian production in 2016, with output forecast to average
1.94 mb/d, only marginally lower than in 2015.
New fields will also prop up output in 2017. Det Norske targets first oil from its Ivar Aasen project by
December this year, and the field is expected to produce an average of 40 kb/d of oil in 2017. Early next
year, Statoil is planning to launch its Gina Krog field, which is expected to yield 60 kb/d of oil at its peak.
Total Norwegian oil production is nevertheless forecast to slip by 55 kb/d in 2017, to 1.9 mb/d, as output
from new fields no longer offset decline at mature fields and a number of marginal fields will be
decommissioned. Statoil is preparing to dismantle the Njord platform over the coming months, before
revamping or replacing the installation and its storage vessel in three to four years’ time. Statoil is also
planning to terminate its Volve field (which produced 9 kb/d in March) in the third quarter this year. Jotun
and Vette will cease production in October while Repsol will shut its Varg field (4 kb/d) in August.
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan
mb/d Norway Total Oil Supply
2014 2015
2016 2016 forecast
2017 forecast
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan
kb/d United Kingdom Total Oil Supply
2014 2015
2016 2016 forecast
2017 forecast
UK –March actual, April Preliminary: While slipping marginally over March and April, to 1.05 mb/d in the
latest month, UK oil production continues to post robust year-on-year gains. Standing 60 kb/d above last
year, April marked the thirteenth consecutive month of annual gains. Output is expected to fall off
seasonally through September, when the large Buzzard field is scheduled to undertake maintenance.
Given the recent high output, we forecast a slight increase in UK output for this year of around 25 kb/d.
While UK production is set to return to its declining trend in 2017, the start-up of a number of large
projects could see output surprise to the upside yet again. BP is on track to commission its Quad 204
project, designed to extend the life of the Schiehallion and Loyal fields, located west of Shetland by the
end of 2016. The Quad 204 project includes a new floating, production, storage and offloading (FPSO)
vessel, the Glen Lyon, expected to add 105 kb/d in 2017. Towards the end of 2017, BP is also poised to
launch its Clair Ridge project, a second-phase development to the Clair field, which has been producing
since 2005. In 2017, EnQuest’s Kraken field and Premier Oil’s Catcher, both with capacity of around
50 kb/d is also expected to start-up.
SUPPLY INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY – OIL MARKET REPORT
26 14 JUNE 2016
Non-OECD
Latin America
Brazil – April actual: Maintenance and production problems early this year look set to stymie Brazilian
output growth in 2016, with production now expected to inch up only 40 kb/d from the 2015 average. As
issues are resolved and new production units progressively ramp up, growth is expected to resume in
2017, adding 270 kb/d, to reach 2.8 mb/d.
The latest production figures released by ANP, the national oil industry regulator, show Brazilian crude oil
output continued to lag year-earlier levels in April, inching up only 20 kb/d from the month prior. At
2.3 mb/d, output was more than 100 kb/d below a year ago, extending year-on-year declines seen since
the start of the year. Output from the Marlim fields in the Campos basin recovered last month, rising by
50 kb/d to 410 kb/d. Flows from the Albacora field, which had slipped to only 9 kb/d in March as
Petrobras completed corrective maintenance at the FPSO operating the field, recovered to 54 kb/d. The
latest month saw a 120 kb/d drop in output from the prolific Lula field (to stand on par with the previous
year at 308 kb/d). Supplies from Saphinoa, meanwhile, reached a new high of 230 kb/d, 40 kb/d above a
year earlier.
Output is expected to recover quickly as maintenance is terminated and production ramps up from new
units. At the end of May, the newly converted Cidade de Saquarema FPSO was heading for the Lula field.
The FPSO, which has oil-processing capacity of 150 kb/d, is set to start producing from the giant field in
the Santos basin in 3Q16.
By the end of 2017, Petrobras is scheduled to add another seven FPSOs in the Santos basin, including
three in the Lula field, two in the Buzios field, one in the Lapa field and one at the giant Libra area. Reports
suggest that four of these floaters — the replica FPSOs meant for Lula South and Lula Extreme South plus
the P-74 and P-76 destined for Buzios — experienced major problems during their construction phase
suggesting commissioning of some of the units could well be delayed beyond 2017.
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan
mb/d Brazil Crude Oil Production
2014 2015
2016 2016 forecast
2017 forecast
800
850
900
950
1000
1050
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan
kb/d Colombia Crude Oil Production
2014 2015
2016 2016 forecast
2017 forecast
Colombia – April actual: Hefty spending cuts are having a marked impact on Colombian oil production.
The latest data released by the Ministry of Mines and Energy show crude oil output averaging 914 kb/d in
April, largely unchanged from a month earlier but 115 kb/d, or 11%, lower than one year ago.
It is not clear to which extent the recent output drops are due to attacks on infrastructure by rebel groups.
Colombian state-run player, Ecopetrol, suspended production at its Cano Limon-Covenas pipeline in the
north-eastern part of the country after it was targeted by two bomb attacks earlier this year. FARC and
Colombian rebel group National Liberation Army (ELN) have often targeted oil infrastructure, bombing
pipelines and trucks carrying crude oil.
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY – OIL MARKET REPORT SUPPLY
14 JUNE 2016 27
More importantly, the drop in oil prices since 2014 prompted Colombian oil producers to rationalise
investments and shut in marginal high cost fields. The country’s largest oil producer, state-run Ecopetrol,
slashed spending this year by a hefty 40%, to $4.8 billion, following a 26% cut in 2015. Colombia’s largest
private player, Pacific Production and Exploration Corp (previously Pacific Rubiales), meanwhile, cut its
capital expenditures during 2015 by a massive $1.7 billion, or 70%, to $726 million. While the company
has not published its business or spending plans for 2016-2017, capital expenditures during the first
quarter of 2016 totalled $19 million, $207 million lower than the $226 million spent in the first quarter of
2015. In its investor update the company writes, “in light of the current weak commodity price
environment, since the second half of 2015 our capital expenditure programs have been cut back
significantly to approximately equal cash flow”.
The spending cuts are clearly starting to affect production. Pacific reported an 11% decline in its
Colombian oil and gas output in 1Q16, attributing the drop to the natural decline of the Llanos oil fields,
which it said “have not been sustained by drilling activity”. Ecopetrol is also seeing declines at mature
fields and announced earlier this year it would shut in production at its onshore Akacias and Cano Sur
fields due to low oil prices. We are projecting Colombian oil production to decline by 100 kb/d this year
and a further 40 kb/d in 2017, to an average 870 kb/d.
Asia

China –April actual: China’s oil production has seen sharp declines so far this year. The latest data shows output 4.5 mb/d

China Total Oil Supply

dropping another 55 kb/d in April. At 4.04 mb/d total

Chinese domestic crude production was 220 kb/d below a year earlier. While little field level information is available, the latest data suggests year-on-year declines this year could be even greater than previously expected (see China

4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3

production slows in OMR dated 14 April). We have reduced

our 2016 production estimates by 70 kb/d since last month’s Report, to 4.09 mb/d, or 230 kb/d below the 2015 average. Output is expected to decline further in 2017, but by a lesser extent, to average 4.03 mb/d.	Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan 2014 2015
2016 2017 forecast	2016 forecast

Africa
New projects in Ghana and the Republic of Congo are set to drive growth in 2017. Ghana’s oil output is
expected to hold steady this year at around 100 kb/d, as new output from the Tweneboa-EnyenraNtomme (TEN) project offsets losses from the Jubilee field. Production at Jubilee was interrupted earlier
this year due to technical problems but output resumed in May. First production at the new Tullowoperated TEN offshore field is expected in August. Similar to Jubilee, the development includes the use of
an FPSO that has a facility production capacity of 80 kb/d that will be tied into subsea infrastructure across
the field. In the Congo, meanwhile, Total is on track to ramp up production at its Moho Nord
development. Total completed the first phase of the project, Moho Bilondo phase 1 bis at the end of 2015
and is expected to complete the second phase of the Moho Nord project in 2016. Once fully operational,
output at Moho Nord is expected to plateau at 140 kb/d. Gabon, which produced 230 kb/d in 2014, the
latest year for which official production data is available, will rejoin OPEC on 1 July.
Former Soviet Union
Russia – April actual, May provisional: Russian oil production was largely unchanged in May from a
month earlier, at 10.8 mb/d, according to preliminary government data. While output was marginally
lower than a month earlier and the peak level above 10.9 mb/d reached at the start of the year,
production was nevertheless some 120 kb/d higher than a year earlier. Smaller producers continued to
3.9
4.4

SUPPLY INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY – OIL MARKET REPORT
28 14 JUNE 2016
lead growth, with Bashneft, Tatneft, Gazprom Neft and Novatek posting notable gains. Russia’s two
largest producers, Rosneft and Lukoil, meanwhile, continue to see declines despite efforts to reverse
output falls at mature fields. The two companies, which, combined, account for half of total Russian crude
and condensate output, have so far this year recorded annual output declines of 1% and 5%, respectively,
or a combined 100 kb/d.
During the presentation of its 1Q16 financial results, Lukoil announced that it expects its production to be
marginally reduced this year, which will be offset by new fields once they come onstream. In contrast to
its peers, who have increased ruble spending on development drilling by 32% y-o-y, Lukoil, slashed drilling
spending by 26% during the quarter. Lukoil is preparing to launch two new fields this year, the Filanovsky
in the Caspian in September and the northern Pyakyakhinskoye field during 4Q16. Output from Filanovksy
is expected to reach 120 kb/d by the end of 2017 and these new projects will help to offset declines at
mature fields
Other gains are expected to come from Gazprom Neft’s Novoport project as it progressively ramps up to
its 110 kb/d capacity by 2018. The East Messoyakha (Rosneft & Gazpromneft) project is under way and
production will ramp up to 110 kb/d during 2018. Around the Vancor cluster, Rosneft is expected to start
production at Suzun in the coming weeks (target is 90 kb/d by 2017) and at Tagulskoe by year-end. Some
additional production could also come from Labagan and Northern Chaivo on Sakhalin. As such, total
crude and condensate production is set to average 10.82 mb/d in 2016, an increase of 100 kb/d from 2015
before dropping by around 55 kb/d next year, to 10.76 mb/d.
10.3
10.4
10.5
10.6
10.7
10.8
10.9
11.0
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan
mb/d Russia Crude Oil Production
2014 2015
2016 2016 forecast
2017 forecast
1.50
1.55
1.60
1.65
1.70
1.75
1.80
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan
mb/d Kazakhstan Total Oil Supply
2014 2015
2016 2016 forecast
2017 forecast
Kazakhstan – April actual: Kazakhstan’s oil production dropped by a sharp 115 kb/d in April as output
from the country’s second largest producer, Karachaganak Petroleum Operating Company, run by Shell
and Eni, saw its output slip by more than 30%, or roughly 100 kb/d, from a month earlier due to
maintenance. Output from Kazakhstan’s largest producer, Tengizchevroil, held steady around 575 kb/d.
For 2016 as a whole, Kazakh oil output is forecast to drop by 40 kb/d on average, to 1.6 mb/d. Output is
forecast slightly higher in 2017 as volumes from the long delayed Kashagan mega-project, expected to
come on stream later this year or in mid-2017, offset declines in mature fields. Kazakhstan’s energy
minister said earlier this month that he expects the project to be relaunched by the end of this year, with
initial crude production at around 8 kb/d in December. The project is expected to ramp up gradually
towards its first-phase capacity of 360 kb/d by 2019.
FSU net crude oil exports eased 150 kb/d in April, falling below the exceptional level of 7 mb/d seen in
March. Total exports fell even though total flows through the Transneft system were at a 10-year high,
propelled by exceptional shipments from Baltic port of Primorsk. Overall sailings from the Baltic were over
1.7 mb/d, the highest in more than two years. Both tanker tracking data and loading schedules suggest
that May sailings remained flat on the month. Exports from Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) were down
more than 200 kb/d on the month, due to pipeline maintenance. Net product exports dipped by 260 kb/d
from a month earlier, to 3.48 mb/d, on sharply lower gasoil shipments.
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY – OIL MARKET REPORT SUPPLY
14 JUNE 2016 29
Mar 16 Apr 15
Crude
Black Sea 1.62 1.64 1.56 1.59 1.60 1.82 1.72 1.96 1.64 1.84 1.59 -0.32 0.05
Baltic 1.33 1.45 1.45 1.38 1.51 1.54 1.60 1.53 1.75 1.44 1.56 0.22 0.19
Arctic/FarEast 1.14 1.41 1.41 1.41 1.47 1.57 1.54 1.61 1.63 1.38 1.43 0.02 0.20
BTC 0.60 0.62 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.70 0.77 0.63 0.59 0.61 0.58 -0.04 0.01
Crude Seaborne 4.69 5.12 5.03 4.98 5.20 5.62 5.64 5.73 5.62 5.26 5.16 -0.12 0.45
Druzhba Pipeline 1.01 1.07 1.08 1.06 1.08 1.04 1.09 1.03 1.06 1.14 1.10 0.03 -0.04
Other Routes 0.40 0.24 0.24 0.23 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.20 0.19 0.25 0.26 -0.02 -0.07
Total Crude Exports 6.14 6.43 6.35 6.27 6.49 6.87 6.91 7.01 6.86 6.65 6.52 -0.14 0.34
of which: Transneft 1 3.88 4.19 4.16 4.08 4.23 4.32 4.27 4.41 4.64 4.31 4.36 0.22 0.28
of which: Russian crude 4.02 4.42 4.44 4.30 4.47 4.57 4.56 4.67 4.95 4.50 4.60 0.28 0.36
Products
Fuel oil2 1.72 1.49 1.51 1.31 1.48 1.35 1.08 1.35 1.28 1.60 1.75 -0.07 -0.47
of which: VGO 0.27 0.25 0.24 0.25 0.28 0.22 0.23 0.14 0.32 0.24 0.28 0.18 0.05
Gasoil 0.95 0.98 1.03 0.82 0.84 1.17 1.14 1.21 0.95 1.22 1.08 -0.25 -0.12
Other Products 0.57 0.66 0.69 0.58 0.66 0.71 0.76 0.63 0.69 0.75 0.65 0.07 0.04
Total Product 3.25 3.13 3.23 2.71 2.97 3.22 2.98 3.19 2.93 3.58 3.48 -0.26 -0.55
Total Exports 9.38 9.56 9.58 8.98 9.46 10.10 9.90 10.19 9.79 10.23 10.00 -0.40 -0.21
Imports 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.04 0.03 0.05 0.00 0.04 0.05 -0.05 -0.05
Net Exports 9.30 9.50 9.53 8.91 9.38 10.05 9.87 10.14 9.79 10.18 9.94 -0.35 -0.16
Sources: Argus Media Ltd, IEA estimates
1Transneft data exclude Russian CPC volumes.
2Includes Vacuum Gas Oil
FSU Net Exports of Crude & Petroleum Products
(million barrels per day)
Last month vs
2014 2015 2Q2015 3Q2015 4Q2015 1Q2016 Feb 16 Mar 16 Apr 16 Mar 15 Apr 15
Biofuels
Biofuels skew monthly and annual changes
The seasonality of biofuels supply, in particular the

production of ethanol from sugar cane in Brazil, sometimes masks the underlying changes in other liquids supplies. Brazilian ethanol production swings from practically zero in December and January to 900 kb/d at its seasonal peak in the northern hemisphere summer months. Due to this, very large seasonal swing the overall total non-OPEC supply

1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0

changes from month to month can be misleading at
first glance and care must be taken in analysing the
data.

Moreover, variabilities in weather and the harvest season can also have significant impacts on year-on

2017 forecast

year changes. Notably, in April, the latest month for which Brazilian biofuels production is reported by the
National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels, output surged by nearly 500 kb/d, a month ahead of
normal seasonal patterns. As a result, global biofuels, up 520 kb/d m-o-m and 370 kb/d y-o-y in April, capped
declines in all other supplies, which slipped by a combined 860 kb/d and 1250 kb/d in that month. While it is
possible that the entire Brazilian ethanol season has been advanced this year and May will see similar annual
gains, we have in the Report assumed that output will return to trend from May and through the remainder
of the year.
After posting modest growth of only 35 kb/d in 2015, global biofuels production is expected to expand by
120 kb/d in 2016 and a further 70 kb/d next year to an average of 2.45 mb/d.
1.6
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan
mb/d Global Biofuels Supply

2014 2016

2015 2016 forecast

STOCKS INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY – OIL MARKET REPORT
30 14 JUNE 2016
STOCKS
Summary
• Commercial inventories in the OECD rebounded from March levels by 14.4 mb to stand at 3 065 mb
by end-April, an impressive 222 mb above one year earlier. By end-month refined product cover stood
at 32.9 days, 0.3 days below end-March.
• As the US driving season kicks off, OECD gasoline inventories stand above average levels and last
year in absolute and days of forward demand terms. There is a similar picture in China. However, as
refiners struggle to produce the required gasoline volumes, they could also push extra middle distillates
onto already saturated markets and cause inventories of these products to swell further.
• Preliminary data for May suggest that, compared to April, OECD inventories increased by 3.7 mb, far
more modest than the 26.5 mb five-year average build for the month. Stocks were higher in Japan
and Europe, more than offsetting a counter-seasonal decrease in the US.
• Chinese stock building has continued apace over recent months with volumes destined for both
commercial and strategic storage. Reports suggest that the 18 mb first phase of the Yangpu terminal in
the southern province of Hainan was commissioned in May.
• In the wake of further logistical bottlenecks, floating storage increased by 5 mb to stand at 94 mb by
end-May, the highest since April 2009. Much of the increase is offshore Qingdao, China, where tankers
are moored waiting to offload crude destined for Chinese independent refiners.
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan
days
OECD Gasoline Stocks Days of
Forward Demand
Range 2011-2015 Avg 2011-2015
2015 2016
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan
days
OECD Middle Distillates Stocks
Days of Forward Demand
Range 2011-2015 Avg 2011-2015
2015 2016
Global overview
With the US driving season kicking off, it is pertinent to discuss whether gasoline stocks are comfortable
heading into the peak demand season. Furthermore, considering recent strength in US and Chinese
gasoline consumption highlighted by this Report, it is important to assess whether holdings can check a
repeat of last year’s gasoline tightness in key markets that saw global gasoline prices rise.
OECD gasoline stocks stand above last year in both absolute and days of forward demand terms.
Moreover, in the key US Atlantic Coast market, stocks at end-May stood 7 mb (11 %) above year-earlier
levels. Considering that last summer the delta between the peak and nadir in PADD 1 inventories was
6 mb, inventories there now appear comfortable. However, considering that there will be no annual
growth in US refinery throughputs over coming months, this cushion could diminish rapidly. In China, the
picture also appears more comfortable than last year. According to commercial data published by China
Oil, Gas and Petrochemicals (China OGP), at end-April Chinese gasoline inventories stood around 15 mb
above one-year earlier.
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY – OIL MARKET REPORT STOCKS
14 JUNE 2016 31
On the flip side, as refiners struggle to produce the required volumes of gasoline they are also pushing
middle distillates onto already saturated markets. In the OECD, middle distillate stocks remain significantly
above last year in both absolute and days of forward demand terms due to high supply and the lack of a
prolonged spell of cold weather in key consuming countries during the Northern Hemisphere winter. In
Europe, stocks in independent storage in Northwest Europe have remained at close to tank tops for much
of the past year. This enabled the transfer of diesel to France in response to the recent refinery strikes. In
Asia, middle distillates markets are similarly weak. One factor behind this has been persistently high
Chinese diesel exports that have approached 300 kb/d in recent months. Chinese refiners have been
struggling to keep up with rampant gasoline demand and at the same time have had to deal with
lacklustre domestic diesel demand as the economy shifts into a lower gear. The upshot is that they have
looked further afield to market their products. Chinese refiners had some success in decreasing their
domestic diesel inventories that stood 10 mb lower year-on-year at end-April, but China’s diesel stocks
have merely been transferred elsewhere in Asia.
OECD inventory position at end-April and revisions to preliminary data
Industry inventories in the OECD rebounded in April by 14.4 mb to stand at 3 065 mb by end-month. Since
the build was more modest than the 20.5 mb five-year average, the surplus of inventories versus average
levels narrowed to 357 mb from 363 mb one month earlier. Nonetheless, stocks still stood an impressive
222 mb above one year earlier.
Am Europe As. Ocean Total Am Europe As. Ocean Total Am Europe As. Ocean Total
Crude Oil 13.0 3.8 -2.1 14.6 0.43 0.13 -0.07 0.49 0.54 -0.12 -0.11 0.32
Gasoline -2.6 -0.6 -0.7 -3.9 -0.09 -0.02 -0.02 -0.13 0.09 0.09 0.03 0.21
Middle Distillates -9.8 -1.1 3.4 -7.6 -0.33 -0.04 0.11 -0.25 0.06 0.08 -0.08 0.06
Residual Fuel Oil -0.9 -2.0 -0.4 -3.3 -0.03 -0.07 -0.01 -0.11 0.01 0.06 -0.01 0.06
Other Products 13.8 0.0 -1.9 11.9 0.46 0.00 -0.06 0.40 -0.30 0.01 0.06 -0.23
Total Products 0.5 -3.7 0.3 -2.9 0.02 -0.12 0.01 -0.10 -0.14 0.24 0.00 0.10
Other Oils1 -0.1 -0.1 2.8 2.7 0.00 0.00 0.09 0.09 -0.03 0.05 -0.04 -0.03
Total Oil 13.4 0.0 1.0 14.4 0.45 0.00 0.03 0.48 0.37 0.16 -0.15 0.39
1 Other oils includes NGLs, feedstocks and other hydrocarbons.
Preliminary Industry Stock Change in April 2016 and First Quarter 2016
April 2016 (preliminary) First Quarter 2016
(million barrels) (million barrels per day) (million barrels per day)
The monthly build was driven by rising crude oil holdings (+14.6 mb) as refinery throughputs remained
constrained, especially in the US and Canada. Further upward momentum came from the restocking of
propane in the US as the space heating demand season ended. Accordingly, holdings of ‘other products’
rose by 11.9 mb across the OECD. Meanwhile, stocks of NGLS and other feedstocks rose by a combined
2.7 mb.
Refined products stocks slipped by 2.9 mb, and on a forward cover basis, they covered 32.9 days at endmonth, 0.3 days below end-March. However, when excluding the build in ‘other products’ – which largely
bypass the refinery system – ‘traditional’ refined products drew by a combined 14.7 mb. Notably, middle
distillates fell by 7.6 mb but remained a healthy 77 mb above average while motor gasoline inventories
dropped by 3.9 mb to stand 26 mb above average.
Upon receipt of more complete data, OECD inventories were revised upwards by 5.8 mb in March.
Together with a 6.3 mb upward adjustment in February, the 1.1 mb draw for March presented in last
month’s Report is now seen slightly steeper at 1.7 mb. The bulk of the March adjustment came in the
Americas where US crude stocks were 5 mb higher than first assessed. Data for Asia Oceania came in
2.3 mb higher in March while European inventories remained stable.
STOCKS INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY – OIL MARKET REPORT
32 14 JUNE 2016
(million barrels)
Americas Europe Asia Oceania OECD
Feb-16 Mar-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Feb-16 Mar-16
Crude Oil 0.6 5.0 2.9 1.4 0.0 -0.4 3.5 5.9
Gasoline 0.0 -0.8 0.6 -3.8 0.0 1.6 0.6 -3.1
Middle Distillates 0.0 -2.5 0.8 1.7 0.0 0.7 0.8 -0.1
Residual Fuel Oil 0.0 0.5 0.4 3.2 0.0 0.3 0.4 4.0
Other Products 0.0 -3.1 -0.3 -1.4 0.1 0.5 -0.2 -4.0
Total Products 0.0 -5.8 1.4 -0.3 0.1 3.0 1.6 -3.1
Other Oils1 1.4 4.3 -0.1 -1.1 0.0 -0.3 1.3 3.0
Total Oil 2.0 3.5 4.2 0.0 0.1 2.3 6.3 5.8
1 Other oils includes NGLs, feedstocks and other hydrocarbons.
Revisions versus May 2016 Oil Market Report
Preliminary data for May suggest that OECD stocks rose by a weak 3.7 mb after being pressured upwards
by Japanese (+5.5 mb) and European inventories (+2.0 mb) which offset a counter-seasonal fall in the US (-
3.7 mb). On a product-by-product basis, refined products increased by 12.8 mb, after a further build in
‘other products’ in the US as the seasonal restocking of propane continues, offset draws in middle
distillates (5.0 mb), motor gasoline (2.4 mb) and fuel oil (2.3 mb). As refinery throughputs in the US and
Europe continue to ramp up, crude oil drew by 7.0 mb as a build in OECD Asia (where refinery
throughputs fell), offset a counter-seasonal draw in the US.
Recent OECD industry stock changes
OECD Americas
Commercial inventories in OECD Americas continue to drive total OECD stocks upwards. In April, they
added a broadly seasonal 13.4 mb, a similar build to that posted in March. So far this year, they have
increased by 47.1 mb to stand at 1 637 mb, 262 mb above average. The bulk of recent builds have been in
crude oil as refiners undertook seasonal maintenance. Builds were further boosted by higher crude
imports in the wake of narrow transatlantic spreads. In April, crude stocks built by 13.0 mb to stand
156 mb and 66 mb above average and last year, respectively.
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan
mb OECD Americas Crude Oil Stocks
Range 2011-2015 Avg 2011-2015
2015 2016
230
240
250
260
270
280
290
300
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan
mb OECD Americas Gasoline Stocks
Range 2011-2015 Avg 2011-2015
2015 2016
Refined products inched up by 0.5 mb as a seasonal increase in ‘other products’ (led by seasonal propane
restocking), more-than-offset draws in all main refined products. Output of these products was
constrained as US refiners ran at their lowest April utilisation rates for three years. Middle distillates
holdings dropped by a steep 9.8 mb as exports remained close to record levels. Motor gasoline stocks
slipped by 2.6 mb but remained 21 mb and 12 mb above average and year earlier levels, respectively. Due
to a stronger demand prognosis, the demand cover picture is slightly tighter, with motor gasoline stocks
covering 24.1 days of forward demand at end-month, a slim 0.6 days above last year. All told, refined
product inventories covered 31.1 days of forward demand at end-month, 0.2 days below end-March.
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY – OIL MARKET REPORT STOCKS
14 JUNE 2016 33
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
Jan Apr Jul Oct
mb US Weekly Total Distillate Stocks
Range 2011-2015 5-yr Average
2015 2016

Source: EIA

40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
Jan Apr Jul Oct
mb US Weekly PADD 1 Gasoline Stocks
Range 2011-2015 5-yr Average
2015 2016

Source: EIA

Weekly data from the US Energy Information Administration suggest that stock builds ended abruptly in
May as inventories dropped counter-seasonally by 3.7 mb. The draw was centred on crude oil (-9.1 mb) as
refinery demand soared following the end of turnarounds. This also saw NGLs and other feedstock
inventories decrease counter-seasonally by 2.1 mb. Crude stocks also slipped in the wake of a decrease in
imports from Canada as wildfires shut-in up to 1.3 mb/d of production capacity. The draw was centred on
the US Gulf Coast – home to over 50% of US refinery capacity – where stocks dropped by 6.7 mb.
Meanwhile, inventories in the midcontinent slipped by 2.9 mb. Levels at the Cushing, OK storage hub
dropped by 0.4 mb and by end-month stood at 66 mb, nearly 90% of the working storage capacity.
Inventories of refined products posted a 7.4 mb rise, driven by the continued restocking of ‘other
products’. Despite the increase in refinery activity, stocks of the main refined products drew by a
combined 9.7 mb. As with the previous month, falling stocks of middle distillates (-5.0 mb) accounted for
the lion’s share of the draw. Initial indications from the weekly data are that refiner’s middle distillate
yields have decreased slightly. Gasoline inventories extended recent draws and fell by 2.4 mb with
inventories in the key PADD 1 (the Atlantic Coast) region remaining 10 mb and 9 mb above average and
the previous year, respectively.
OECD Europe
Commercial inventories in OECD Europe remained steady at 1 005 mb in April as draws of 3.7 mb and
0.1 mb in refined products and NGLS and feedstocks, respectively, were cancelled out by a 3.8 mb build in
crude oil stocks. The build in crude oil likely resulted from relatively low refinery runs that, although
higher versus March, were around 300 kb/d lower than one year earlier. On the products side, all
categories bar ‘other products’ posted draws. Notably, fuel oil drew by 2.0 mb amid healthy trade to
South East Asia. Motor gasoline fell by a muted 0.6 mb to leave stocks 6 mb and 5 mb above average and
last year, respectively. Due to a more pessimistic European demand projection going forward, the picture
is improved somewhat on a days of forward cover basis, with regional inventories covering 51 days of
forward demand, 3 days above one year earlier. Moreover, at end-April, total refined products inventories
covered 42.1 days, 0.6 days lower than end-March but 4.3 days above April 2015.
At the end of May France was hit by strikes at its refineries and by blockades of fuel depots. The French
government authorised the release of strategic stocks. At present, little information is available on the
volumes released, thought to be primarily transport fuels. Latest data for end-April suggest that in France
total (government plus industry) stocks of gasoline covered 87 days of forward demand, while on the
same basis stocks of middle distillates covered 79 days. Additionally, reports suggest that stocks of
gasoline and gasoil held in independent storage in Northwest Europe declined at end-May as volumes
were shipped southwards to France. Moreover, data from Euroilstock show a counter-seasonal draw in
middle distillate stocks in May, centred in France. Overall Euroilstock data suggest that regional
inventories defied seasonal trends in May and rose by 2.0 mb as a 2.1 mb increase in refined products
offset a 0.1 mb decrease in crude oil.
STOCKS INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY – OIL MARKET REPORT
34 14 JUNE 2016
34
36
38
40
42
44
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan
days
OECD Europe Total Products Stocks
Days of Forward Demand
Range 2011-2015 Avg 2011-2015
2015 2016
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan
days
France Middle Distillates Stocks
Days of Forward Demand
Range 2011-2015 Avg 2011-2015
2015 2016
OECD Asia Oceania
April saw commercial oil inventories in OECD Asia Oceania build (+1.1 mb m-o-m) for the first time this
year. Despite this, at end-month stocks remained 12.4 mb lower than at end-2015. The build was driven
by NGLS and feedstocks for which stocks rose seasonally by 2.9 mb as Japanese refiners and
petrochemical producers increased their holdings. Meanwhile, as refinery throughputs remained steady,
crude oil holdings drew by a seasonal 2.1 mb with the lion’s share of the draw accounted for by Japan and
Korea that posted draws of 0.8 mb apiece. Refined products inched up by 0.3 mb after a 3.4 mb increase
in middle distillates more-than-offset draws of 2.0 mb, 0.7 mb and 0.4 mb in ‘other products’, motor
gasoline and fuel oil, respectively. By end-month, regional gasoline holdings stood at 25 mb, 0.7 mb below
average. Nonetheless, compared to one year earlier, gasoline inventories stood 0.9 mb higher on an
absolute basis and 0.7 days higher on a forward demand cover basis. All told, refined product cover
remained at 22.1 days at end-April, steady with one month earlier.
13
14
15
16
17
18
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan
days
OECD Asia Oceania Gasoline
Stocks Days of Forward Demand
Range 2011-2015 Avg 2011-2015
2015 2016
20
22
24
26
28
30
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan
days
OECD Asia Oceania Middle
Distillates Stocks Days of Forward
Demand
Range 2011-2015 Avg 2011-2015
2015 2016
According to data from the Petroleum Association of Japan, commercial oil inventories added 5.5 mb in
May. As refiners entered maintenance, stocks of crude oil built seasonally by 2.2 mb. However, the
decrease in refinery output did not affect refined product stocks that increased by 3.3 mb, which suggests
that product imports remained healthy. Indeed, only fuel oil (-0.5 mb) posted a draw with middle
distillates, ‘other products’ and motor gasoline posting builds of 2.7 mb, 0.9 mb and 0.2 mb, respectively.
Recent developments in Non-OECD stocks
According to data from China OGP, Chinese commercial crude oil inventories dropped by 8.3 mb in April
as an increase in refinery runs compounded the effect of a decrease in crude net imports. For products,
stocks fell by an equivalent 4.3 mb. The decline was centred in gasoil / diesel stocks which dropped by
10.9 mb as exports remained close to record highs, offsetting lacklustre domestic demand. In contrast,
gasoline holdings (+6.5 mb) remained on an upward trajectory as refiners continue to tweak their yields to
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY – OIL MARKET REPORT STOCKS
14 JUNE 2016 35
produce more to satisfy buoyant domestic demand. By end-April, gasoline stocks stood around 15 mb
higher than one year earlier.
In May, Chinese stock building appears to be continuing apace with crude imports surging to 7.6 mb/d
and, together with domestic production, outstripped
refinery runs. This saw the implied stock build rise above
1 mb/d, with reports suggesting that volumes were
heading to both commercial and strategic storage.
Reports also suggest that the 18 mb first phase of the
Yangpu terminal in the southern province of Hainan, has
recently been commissioned. When complete, this
terminal will have 76 mb of storage capacity and it is
suggested that at least some tanks in Phase 1 will be used
for the SPR. Shipping data suggest that seven vessels
called at the port in May, three more than in April and
offloaded an average of 260 kb/d of crude.
Data from International Enterprise indicate that land-based stocks of residual fuel oil attained a new
record level exceeding 31 mb in late-May. Fuel oil markets remain weak globally due to the dramatic loss
of market share in power generation. In China, less is imported by independent refiners now that they
have access to crude import licences and less is used as marine fuel within North America and Northwest
Europe. This has seen many regions, notably Europe, export excess fuel oil to South East Asia with stocks
surging accordingly. As tanks have brimmed, many market participants have turned to floating storage. All
told, by early-June, total land-based stocks of refined products stood at a record 58.2 mb, after surging by
6.8 mb during the month.
With stocks in Singapore persistently high and a flotilla of tankers storing products in the vicinity of the
Malacca Straits, the recent commissioning of the 4.6 mb Karimun storage terminal in Indonesia is a
welcome relief. The terminal, jointly operated by Oiltanking and Gunvor, will be used to store clean
products, petrochemicals and fuel oil and has the capacity to receive VLCCs. Originally slated to start up at
end-2015, the terminal reportedly received its first consignment of gasoline in the first week of June.
Recent developments in floating storage
Crude oil held in floating storage increased by 5 mb to stand at 94 mb by end-May, the highest level since
April 2009. However, the key difference this time around is that volumes are not growing for speculative
reasons. Instead, rising stocks are caused by logistical bottlenecks in the global oil supply chain. The largest
regional increase came in Asia where volumes increased
by 2.6 mb to 18 mb with a key factor being the large
number of tankers moored off China’s Qingdao terminal

due to port congestion. The terminal serves the Shandong region where a number of independent refiners are located. They have started importing crude oil following the granting by the government of import licences. Elsewhere, volumes stored in the Middle East Gulf increased by 2 mb, with no contribution from Iranian	60 80
0 20 40

volumes. Meanwhile, cargoes stored off Northwest
Europe inched up by 0.5 mb, to 7 mb as market
participants struggle to find on-land tank space in the
ARA region.
100

Jan	Mar	May	Jul	Sep	Nov	Jan
Range 2011-15	Average 2011-15
2015	2016

mb Global short-term crude floating
storage
Source: EA Gibson, IEA estimates
(20)
(10)
0
10
20
30
40
Apr 15 Jul 15 Oct 15 Jan 16 Apr 16
mb China Monthly Oil Stock Change*
Crude Gasoline Gasoil Kerosene
*Since August 2010, COGP only reports percentage stock change
Source: China Oil, Gas & Petrochemicals
STOCKS INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY – OIL MARKET REPORT
36 14 JUNE 2016
1 Days of forw ard demand are based on average demand over the next three months
Days1 Million Barrels
Regional OECD End-of-Month Industry Stocks
(in days of forward demand and million barrels of total oil)
56
58
60
62
64
66
68
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan
Days OECD Total Oil
Range 2011-2015 Avg 2011-2015
2015 2016
52
54
56
58
60
62
64
66
68
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan
Days Americas

Range 2011-2015 2015

Avg 2011-2015 2016

62
64
66
68
70
72
74
76
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan
Days Europe
Range 2011-2015 Avg 2011-2015
2015 2016
42
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan
Days Asia Oceania
Range 2011-2015 Avg 2011-2015
2015 2016
1,250
1,350
1,450
1,550
1,650
1,750
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan
mb Americas

Range 2011-2015 2015

Avg 2011-2015 2016

850
900
950
1,000
1,050
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan
mb Europe
Range 2011-2015 Avg 2011-2015
2015 2016
380
400
420
440
460
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan
mb Asia Oceania
Range 2011-2015 Avg 2011-2015
2015 2016
2,500
2,600
2,700
2,800
2,900
3,000
3,100
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan
mb OECD Total Oil
Range 2011-2015 Avg 2011-2015
2015 2016
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY – OIL MARKET REPORT PRICES
14 JUNE 2016 37
PRICES
Summary
• Crude oil prices rallied to a 2016 high above $51/bbl in June, stoked by continuing outages in Nigeria
and Canada as well as a steady decline in US production. May marked the third straight month of
average price rises in Brent and WTI futures.
• Spot crude moved higher in May, buoyed by lengthy supply disruptions. The shut-in of Nigerian
output caused buyers to look elsewhere, keeping a lid on Nigerian prices. Dubai flipped into
backwardation, reflecting an acceleration of demand from east of Suez buyers. Saudi Aramco raised
monthly formula prices to Asia, but kept them lower than expected to stay competitive.
• Spot product prices followed crude prices higher in May, but while products in the middle and
bottom of the barrel posted double-digit rises in percentage terms, gains in light distillate prices
were more modest. Considering the recent strength in crude prices, cracks were mixed with only
middle distillates showing consistent strength.
• Freight rates for Suezmaxes on voyages from West Africa took a hit in May, as Nigerian outages
sharply reduced cargo inquiries and rates collapsed below the $10/mt mark – the weakest since
September 2013. Very-large-crude-carriers on the Middle East Gulf-Asia benchmark route seesawed
throughout the month.
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
May 14 Nov 14 May 15 Nov 15 May 16
$/bbl
Crude Futures
Front Month Close
NYMEX WTI ICE Brent

Sour

e: ICE,

NYMEX

75
80
85
90
95
100
105
–
20
40
60
80
100
120
Aug 14 Mar 15 Oct 15 May 16
US $/bbl ICE Brent vs US Dollar Index Index
Brent Trade Close DXY Trade Close
Source: ICE, NYMEX
Market overview
Crude oil prices firmed into mid-June – reaching a 2016 high of more than $51/bbl – as disruptions in
Nigeria and Canada wiped roughly 1.5 mb/d off world supplies (see Supply). Crude futures have nearly
doubled since January – stoked by supply outages and continuing falls in US oil production. A weaker US
dollar also lent some support to prices as it makes purchases of dollar-denominated oil cheaper for
countries using other currencies.
Regardless, ICE Brent’s brief flirtation with backwardation came to an abrupt halt during May. The M1-M2
spread widened to a -$0.48/bbl discount during May versus a premium of $0.05/bbl in April due to
expectations that heavy seasonal maintenance would tighten North Sea supplies.
PRICES INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY – OIL MARKET REPORT
38 14 JUNE 2016
Mar Apr May May-Apr % Week Commencing:
Avg Chg Chg 09 May 16 May 23 May 30 May 06 Jun
NYMEX
Light Sw eet Crude Oil 37.96 41.12 46.80 5.68 13.8 45.45 48.03 49.01 48.97 49.69
RBOB 59.48 62.49 66.39 3.90 6.2 64.52 68.53 68.82 67.96 66.73
No.2 Heating Oil 50.11 52.46 59.66 7.21 13.7 57.27 61.82 62.78 62.93 63.13
No.2 Heating Oil ($/mmbtu) 8.84 9.25 10.52 1.27 13.7 10.10 10.90 11.07 11.10 11.13
Henry Hub Natural Gas ($/mmbtu) 1.81 2.01 2.08 0.07 3.4 2.14 2.04 2.03 2.37 2.47
ICE
Brent 39.79 43.34 47.65 4.31 9.9 46.53 48.94 49.12 49.77 50.55
Gasoil 47.70 49.66 56.94 7.28 14.7 54.19 58.56 59.87 60.19 59.73
Prompt Month Differentials
NYMEX WTI – ICE Brent -1.83 -2.22 -0.85 1.37 -1.08 -0.91 -0.11 -0.80 -0.86
NYMEX No.2 Heating Oil – WTI 12.15 11.34 12.86 1.53 11.82 13.79 13.77 13.96 13.44
NYMEX RBOB – WTI 21.52 21.37 19.59 -1.78 19.07 20.50 19.81 18.99 17.04
NYMEX 3-2-1 Crack (RBOB) 18.39 18.03 17.35 -0.68 16.66 18.27 17.80 17.31 15.84
NYMEX No.2 – Natural Gas ($/mmbtu) 7.03 7.24 8.44 1.20 7.96 8.87 9.04 8.73 8.67
ICE Gasoil – ICE Brent 7.91 6.32 9.29 2.97 7.66 9.62 10.75 10.42 9.18
Source: ICE, NYMEX.
Prompt Month Oil Futures Prices
(monthly and weekly averages, $/bbl)
As for NYMEX WTI, with domestic supply tightening and stockpiles drawing down, the discount of prompt
month to second month WTI narrowed to -$0.59/bbl in May compared to -$1.16/bbl in April. On forward
curves, the WTI M1-M12 spread narrowed to -$2.81/bbl in May from -$4.36/bbl in April. By comparison,
the Brent M1-M12 contract spread held relatively steady at -$3.15 /bbl in May versus -$3.07/bbl in April.
-3.5
-2.5
-1.5
-0.5
0.5
1.5
2.5
Apr 14 Sep 14 Feb 15 Jul 15 Dec 15 May 16
$/bbl
Crude Futures
Front Month Spreads
WTI M1-M2 Brent M1-M2
Contango

So	ur	ce	: I	CE	, N	Y	ME	X
B	c	k	a	d	ti	o

-12.0
-8.0
-4.0
0.0
4.0
8.0
12.0
Apr 14 Sep 14 Feb 15 Jul 15 Dec 15 May 16
$/bbl Crude Futures
Forward Spreads
WTI M1-M12 Brent M1-M12

So	ur	ce:	ICE	,	N	YM	EX
B	a	ck	wa	rd	at	io	n
C	on	ta	ng	o

ICE Brent futures rose by $4.31/bbl, or about 10%, from April to an average $47.65/bbl during May.
NYMEX WTI gained $5.68/bbl to average $46.80/bbl, up roughly 14% from April.
Spot crude oil prices
Prolonged supply disruptions in Nigeria and Canada pushed up spot crude prices during May. The lengthy
and deepening outage of Nigerian supplies forced regular buyers in India, Indonesia and the US to look
elsewhere, keeping a lid on Nigerian differentials to Dated Brent. Shipments of Qua Iboe are due to return
to over 300 kb/d in July after force majeure was lifted on Nigeria’s biggest export stream (see Nigeria’s
plunge). Angolan barrels, particularly lighter grades such as Nemba and Girassol, have strengthened on
the back of the Nigerian disruption as well as a pick-up in demand from China. The flow of North Sea
barrels to Asia resumed, with cargoes of Forties reportedly on the move. Loadings of the four BFOE grades
– Brent, Forties, Oseberg and Ekofisk – are due to climb above 900 kb/d in July, a rise of nearly 20% on
June’s maintenance-reduced level.
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY – OIL MARKET REPORT PRICES
14 JUNE 2016 39
20
40
60
80
100
120
May 14 Sep 14 Jan 15May 15 Sep 15 Jan 16 May 16
$/bbl Benchmark Crude Prices
WTI Cushing N. Sea Dated Dubai

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-1
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May 14 Sep 14 Jan 15 May 15 Sep 15 Jan 16 May 16
$/bbl Crude Prices
Differentials to North Sea Dated
Bonny Light-North Sea
Saharan Blend-North Sea
Urals Med-North Sea

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The discount of Urals to Dated Brent in the Mediterranean firmed to around $1.50/bbl towards the end of
May after trading at around -$2/bbl earlier in the month as the Urals fights to hold onto market share in
Europe. Iran has moved swiftly to reclaim its European customers and Saudi Arabia and Iraq are also
targeting the continent. The discount of Iraqi Basra Light to Dated Brent narrowed, with June-loading
cargoes heading for the Mediterranean already placed. Saudi Aramco meanwhile lowered its monthly
formula prices for July loadings of crude oil destined for Europe.
Of the global benchmarks, WTI posted the strongest month-on-month (m-o-m) performance in May,
rising $5.76/bbl to $46.72/bbl as stockpiles were drawn down, Canadian outages persisted and domestic
supply tightened. The LLS/Brent differential has traded at over $1/bbl, which could lure imports during
the summer. North Sea Dated Brent climbed $5.31/bbl over April to average $46.79 /bbl for the month.
Middle East Dubai rose by a similar amount to average $44.30/bbl in May. Russian Urals gained $5.13 /bbl
m-o-m to average $44.30 /bbl in May.
– 6
– 4
– 2
0
2
Jan 15 May 15 Sep 15 Jan 16 May 16
$/bbl Saudi official selling prices
Arab Light, to ASCII (US) Arab Light to Bwave
Arab Light to Dubai (AS)
-15
-10
-5
5 0
10
May 14 Sep 14 Jan 15 May 15 Sep 15 Jan 16 May 16
$/bbl US Crudes vs. North Sea Dated
WTI – North Sea LLS – North Sea

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Dubai crude flipped from a contango of -$0.42/bbl during April to a $0.20/bbl backwardation in May – the
first time since August 2015 that prompt barrels traded at a premium to those farther out, reflecting
stronger demand from Asia. Saudi Aramco raised monthly formula prices to Asia, but kept them lower
than expected to stay competitive. The differentials on two of its benchmark grades – Arab Light and Arab
Medium – for July loading were raised by only $0.30-$0.35/bbl versus a steep increase the previous
month. Saudi prices to the US were strengthened for all grades except Arab Extra Light.
Wildfires in Canada took oil sands units offline in early May, cutting synthetic crude exports to the US and
leading refiners in the midcontinent to search for alternatives. The premium of WTS, which can be a
substitute, rose as a result as did the premium of pipeline Bakken crude versus WTI.
PRICES INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY – OIL MARKET REPORT
40 14 JUNE 2016
Spot product prices
Spot products followed crude prices higher in May, but while products in the middle and bottom of the
barrel posted double-digit rises in percentage terms, gains in light distillate prices were more moderate.
Crack spreads for all products remain significantly below year earlier with downward pressure coming
from steadily strengthening crude prices but also as supply for all products remains ample. Indeed, data
for the OECD and non-OECD Asia suggest that refined product inventories remain more than comfortable.
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
May 14Sep 14Jan 15May 15Sep 15Jan 16May 16
$/bbl Gasoline
Spot Prices

NWE Prem Unl	USGC 93 Conv
Med Prem Unl	SP Prem Unl

 

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20
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60 $/bbl

Gasoline Cracks to Benchmark Crudes

May 14 Sep 14 Jan 15 May 15 Sep 15 Jan 16 May 16

NWE Prem Unl	USGC 93 Conv
Med Prem Unl	SP Prem Unl

 

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Although spot gasoline prices rose in all surveyed markets in May, increases were muted compared to
those for middle distillates and fuel oil as supplies in all markets remained ample ahead of the summer
peak demand season. In Northwest Europe, further negative momentum came from lower exports to
Nigeria where the government hiked gasoline prices by 67% and the Naira remains exceptionally weak.
Nonetheless, some strength came from an open arbitrage to move product to the US Atlantic Coast, amid
low freight rates, and from localised supply tightness in the wake of French strikes. In the US Gulf, prices
fell early in May as the arbitrage opportunity to ship product by tanker to the Atlantic Coast closed,
although prices rebounded in mid-month as a number of regional gasoline producing units remained
offline. In Singapore, robust exports from Northeast Asia saw light distillates stocks remain close to record
levels. Following the muted spot prices rises which were outstripped by all benchmark crudes, gasoline
cracks declined across all surveyed regions on a monthly average basis and by end-May they stood below
year-ago levels.
Spot crude oil prices and differentials
Table Unavailable
Available in the subscription version.
To subscribe, visit: www.iea.org/oilmarketreport/subscription
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY – OIL MARKET REPORT PRICES
14 JUNE 2016 41
Naphtha markets remained weak in May with spot prices posting relatively subdued gains. Consequently,
considering the strength in crude markets, naphtha cracks retreated into negative territory across all
regions. In Europe, negative pressure came from lower gasoline blending and petrochemical demand and
from the closure of the arbitrage window to ship product to Asia. Naphtha demand in Asia is suffering as
multiple naphtha crackers remain under maintenance and as cheaper LPG continues to gain traction in
the petrochemical sector. Furthermore, these two factors forced Singapore naphtha cracks back into the
red during May and by early June they were at -$0.95/bbl, the lowest since September 2015.
-20
-15
-10
-5
5 0
10
15
May 14Sep 14 Jan 15May 15Sep 15 Jan 16May 16
$/bbl
Naphtha
Cracks to Benchmark Crudes
NWE SP Med ME Gulf

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20
25
May 14 Sep 14 Jan 15 May 15 Sep 15 Jan 16 May 16
$/bbl Diesel Fuel
Cracks to Benchmark Crudes

NWE ULSD Med ULSD

USGC ULSD SP Gasoil 0.05%

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Middle distillates prices fared better than light products and posted double-digit increases across all
markets. Northwest European diesel prices received a boost from lower US imports and from strikes in
France that reportedly affected about 200 kb/d of diesel output. This saw stocks draw in the ARA region
Spot product prices
Table Unavailable
Available in the subscription version.
To subscribe, visit: www.iea.org/oilmarketreport/subscription
PRICES INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY – OIL MARKET REPORT
42 14 JUNE 2016
as product moved southwards. In the Mediterranean, prices also firmed on a reported decrease in Turkish
diesel and kerosene exports following an unscheduled refinery outage. In Singapore, prices remained
relatively strong despite near-record Chinese gasoil exports and middle distillate inventories remaining
high. Reports suggest that demand from India, Sri Lanka and Vietnam helped to tighten fundamentals.
Although diesel cracks firmed across all surveyed markets on a monthly average basis, they remain
significantly below year-ago levels as bloated inventories weigh heavily.
Despite posting the steepest price increases across surveyed products on a percentage basis, fuel oil
markets remain very weak with HSFO cracks in Northwest Europe standing at-$17/bbl with those in the
Mediterranean slightly higher at -$11/bbl. Although much of this difference is due to the relative strength
of ICE Brent over Urals, prices in the Mediterranean received a boost from an uptick in demand for fuel oil
in the North African power generation sector, while prices in both regions benefitted from lower Russian
exports as refiners underwent heavy maintenance. Nonetheless, both Mediterranean and Northwest
European fuel oil markets received no boost from exports to Asia in May as the arbitrage to ship product
eastwards remained firmly shut as prices in Singapore increased at a slower clip than in Europe. Spot
prices in Singapore came under pressure from bloated on-land inventories, which touched a record level
during late-month. Additionally, a flotilla of VLCCs holding fuel oil remain moored in the vicinity of the
Malacca Straits, with some reports suggesting that these volumes are approaching 50 mb.
5 0
10
15
20
25
May 14 Sep 14 Jan 15 May 15 Sep 15 Jan 16 May 16
$/bbl
Jet/Kerosene
Cracks to Benchmark Crudes

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High-Sulphur Fuel Oil
Cracks to Benchmark Crudes
NWE HSFO 3.5% Med HSFO 3.5%
SP HSFO 380 4%

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Panama Canal expands: implications for global oil flows
The expanded Panama Canal is scheduled to open on 26 June, after almost nine years of construction and
with an official price tag of $5.25 billion, of which $800 million were financed by the Japan Bank for
International Cooperation, the biggest single lender of the project. Completion was originally due on the one
hundredth anniversary of the canal in October 2014. The delay was caused first by a contractual dispute
between the Panama Canal Authority and the consortium in charge of the construction, and, later, by water
leakage in the Pacific locks. Earlier this year, the opening was threatened by low water levels caused by El
Nino. On June 8, the restriction was been lifted and the opening is expected on time.
Table: Compatible carrier sizes before and after Canal expansion

Max dimensions (m)	Typical carrier* dimensions (m)
Current	2016 expansion	Aframax/ LR2	Suezmax	VLCC	(LPG) VLGC	LNG standard	Q(LNG) -Flex	Q(LNG) -Max
length	294.3	366	245	275	333	230	280	315	345
beam	32.2	49	42.8	48.5	60	36.6	42	50	55
draft	12	15.24	14.9	17	22	11.5	11.3	12	12
cargo	65 000 mt	130 000 mt
Source: IEA Research, EA Gibsons Ltd, Qatargas	Legend	Compatible after expansion	Compatible half-laden
* Built 2008 onwards	Non compat. after exp.	Unchanged

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY – OIL MARKET REPORT PRICES
14 JUNE 2016 43
Panama Canal expands: implications for global oil flows (continued)
Meet the Neo Panamax. The expanded width of the canal allows for transit of larger tanker classes, namely
Aframaxes, Long Range and Suezmaxes, the latter carrying 1 mb. The depth of the canal will not however
accommodate a full laden Suezmax, although the extent of the load would depend on the gravity of the
crude. According to shipbrokers Simpson, Spence and Young (SSY), a fully laden light oil or condensate
Suezmax should be allowed to pass, giving easier access to Far East markets to US condensate and naphtha
exports should exports pick up if supported by favourable economics.
Very large gas carriers (VLGCs), carrying LPG, and larger Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) vessels will also be able
to transit, with the exclusion of the larger Qatari sizes (Q Flex and Q Max).
Around the world: trade implications. In the short term, the impact on global oil flows appears limited. The
biggest impact will be on American flows, chiefly US product exports headed to Pacific Latin America and the
Far East. Larger clean product vessels (the Long Range class) will likely eat some share from smaller
westbound Medium Range tankers, although the extent will be defined by port infrastructure and – for the
US West Coast – by Jones Act restrictions. As an alternative to longer haul voyages from Europe to Asia, it will
have to compete with the Atlantic/Indian Ocean route, either via Suez or via the Cape of Good Hope.
Caribbean crudes. For Latin America crude exporters, the Canal will widen the alternatives, although the
typically low API of Caribbean crudes would make a Suezmax viable only if partially laden. An option would be
to partially unload cargoes into the 800 kb/d Trans Panama pipeline, and then re-load the crude onto ships on
the East Coast. However, the benefit of combining the canal and the pipeline, rather than simply using
TransPanama with two VLCCs appears rather uncertain, and will hinge on several factors, such as pipeline
usage, transit tariffs, traffic in the Canal, other than relative freight rates for different carrier sizes.
This map is without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name
of any territory, city or area.
Gas shipments: freight matters. The impact on gas carriers appears to be far more significant. The expansion
will allow very large gas carriers (VLGCs) and standard LNG carriers to transit. Propelled by the shale
revolution, US propane exports to China and Japan have skyrocketed, reaching as high as 500 kb/d in
February. However, even such routes where the canal would reduce the distance, currently depressed freight
rates make circumnavigating Cape Horn a cheaper alternative to paying the Canal transit fee, reportedly just
shy of $195k for a VLGC. The latest month pickup in Pacific bound volumes is rather due to term contracts
starting up, according to Argus Media reports.
PRICES INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY – OIL MARKET REPORT
44 14 JUNE 2016
Panama Canal expands: implications for global oil flows (continued)
All in all, the impact of the Panama expansion is likely to be – for the moment – limited on oil flows, at least in
the current low tanker rates environment. The impact on LPG flows will depend on freight economics and the
resilience of the US gas industry.
Freight
Freight rates were mixed in May. Very-large-crude-carriers (VLCCs) on the benchmark MEG-Asia route
seesawed throughout the month. A rush of fixing lifted rates to near $13/mt mid-month, but levels
retraced towards the end of the month as the loading programme was filled. By early June, activity picked
up. Rates for Suezmaxes on voyages from West Africa took a hit in May, as Nigerian outages sharply
reduced cargo inquiries and rates collapsed below the $10/mt mark – the weakest since September 2013.
Consequently, unemployed vessels reportedly ballasted to the Mediterranean and Black Sea, which
tightened tonnage and buttressed rates.
Aframaxes in the North Sea and Baltic had a slow start to the month, but were supported by strong
Russian loadings from Primorsk in mid-month (See ‘Supply – FSU Exports’). However, such support was
short-lived, as fundamentals weakened after Suezmaxes ex-West Africa moved to the Mediterranean.
5
10
15
20
25
30
Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16
$/t Daily Crude Tanker Rates

130Kt WAF – UKC Baltic Aframax

VLCC MEG-Asia North Sea Aframax

Copyright © 2016 Argus Media Ltd
0
10
20
30
40
50
Oct-14 Jan-15Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16
$/t Daily Product Tanker Rates
LR MEG – Japan MR Sing – JPN
MR Carib – US Atlantic MR UK-US Atlantic
Copyright © 2016 Argus Media Ltd
Rates for product tankers overall had a subdued month. Gasoline shipments from Europe to US East coast
remained strong and rates reacted accordingly, but abundant tonnage kept levels in check. No meaningful
increase in freight rates was registered on the backhaul US Gulf – UK Continent route, shipping gasoil
from the US Gulf to Europe. The rate remained firmly anchored around $16.5/mt levels, as French strikes
did not translate into a meaningful increase in fixtures, suggesting that abundant regional distillate stocks
mitigated the impact.
In the Far East, the MEG – Japan product rate remained weak overall despite strengthening in mid-May.
High distillate stocks put a lid on tanker inquiry, even as petrochemical demand for naphtha remains
reasonable in Japan, Korea and China.
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY – OIL MARKET REPORT REFINING
14 JUNE 2016 45
REFINING
Summary
• Refinery throughput growth in 2Q16 suffered from increased outages. Runs are almost flat year-onyear (y-o-y), as refiners seem finally catching up with maintenance postponed from last year
• The seasonal ramp-up to 3Q16 is expected to be the largest on record, surging by nearly 2.3 mb/d
quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q), up by 1.1 mb/d y-o-y, but in line with demand growth of 1.1 mb/d.
• Changes in crude output and refinery runs in China, Russia and Brazil affects their import
requirements and export availability, with substantial impact on crude flows.
Global refinery overview

Throughput numbers for March are not finalised for many non-OECD countries, but the available updates lowered the estimate for 1Q16 runs by about 200 kb/d. This changed the implied balances for oil products as global oil demand is estimated to have grown by 1.6 mb/d y-o-y and refinery runs by 1.3 mb/d. Preliminary April data for OECD and the top four global refiners, as well as the available May data (weekly data for US, Japan and Canada and monthly data for Russia), point to subdued refining activity in 2Q16. The background to the revisions is discussed below: it is generally the heavier outages

Refinery data heatmap

volume, including unplanned shutdowns, which lead to an almost flat y-o-y picture for 2Q16. With the
extension of the forecast horizon to September the first glimpse into the full 3Q16 picture suggests a
stronger than usual seasonal ramp-up from the second quarter by about 2.3 mb/d, (see Seasonality of
crude oil demand) and a gain of 1.1 mb/d y-o-y.
Global Refinery Crude Throughput1
(million barrels per day)
Feb 16 Mar 16 1Q2016 Apr 16 May 16 Jun 16 2Q2016 Jul 16 Aug 16 Sep 16 3Q2016
Americas 18.8 19.1 19.0 18.9 19.0 19.4 19.1 19.8 19.6 19.2 19.5
Europe 11.7 11.5 11.8 11.5 11.6 11.6 11.6 12.3 12.4 11.7 12.2
Asia Oceania 7.3 7.0 7.1 6.8 6.6 6.2 6.5 6.9 6.9 7.0 6.9
Total OECD 37.8 37.6 37.8 37.3 37.2 37.2 37.2 39.0 39.0 37.9 38.6
FSU 6.9 6.8 6.9 6.6 6.5 6.6 6.6 6.7 6.6 6.5 6.6
Non-OECD Europe 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
China 10.6 10.6 10.6 10.9 10.5 10.7 10.7 11.0 10.7 10.7 10.8
Other Asia 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.3 10.6 10.4 10.6 10.6 10.4 10.5
Latin America 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.5
Middle East 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 7.0 7.1 7.0 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3
Africa 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.2 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.3
Total Non-OECD 41.5 41.4 41.5 41.3 41.3 42.1 41.6 42.9 42.4 42.0 42.4
Total 79.3 79.0 79.3 78.6 78.4 79.4 78.8 81.9 81.3 79.9 81.1
1 Preliminary and estimated runs based on capacity, know n outages, economic runcuts and global demand forecast
Jan 16 Feb 16 Mar 16 Apr 16
OECD
FSU
Asia
Latin America
Middle East
Africa
World
Share of actual
data in World total
93% 90% 87% 74%

REFINING INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY – OIL MARKET REPORT
46 14 JUNE 2016
Seasonality of crude oil demand
Continuing the exploration of trends in seasonality in oil consumption, this time we look at crude oil demand.
There are reasons why refinery throughput does not always follow the seasonal headline oil demand pattern.
Refineries have to undergo periodic maintenance, the majority of which is scheduled for spring or autumn for
various operational or logistical reasons.
As discussed in the March Report, global oil demand is ramping up in the second quarter, rather than
declining as it used to. Interestingly, refinery throughputs have displayed the opposite trend, swinging from
mainly growing to mainly declining, , judging from the available history of seasonal runs. Zooming in the two
hemispheric crude trading regions – East of Suez and the Atlantic basin, it becomes clear that the global 2Q
decline pattern is driven by East of Suez refiners, both in OECD (Japan and Korea) and non-OECD countries,
usually running at lower rates in 2Q compared to 1Q. In 2015, refinery ramp-ups in China and the Middle East
more than offset traditional declines into 2Q, and, rather than counterbalancing Atlantic basin growth, added
to it. This year, both scheduled and unscheduled outages weigh on refinery intake and set the seasonal
change back into negative territory in 2Q16. However, it is not only refinery runs that define the demand for
crude oil. Adding in Saudi crude burn volumes (with a large seasonal increase in 2Q), slows the decline in the
global demand for crude oil coming from lower refining intake (combined with East of Suez refining intake in
the following charts).
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
mb/d Changes from 1Q to 2Q
Demand Refining Refining plus crude burn
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
mb/d Changes in crude demand, 1Q to 2Q
West of Suez East of Suez Total
The change from 2Q to 3Q is a much more straightforward growth trend as refiners worldwide maximise runs
to meet peak summer driving demand, but also build stocks before the autumn turnaround season, preChristmas seasonal freight demand and, in some regions, consumer stocking for the winter heating season.
Further seasonal increases in crude burn add to the global demand for crude oil. This year, the ramp-up to 3Q
is especially robust, with runs expected to increase by over 2 mb/d, with West of Suez demand slightly
dominating. This coincides with supply disruptions from Canadian wildfires, Brazilian outages and Nigerian
force majeure, on top of declining US output. Given that refineries, especially in Asia, typically secure crude
contracts two months ahead, the recent crude price increase could well be partly explained by this seasonal
tightness with increased refinery appetite for 3Q and lower availability in the Atlantic basin, which remains
the centre of global crude pricing.
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
mb/d Changes from 2Q to 3Q
Demand Refining Refining plus crude burn
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
mb/d Changes in crude demand, 2Q to 3Q
West of Suez East of Suez Total
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY – OIL MARKET REPORT REFINING
14 JUNE 2016 47
Margins
Although in many regions May margins came in lower than April’s on a monthly average basis, by the end
of the month and into early June they had rebounded from the lower levels seen earlier in the month,
despite the $5bbl increase in crude prices. In Europe, this was driven by French strikes; in North America,
by heavy maintenance in the US and feedstock-related outages in Canada. In Singapore, the crude oil
buying pressure from Chinese independent refiners remained high, although this is likely to ease as the
region moves into maintenance season.
IEA/KBC Global Indicator Refining Margins1
($/bbl)

Monthly Average	Change May 16-Apr 16	Average for week ending:	Feb 16	Mar 16	13 May	10 Jun
Apr 16	May 16	20 May	27 May	03 Jun

NW Europe

Brent (Cracking) Urals (Cracking) Brent (Hydroskimming) Urals (Hydroskimming)

3.66 5.15 -0.76 -0.11

2.80 4.24 -2.05 -1.47

4.37 5.48 -1.40 -1.24

4.05 5.28 -1.45 -1.14

   

-0.32 -0.20 -0.05 0.09

3.43 4.67 -1.73 -1.35

3.49 4.87 -2.11 -1.64

4.78 5.87 -1.03 -1.00

5.54 6.57 -0.14 -0.07

4.46 5.42 -0.85 -0.85

Mediterranean

Es Sider (Cracking) Urals (Cracking) Es Sider (Hydroskimming) Urals (Hydroskimming)

5.49 5.35 1.69 0.49

4.31 4.34 -0.24 -1.38

5.66 4.95 1.01 -0.99

5.66 5.38 1.02 -0.58

   

0.00 0.43 0.01 0.40

4.97 4.82 0.62 -0.71

5.32 5.20 0.57 -0.96

6.26 5.92 1.41 -0.45

6.86 6.40 1.99 0.20

6.02 5.60 1.34 -0.38

US Gulf Coast

50/50 HLS/LLS (Cracking) Mars (Cracking) ASCI (Cracking) 50/50 HLS/LLS (Coking) 50/50 Maya/Mars (Coking) ASCI (Coking)

3.93 3.13 2.89 5.77 8.11 8.32

5.02 3.78 3.33 7.37 10.58 9.81

7.65 5.41 5.00 10.19 12.53 11.83

6.64 4.30 3.79 9.11 10.75 10.50

     

-1.01 -1.11 -1.21 -1.07 -1.78 -1.33

5.65 3.88 3.35 8.02 9.93 9.57

6.98 4.34 3.83 9.45 10.93 10.71

7.84 4.96 4.48 10.44 11.68 11.61

8.08 5.19 4.64 10.66 11.44 11.70

6.51 3.84 3.33 8.86 9.56 9.95

US Midcon

WTI (Cracking) 30/70 WCS/Bakken (Cracking) Bakken (Cracking) WTI (Coking) 30/70 WCS/Bakken (Coking) Bakken (Coking)

4.15 2.39 3.14 5.91 5.76 3.91

9.19 6.99 9.01 11.73 11.39 10.18

12.05 10.26 12.72 14.85 14.96 14.01

12.95 10.48 13.44 15.84 15.24 14.76

     

0.90 0.22 0.72 0.99 0.28 0.74

12.34 10.14 12.76 15.16 14.69 14.05

13.93 10.83 13.88 16.85 15.73 15.22

13.91 10.90 14.28 16.91 15.89 15.65

14.65 11.58 14.71 17.68 16.60 16.09

17.81 14.54 17.98 21.00 19.69 19.45

Singapore

Dubai (Hydroskimming) Tapis (Hydroskimming) Dubai (Hydrocracking) Tapis (Hydrocracking)

0.93 1.51 5.52 5.16

-0.16 0.89 5.16 5.26

-1.51 0.27 3.90 4.51

-1.83 0.96 3.72 5.18

   

-0.32 0.69 -0.17 0.67

-1.99 1.09 3.24 5.11

-2.04 0.62 3.67 4.93

-1.45 1.02 4.52 5.48

-1.95 1.71 3.98 6.03

-2.21 0.91 3.42 4.92

1 Global Indicator Refining Margins are calculated for various complexity configurations, each optimised for processing the specific crude(s) in a specific refining centre. Margins include
energy cost, but exclude other variable costs, depreciation and amortisation. Consequently, reported margins should be taken as an indication, or proxy, of changes in profitability for a
given refining centre. No attempt is made to model or otherwise comment upon the relative economics of specific refineries running individual crude slates and producing custom product
sales, nor are these calculations intended to infer the marginal values of crude for pricing purposes.
Source: IEA, KBC Advanced Technologies (KBC)
Partly thanks to strikes in France that affected refining activity, and the summer ramp-up in middle
distillates demand (see April Report), European diesel cracks finally crossed the $10/bbl threshold for the
first time since November 2015. French product demand is heavily skewed towards diesel, which
accounts for almost 60% of the demand barrel, or about 960 kb/d. France normally imports about
400 kb/d of diesel, but higher imports during the refinery disruption were complicated by strikes affecting
a number of ports and terminals. Interestingly, a few months ago Total made headlines by chartering a
VLCC on a maiden voyage to ship diesel from Asia to Europe. The arrival of the 2 mb cargo, the largest
ever for any clean product, was expected to put further pressure on diesel cracks, already in single digits.
However, when the vessel arrived at Rotterdam at the end of May the markets had tightened.
REFINING INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY – OIL MARKET REPORT
48 14 JUNE 2016
OECD refinery throughput
North American throughput data for March was finalised with no visible change. Preliminary April
numbers confirmed the first y-o-y drop for the US in three years, of 220 kb/d. Judging by the volume of
outages, US refiners finally slowed down for maintenance, having run almost flat out for most of the past
year. Unscheduled shutdowns, partly a sign of overstretched capacity, added to the planned closures.
Preliminary data for May showed a flat y-o-y picture, and in June runs are forecast to be at best flat y-o-y,
possibly with a small decline. This brings about the first quarterly y-o-y decline in four years: runs in 3Q16
will be flat y-o-y, but with a seasonal 260 kb/d increase from the second quarter.
Refinery Crude Throughput and Utilisation in OECD Countries
(million barrels per day)
Change from Utilisation rate1
Nov 15 Dec 15 Jan 16 Feb 16 Mar 16 Apr 16 Mar 16 Apr 15 Apr 16 Apr 15
US2 16.49 16.77 15.99 15.88 16.11 16.08 -0.03 -0.22 0.88 0.92
Canada 1.59 1.66 1.76 1.68 1.74 1.66 -0.08 0.05 0.84 0.81
Chile 0.14 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.16 0.00 0.02 0.72 0.65
Mexico 1.05 1.12 1.11 1.04 1.09 1.05 -0.04 -0.02 0.63 0.64
OECD Americas3 19.27 19.72 19.04 18.77 19.10 18.94 -0.16 -0.17 0.86 0.88
France 1.18 1.09 1.15 1.17 1.12 1.20 0.08 0.01 0.86 0.85
Germany 1.89 1.94 1.92 1.91 1.91 1.77 -0.13 -0.11 0.88 0.93
Italy 1.40 1.38 1.30 1.14 1.20 1.35 0.15 0.05 0.77 0.74
Netherlands 0.96 1.10 1.11 1.08 1.04 1.08 0.04 0.07 0.83 0.78
Spain 1.21 1.34 1.22 1.26 1.27 1.25 -0.03 -0.11 0.82 0.90
United Kingdom 1.18 1.17 1.14 1.00 0.94 1.12 0.18 0.00 0.81 0.81
Other OECD Europe 4.33 4.24 4.17 4.17 4.01 3.77 -0.24 -0.21 0.78 0.82
OECD Europe 12.15 12.27 12.02 11.74 11.50 11.53 0.03 -0.30 0.81 0.83
Japan 3.11 3.25 3.37 3.31 3.31 3.22 -0.09 -0.03 0.91 0.84
South Korea 2.73 2.98 2.97 3.14 2.89 2.85 -0.04 0.22 0.87 0.80
Other Asia Oceania 0.75 0.79 0.78 0.80 0.78 0.76 -0.02 -0.09 0.77 0.86
OECD Asia Oceania 6.60 7.02 7.12 7.26 6.98 6.84 -0.15 0.10 0.87 0.82
OECD Total 38.02 39.00 38.18 37.77 37.57 37.31 -0.27 -0.37 0.85 0.86
1 Expressed as a percentage, based on crude throughput and current operable refining capacity
2 US50
3 OECD Americas includes Chile and OECD Asia Oceania includes Israel. OECD Europe includes Slovenia and Estonia, though neither country has a refinery
Canadian April throughput was in line with our initial
estimate, but May weekly numbers indicate a sharp
m-o-m drop, putting the monthly volume at its lowest
in more than a decade at just under 1.4 mb/d (See
Canadian refining – feeling the heat). This could
largely be due to reduced crude supply. Runs are
expected to recover as lost crude output comes back
online.
Mexican throughput in April stayed flat y-o-y, with the outlook also tentatively flat y-o-y. As part of its oil
industry liberalisation programme the Mexican government has removed Pemex’s monopoly on product
imports, reportedly allocating some 1.25 mb/d of gasoline imports licences to international and local
16.5
17.0
17.5
18.0
18.5
19.0
19.5

20.0 mb/d

OECD Americas Crude Throughput

Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan

Range 10-14 2014	Average 10-14 2015
2016	2016 est

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY – OIL MARKET REPORT REFINING
14 JUNE 2016 49
trading firms. This is triple the 430 kb/d of imports in 2015. However, retail market liberalisation and
infrastructure access is still a work in progress. A surge in imports could put local refineries in head-tohead competition with the US Gulf Coast refiners, thus threatening their position even more while
domestic demand is growing.
Canadian refining – feeling the heat?
Imperial Oil’s Strathcona refinery in Alberta was in scheduled maintenance since late April. In May an outage
at Suncor’s refinery, located in the same area, was also reported, for which the company later blamed the
feedstock shortage due to the wildfires. May weekly data show total refinery output in Western Canada at
just above half of normal rates, explaining the reported fuel shortages across the region. At the same time,
refining volumes are sharply down in Ontario too, with refiners operating only at two thirds of their normal
rate. Two Ontario refineries were reported out of action since end-April: Shell’s Corunna plant had a benzene
leak, and Imperial Oil’s Sarnia refinery had its main boiler taken offline. Neither refinery, however, reported
full or partial shutdown for repairs in that month. The drop in the throughput could well be located upstream,
as Ontario is fully dependent on crude supplies from Western Canada. Refineries in these two regions
collectively lost over 350 kb/d of output m-o-m, or about a fifth of total Canadian throughput.
0.0
0.5
1.0
Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16
mb/d Refinery throughput, Jan 11 – May 16
Eastern + Quebec Western Canada
Ontario
Source: NEB
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
May 13 May 14 May 15 May 16
mb/d Crude arrivals to Eastern Canada
Source: APEX Quebec Atlantic
Refiners in Eastern Canada and Quebec, accounting for the bulk of the country’s product supply, continued
running normally. Eastern provinces depend on imported crudes, aside from a small volume of local
production. Earlier this year, Quebec more than doubled the receipts of western Canadian crudes with the
300 kb/d Line 9B reversal starting in earnest at the end of last year, reducing the need for overseas crude.
However, May actual and estimated June arrivals of seaborne crude to Quebec are now increased possibly
due to lower flows on Line 9B. Canadian refining throughput is expected to follow the recovery of Albertan oil
output. In the meantime, the product supply situation may remain tight as post-wildfire traffic and efforts to
return to normal will have increased local demand for transport fuels.
In Europe, for the UK, Netherlands and the Czech Republic March throughput was finalised at lower
numbers (between 30 kb/d and 55 kb/d), while April preliminary data revises our estimate downward by
250 kb/d, as more refineries went into shutdowns than previously assumed. Additional shutdowns for
May and lower French throughput due to labour strikes revised the 2Q runs estimate for Europe down by
280 kb/d. Four French refineries were running normally by the time of writing, while full restart was being
hindered at three of Total’s refineries. May and June runs in France are estimated close to 1 mb/d and
875 kb/d respectively, versus last six months average of 1.15 mb/d The more severe strikes in October
2010 ‘cost’ some 800 kb/d in refinery runs, and caused a 9 mb draw in government stocks of middle
distillates (equivalent to 10 days of consumption), while imports for that and subsequent months were
not much higher than the seasonal increase due to maintenance and winter stocking. On 25 May the
French transport minister announced in the media that the country had drawn from strategic stocks to
reduce fuel supply disruption. Concerns about fuels availability are especially high as France is hosting the
Euro 2016 football championship (see the back page of this Report). Once back online, refiners will need
to run at full capacity to provide for the seasonal July uptick in diesel demand as France takes to the roads
REFINING INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY – OIL MARKET REPORT
50 14 JUNE 2016
for the summer holidays. Still, Europe continues the y-o-y decline pattern in 3Q16, down by 230 kb/d, but
up by 560 kb/d from 2Q16.
April preliminary data for Korea came in higher than our
estimate, by 140 kb/d, due to lower scheduled
maintenance. Japan’s April data were not much
different from the estimate in the previous Report, but
weekly data for May indicate lower maintenance
shutdowns than assumed, and consequently, more
robust throughput. The trend of y-o-y gains in OECD
Asia continues from 1Q16, with the two countries
boosting runs by 100 kb/d in total in 2Q16. In 3Q16 it is
Korea that leads the region to a 200 kb/d y-o-y gain,
returning to operate at above 3 mb/d levels.
Non-OECD refinery throughput
Chinese runs in April were higher than estimated in our previous Report, by about 200 kb/d, marking a
new record level of 10.9 mb/d, up by 400 kb/d y-o-y. Petrochina and CNPC did not cut their runs as much
as they did earlier in the year, and independents maintained strong throughput gains. May runs are
estimated to have been lower by 345 kb/d m-o-m, due to maintenance shutdowns in Sinopec refineries.
Year-to-date, independent refiners have increased their runs by about 500 kb/d y-o-y, or about 20%,
while the two majors have decreased by 230 kb/d, or about 3%. In 2Q16 and 3Q16 runs in China are
expected to reach record quarterly levels of around 10.7-10.8 mb/d. At these run rates, and given lower
domestic crude output, Chinese import requirements of crude oil are expected to keep increasing y-o-y.
Year-to-date, refinery runs were up by about 300 kb/d, but crude output was also down by half that
amount. Of the average 1 mb/d crude import increase in y-o-y terms, 400 kb/d was processed, with the
rest going into storage. The crude import requirement in 3Q16 is expected to increase by almost 700 kb/d
y-o-y.
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
Jan 16 Mar 16 May 16
(est)
Jul 16 (F) Sep 16 (F)
mb/d Chinese crude runs y-o-y changes
Others Majors Total
-0.4
0.1
0.6
1.1
1.6
Jan 16 Mar 16 May 16* Jul 16 (F) Sep 16 (F)
mb/d China crude balance y-o-y changes
import requirement imports
*April-June 2015 import numbers are smoothed to remove spikes
April throughput in India, as expected, slipped some 100 kb/d from the record level in March, to
4.9 mb/d. May volumes are expected to continue to decline m-o-m due to maintenance at a unit at
Jamnagar, while operations at the Mangalore refinery were affected by water supply problems due the
drought. Overall, the 2Q16 y-o-y gains of 400 kb/d accelerate to 525 kb/d in 3Q16, when runs are forecast
to hold at 5 mb/d. Throughput in Thailand slipped y-o-y in February-March by 50 kb/d on average, and a
prolonged shutdown is expected to similarly weigh on 2Q16 runs, down 30 kb/d y-o-y. In 3Q16, runs will
inch up to a flat y-o-y level of 1.26 mb/d. In Chinese Taipei, despite the permanent shutdown of the
Kaohsiung refinery last year, 1Q16 runs were 60 kb/d higher y-o-y, at 860 kb/d. In 2Q16 runs are
estimated to have flipped into a decline by a similar amount, while 3Q16 will again see higher y-o-y
processing volumes.
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0

7.5 mb/d

OECD Asia Oceania Crude Throughput

Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan

Range 10-14 2014	Average 10-14 2015 est.
2015	2016 est

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY – OIL MARKET REPORT REFINING
14 JUNE 2016 51
As expected, Saudi Arabia’s throughput in March came down from the record levels seen in February, still
up 660 kb/d y-o-y to almost 2.6 mb/d. In 2Q16 and 3Q16 growth rates are expected to slow to 400 kb/d
and 350 kb/d respectively as the ramp-up effect wanes. The latest actual data for Iran’s crude throughput
is for January, for which runs are estimated to have risen by 60 kb/d y-o-y and are expected to grow
during 2016. Kuwaiti runs were down in March due to planned maintenance, and 2Q16 will bear the
effect of April’s brief strike and maintenance work. In 3Q16 runs are also expected to be slightly lower yo-y. Iraq has been the underperformer in the region, with runs down by 30 kb/d in the first quarter, and
the declines accelerating into 2Q16 (70 kb/d and in 3Q16 to 90 kb/d. In Egypt, refiners are trying to catch
up with demand growth as runs were up in 1Q16 to record seasonal levels of 560 kb/d, and are expected
to continue growing into 2Q and 3Q16.
Russian refinery runs did not pick up in May as expected, with preliminary data coming in at 150 kb/d
below our expectations, and down 370 kb/d y-o-y. Declines in 3Q16 are expected to accelerate to
430 kb/d on average. Kazakhstan’s April data was surprisingly robust, up 100 kb/d, or by half versus
previous months. Kazakh refiners, in a major crude oil exporter country, have mostly downstream
constraints on utilisation rates, as unsold product inventories, especially the heavy fuels, tend to limit
operating levels. The stocks clearance allows them to boost the runs in individual months.
-0.8
-0.4
0.0
0.4
0.8
Jan 16 Mar 16 May 16 (F) Jul 16 (F) Sep 16 (F)
mb/d Russian crude y-o-y changes
Crude output Refining Export availability
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
Jan 16 Mar 16 May 16 (F) Jul 16 (F) Sep 16 (F)
mb/d Brazil crude y-o-y changes
Crude output Refining Export availability
Latest Brazil actuals (April) again come below our estimate, by about 200 kb/d to 1.9 mb/d, which is
85 kb/d lower y-o-y. While in 2013-2015 the throughput was usually at or above 2 mb/d, it has not
reached that level since September 2015. Sluggish demand and higher biofuels use explain the
unwillingness of Petrobras to continue running at full capacity levels. Year-to-date throughput is down
45 kb/d y-o-y. The recent declines in crude output, at an average 115 kb/d for Jan-April, mean that crude
exports would have to be cut even further if refineries were to run at historically high utilisation rates.
Brazil is too far from major trading hubs to become a steady product exporter. In 2Q16 and 3Q16 runs are
expected to be lower than last year, although 3Q16 runs will manage to cross the 2 mb/d level again.
TABLES INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY – OIL MARKET REPORT
52 14 JUNE 2016
TABLES
Table 1: World Oil Supply And Demand
2013 2014 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 2015 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 2016 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 2017
OECD DEMAND
Americas 24.1 24.1 24.2 24.1 24.7 24.4 24.4 24.4 24.4 24.8 24.5 24.5 24.4 24.5 24.9 24.7 24.6
Europe 13.6 13.5 13.4 13.6 14.1 13.7 13.7 13.6 13.7 13.9 13.6 13.7 13.5 13.8 14.0 13.5 13.7
Asia Oceania 8.3 8.1 8.8 7.7 7.8 8.3 8.1 8.6 7.7 7.8 8.3 8.1 8.6 7.6 7.8 8.2 8.1

Total OECD	46.0 45.7	46.4 45.3 46.7 46.3 46.2	46.6 45.8 46.5 46.3 46.3	46.6 45.9 46.7 46.4 46.4
NON-OECD DEMAND FSU Europe	4.7 0.7	4.9 0.7	5.0 0.7	4.9 0.7	5.0 0.7	5.0 0.7	5.1 0.7	5.0 0.7
4.6 0.7	4.9 0.7	5.1 0.7	4.9 0.7	4.9 0.7	5.0 0.7	4.8 0.7	5.0 0.7	5.1 0.7
China Other Asia	10.4 10.7 11.7 12.0	11.2 11.5 11.5 11.6 11.4 12.3 12.5 12.3 12.8 12.5	11.5 11.6 11.8 12.0 11.7 13.0 13.2 12.9 13.4 13.1	11.8 12.1 12.1 12.2 12.0 13.7 13.7 13.4 13.9 13.7
Americas Middle East Africa	6.6 7.9 3.9	6.8 8.0 4.0	6.6 7.6 4.1	6.8 8.3 4.1	6.9 8.6 4.0	6.8 8.1 4.2	6.8 8.2 4.1	6.5 7.8 4.2	6.7 8.2 4.3	6.9 8.7 4.2	6.8 8.3 4.3	6.7 8.2 4.3	6.5 8.0 4.4	6.7 8.4 4.4	6.9 8.8 4.3	6.8 8.4 4.4	6.7 8.4 4.4

 

Total Non-OECD Total Demand1

45.9 47.2 91.9 92.9

47.2 48.8 49.0 49.2 48.6 93.6 94.1 95.7 95.5 94.7

48.6 49.7 50.2 50.5 49.7 95.2 95.5 96.7 96.9 96.1

49.9 51.0 51.4 51.6 51.0 96.5 96.8 98.0 98.0 97.4

OECD SUPPLY
Americas4 17.2 19.1 20.0 19.6 20.1 20.1 19.9 19.9 18.9 19.3 19.5 19.4 19.6 19.4 19.5 19.6 19.5
Europe 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.4 3.6 3.5 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.4 3.3
Asia Oceania 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4

Total OECD	21.0 22.9	23.8 23.5 23.9 24.2 23.9	23.9 22.7 22.9 23.3 23.2	23.4 23.1 23.1 23.4 23.3
NON-OECD SUPPLY FSU
13.9 13.9	14.0 14.0 13.9 14.1 14.0	14.2 14.0 13.9 14.0 14.0	14.0 14.0 13.9 14.1 14.0
Europe China Other Asia2 Americas2,4 Middle East Africa2	0.1 4.2 2.6 4.2 1.4 2.2	0.1 4.2 2.6 4.4 1.4 2.2	0.1 4.3 2.8 4.6 1.3 2.3	0.1 4.4 2.7 4.6 1.3 2.2	0.1 4.3 2.7 4.6 1.3 2.2	0.1 4.3 2.7 4.6 1.3 2.2	0.1 4.3 2.7 4.6 1.3 2.2	0.1 4.2 2.8 4.4 1.3 2.2	0.1 4.1 2.7 4.4 1.2 2.1	0.1 4.1 2.7 4.6 1.2 2.2	0.1 4.1 2.7 4.6 1.2 2.2	0.1 4.1 2.7 4.5 1.2 2.2	0.1 4.0 2.7 4.6 1.2 2.3	0.1 4.0 2.7 4.7 1.2 2.3	0.1 4.0 2.7 4.7 1.2 2.3	0.1 4.0 2.7 4.7 1.2 2.3	0.1 4.0 2.7 4.7 1.2 2.3

 

Total Non-OECD Processing gains3 Global Biofuels	28.6 28.9	29.5 29.3 29.1 29.3 29.3	29.1 28.7 28.8 29.0 28.9	29.0 29.0 28.9 29.1 29.0
2.2 2.0	2.2 2.2	2.2 1.8	2.2 2.4	2.2 2.6	2.2 2.3	2.2 2.3	2.3 1.9	2.3 2.5	2.3 2.7	2.3 2.4	2.3 2.4	2.3 2.0	2.3 2.5	2.3 2.9	2.3 2.5	2.3 2.5

Total Non-OPEC Supply2 53.8 56.3 57.3 57.4 57.8 58.0 57.6 57.2 56.2 56.7 56.9 56.8 56.6 56.9 57.2 57.2 57.0
OPEC
Crude 31.2 31.0 31.2 32.2 32.4 32.4 32.1 32.6
NGLs 6.3 6.5 6.6 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.8 6.8 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 7.0 7.0 7.1 7.0
Total OPEC2 37.5 37.5 37.7 38.9 39.1 39.1 38.7 39.3
Total Supply4 91.3 93.7 95.1 96.3 97.0 97.2 96.4 96.5
STOCK CHANGES AND MISCELLANEOUS
Reported OECD

Industry Government

-0.2 0.0

0.4 0.0

0.8 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.8 0.4
0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1
Total -0.2 0.4 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.8 0.5
Floating storage/Oil in transit 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.4 -0.2 0.5 0.3 0.2
Miscellaneous to balance5 -0.5 0.5 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.7
Total Stock Ch. & Misc -0.6 0.9 1.5 2.1 1.3 1.7 1.6 1.3 0.3
Memo items:
Call on OPEC crude + Stock ch.6 31.8 30.1 29.7 30.1 31.2 30.7 30.4 31.2 32.4 33.1 33.0 32.5 32.9 33.0 33.8 33.7 33.4
1 Measured as deliveries from refineries and primary stocks, comprises inland deliveries, international marine bunkers, refinery fuel, crude for direct burning,
oil from non-conventional sources and other sources of supply.
2 Other Asia excludes Indonesia throughout. Latin America excludes Ecuador throughout. Africa excludes Angola throughout.
Total Non-OPEC excludes all countries that were members of OPEC at 1 January 2016.
Total OPEC comprises all countries which were OPEC members at 1 January 2016.
3 Net volumetric gains and losses in the refining process and marine transportation losses.
4 Comprises crude oil, condensates, NGLs, oil from non-conventional sources and other sources of supply.
5 Includes changes in non-reported stocks in OECD and non-OECD areas.
6 Equals the arithmetic difference between total demand minus total non-OPEC supply minus OPEC NGLs.
Table 1
WORLD OIL SUPPLY AND DEMAND
(million barrels per day)
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY – OIL MARKET REPORT TABLES
14 JUNE 2016 53
Table 1a: World Oil Supply And Demand: Changes From Last Month’s Table
1
2013 2014 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 2015 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 2016 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 2017
OECD DEMAND

Americas

–

–

–

–

–

–

–

0.2

0.1

–

-0.1

0.1

Europe

–

–

–

–

–

–

–

0.1

–

–

–

–

Asia Oceania

–

–

–

–

–

–

–

–

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.1

Total OECD – – – – – – – 0.4 0.3 0.1 – 0.2
NON-OECD DEMAND
FSU – – – – – – – – – – – –
Europe – – – – – – – – – – – –
China – – – – – 0.1 – -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 –
Other Asia – – – – – – – -0.1 – – – –
Americas – – – – – – – – – – – –
Middle East – – – – – – – – – – – –
Africa – – – – – – – – – – – –
Total Non-OECD – – – – – – – -0.2 -0.1 – – -0.1
Total Demand – – – – – – – 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1
OECD SUPPLY
Americas – – – – – – – 0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.1 –
Europe – – – – – – – – – -0.1 – –
Asia Oceania – – – – – – – – – – – –
Total OECD – – – – – – – 0.1 -0.3 – 0.1 –
NON-OECD SUPPLY
FSU – – – – – – – – – – – –
Europe – – – – – – – – – – – –
China – – – – – – – – -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1
Other Asia – – – – – – – – – – – –
Americas – – – – – – – – -0.1 – – –
Middle East 0.1 – 0.1 – – – – – – – – –
Africa -0.1 – – – – – – – – – – –
Total Non-OECD – – – – – – – – -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1
Processing gains – – – – – – – – – – – –
Global Biofuels – – – – – – – – 0.1 – – –
Total Non-OPEC Supply – – – – – – – 0.1 -0.3 -0.1 – -0.1
OPEC
Crude – – – – – – – –
NGLs – – – – – – – – – – – –
Total OPEC – – – – – – – –
Total Supply – – – – – -0.1 – 0.1
STOCK CHANGES AND MISCELLANEOUS
REPORTED OECD

Industry	–
Government	–

– – – – – – 0.1
– – – – – – –
Total – – – – – – – 0.1
Floating storage/Oil in transit – – – – – – – –
Miscellaneous to balance – – – – – -0.1 – -0.2
Total Stock Ch. & Misc – – – – – -0.1 – -0.1
Memo items:
Call on OPEC crude + Stock ch. – – – – – 0.1 – 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.2
When submitting their monthly oil statistics, OECD Member countries periodically update data for prior periods. Similar updates to non-OECD data can occur.
Table 1a
WORLD OIL SUPPLY AND DEMAND: CHANGES FROM LAST MONTH’S TABLE 1
(million barrels per day)
TABLES INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY – OIL MARKET REPORT
54 14 JUNE 2016

Table 2: Summary of Global Oil Demand 2014 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 2015 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16	2016	1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17	2017
Demand (mb/d) Americas
24.14 13.45 8.13 45.72 22.76 8.03 6.80 4.92 3.97 0.67 47.16 92.88	24.24 24.09 24.73 24.37 24.36	24.37 24.39 24.76 24.51 24.51	24.44 24.47 24.87 24.67 24.62
Europe Asia Oceania	13.44 8.75	13.56 7.65	14.14 7.79	13.69 8.25	13.71 8.11	13.62 8.62	13.69 7.74	13.94 7.84	13.56 8.27	13.70 8.12	13.50 8.65	13.77 7.62	13.99 7.81	13.51 8.24	13.69 8.08
Total OECD Asia	46.44 45.30 46.66 46.32 46.18 23.55 24.02 23.79 24.39 23.94	46.61 45.81 46.53 46.34 46.32 24.50 24.80 24.74 25.37 24.86	46.60 45.87 46.67 46.42 46.39 25.50 25.79 25.54 26.10 25.73
Middle East Americas FSU Africa Europe Total Non-OECD World	7.63 6.62 4.58 4.12 0.68	8.34 6.76 4.89 4.11 0.69	8.60 6.85 5.05 4.03 0.71	8.12 6.79 4.98 4.19 0.71	8.18 6.76 4.88 4.11 0.70	7.76 6.50 4.86 4.24 0.70	8.22 6.72 4.93 4.27 0.71	8.66 6.87 5.05 4.18 0.72	8.29 6.84 4.98 4.33 0.72	8.23 6.73 4.96 4.25 0.71	7.98 6.53 4.85 4.36 0.71	8.36 6.72 4.96 4.41 0.73	8.81 6.88 5.12 4.30 0.73	8.42 6.85 5.06 4.45 0.74	8.40 6.75 5.00 4.38 0.73
47.18 48.83 49.02 49.18 48.56 93.62 94.13 95.68 95.50 94.74	48.56 49.66 50.22 50.53 49.74 95.17 95.48 96.75 96.87 96.07	49.93 50.96 51.37 51.62 50.98 96.53 96.83 98.04 98.04 97.36

of which: US50 19.11 19.29 19.25 19.68 19.36 19.40 19.45 19.62 19.82 19.55 19.61 19.56 19.66 19.94 19.79 19.74

Europe 5* China	8.00 10.75
Japan	4.35
India	3.76
Russia	3.66
Brazil	3.22
Saudi Arabia	3.14
Canada	2.40
Korea	2.34
Mexico	2.01
Iran	1.90
Total % of World	64.63 69.6%
Annual Change (% per annum)
Americas	0.3
Europe	-1.2
Asia Oceania	-2.5
Total OECD	-0.7
Asia	3.0
Middle East	1.5
Americas	2.6
FSU	4.4
Africa	2.1
Europe Total Non-OECD World	2.6 2.8 1.1

8.03 7.99 8.34 8.09 8.11 8.14 7.99 8.14 8.00 8.07 8.03 8.01 8.15 7.93 8.03
11.23 11.47 11.50 11.56 11.44 11.46 11.65 11.84 11.98 11.74 11.83 12.06 12.10 12.18 12.04
4.79 3.89 3.94 4.23 4.21 4.52 3.78 3.87 4.24 4.10 4.50 3.64 3.79 4.17 4.02
3.95 4.01 3.86 4.09 3.98 4.34 4.40 4.19 4.42 4.34 4.65 4.70 4.45 4.68 4.62
3.38 3.63 3.76 3.62 3.60 3.65 3.64 3.73 3.59 3.65 3.62 3.64 3.78 3.69 3.68
3.16 3.17 3.22 3.20 3.19 3.02 3.09 3.17 3.19 3.12 3.04 3.08 3.19 3.21 3.13
2.88 3.46 3.58 3.21 3.29 2.93 3.34 3.58 3.23 3.27 3.03 3.34 3.62 3.26 3.31
2.36 2.26 2.38 2.34 2.34 2.31 2.22 2.33 2.29 2.29 2.26 2.20 2.33 2.24 2.26
2.48 2.32 2.39 2.54 2.43 2.62 2.48 2.49 2.56 2.54 2.65 2.51 2.53 2.60 2.57
1.91 1.95 2.04 2.02 1.98 1.95 1.93 1.96 2.01 1.96 1.96 1.98 1.97 2.00 1.98
1.82 1.85 1.79 1.87 1.83 1.84 1.83 1.85 1.94 1.87 1.89 1.89 1.91 1.99 1.92
65.28 65.25 66.47 66.13 65.79 66.24 65.96 66.97 67.01 66.55 67.03 66.71 67.74 67.73 67.30
69.7% 69.3% 69.5% 69.2% 69.4% 69.6% 69.1% 69.2% 69.2% 69.3% 69.4% 68.9% 69.1% 69.1% 69.1%
1.5 1.6 1.5 -0.8 0.9 0.5 1.3 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.5
3.1 1.0 1.9 1.7 1.9 1.3 1.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.1 -0.9 0.6 0.3 -0.4 -0.1
-1.3 -0.3 1.4 -0.9 -0.3 -1.5 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.3 -1.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5
1.4 1.1 1.6 -0.1 1.0 0.4 1.1 -0.3 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1
4.1 5.3 6.7 4.6 5.2 4.1 3.2 4.0 4.0 3.8 4.1 4.0 3.2 2.9 3.5
-1.0 2.2 2.5 3.5 1.8 1.6 -1.4 0.7 2.1 0.7 2.9 1.6 1.8 1.6 2.0
0.4 -0.1 -1.2 -1.8 -0.7 -1.8 -0.7 0.2 0.7 -0.4 0.5 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2
-1.1 0.6 -1.8 -1.4 -1.0 6.1 0.8 -0.1 0.1 1.6 -0.2 0.5 1.4 1.6 0.8
2.8 2.5 3.7 5.3 3.6 2.7 3.8 3.9 3.2 3.4 3.0 3.3 2.7 2.8 3.0
4.1 3.4 2.5 4.2 3.5 3.9 2.7 1.1 1.3 2.2 0.5 2.5 1.3 3.1 1.8
2.1 3.3 3.6 2.9 3.0 2.9 1.7 2.4 2.7 2.4 2.8 2.6 2.3 2.2 2.5
1.8 2.2 2.6 1.4 2.0 1.7 1.4 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.3
Annual Change (mb/d)

Americas	0.07
Europe	-0.16
Asia Oceania	-0.21
Total OECD	-0.31
Asia	0.67
Middle East	0.12
Americas	0.17
FSU	0.21
Africa	0.08
Europe Total Non-OECD World	0.02 1.28 0.97

0.36 0.37 0.35 -0.19 0.22 0.13 0.30 0.03 0.13 0.15 0.08 0.08 0.12 0.17 0.11
0.41 0.13 0.27 0.22 0.26 0.18 0.13 -0.21 -0.14 -0.01 -0.12 0.08 0.05 -0.05 -0.01
-0.11 -0.02 0.11 -0.08 -0.03 -0.13 0.08 0.05 0.02 0.01 0.03 -0.11 -0.03 -0.04 -0.04
0.65 0.48 0.73 -0.04 0.45 0.18 0.51 -0.13 0.02 0.15 -0.01 0.05 0.14 0.08 0.06
0.93 1.21 1.49 1.08 1.18 0.96 0.78 0.96 0.98 0.92 1.00 0.99 0.80 0.73 0.88
-0.08 0.18 0.21 0.28 0.15 0.12 -0.12 0.06 0.17 0.06 0.22 0.13 0.15 0.13 0.16
0.03 -0.01 -0.08 -0.13 -0.05 -0.12 -0.04 0.01 0.05 -0.03 0.03 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01
-0.05 0.03 -0.09 -0.07 -0.05 0.28 0.04 0.00 0.01 0.08 -0.01 0.03 0.07 0.08 0.04
0.11 0.10 0.15 0.21 0.14 0.11 0.16 0.16 0.13 0.14 0.13 0.14 0.11 0.12 0.13
0.03 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.02 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.00 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.01
0.96 1.54 1.69 1.40 1.40 1.38 0.83 1.20 1.35 1.18 1.37 1.30 1.15 1.09 1.23
1.62 2.03 2.42 1.35 1.85 1.55 1.35 1.07 1.37 1.33 1.36 1.35 1.29 1.17 1.30
Revisions to Oil Demand from Last Month’s Report (mb/d)

Americas Europe Asia Oceania Total OECD Asia Middle East Americas FSU Africa Europe Total Non-OECD World

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01

0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01

0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01

0.00 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.01 0.02

0.00 0.16 0.12 -0.03 -0.05 0.05
0.01 0.15 0.01 0.00 0.03 0.05
0.00 0.05 0.19 0.08 0.06 0.09
0.01 0.35 0.33 0.05 0.04 0.19
0.00 -0.14 -0.13 0.03 0.04 -0.05
0.00 -0.02 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.02
0.00 -0.03 -0.01 -0.01 0.00 -0.01
0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.01
-0.01 -0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 -0.19 -0.15 0.03 0.04 -0.07
0.01 0.16 0.19 0.08 0.08 0.13
Revisions to Oil Demand Growth from Last Month’s Report (mb/d)
World 0.00 -0.03 0.03 0.05 -0.01 0.01 0.15 0.18 0.07 0.06 0.11
* France, Germany, Italy, Spain and UK
Table 2
SUMMARY OF GLOBAL OIL DEMAND
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY – OIL MARKET REPORT TABLES
14 JUNE 2016 55
Table 2a: OECD Regional Oil Demand
2014 2015 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 Jan 16 Feb 16 Mar 16 2 Feb 16 Mar 15
Americas
LPG and ethane 3.22 3.21 2.98 3.02 3.37 3.54 3.78 3.58 3.25 -0.33 0.05
Naphtha 0.35 0.34 0.31 0.33 0.36 0.35 0.37 0.34 0.35 0.00 0.02
Motor gasoline 10.64 10.88 10.97 11.16 10.90 10.84 10.41 10.94 11.17 0.23 0.45
Jet and kerosene 1.74 1.81 1.81 1.88 1.84 1.77 1.71 1.79 1.82 0.03 0.00
Gasoil/diesel oil 5.28 5.20 5.11 5.16 5.04 5.08 4.96 5.17 5.11 -0.06 -0.18
Residual fuel oil 0.58 0.55 0.44 0.63 0.62 0.58 0.58 0.44 0.71 0.27 0.17
Other products 2.32 2.37 2.47 2.56 2.25 2.21 2.15 2.33 2.16 -0.17 -0.08
Total 24.14 24.36 24.09 24.73 24.37 24.37 23.94 24.60 24.58 -0.02 0.43
Europe
LPG and ethane 1.08 1.15 1.14 1.11 1.13 1.23 1.25 1.28 1.15 -0.12 -0.08
Naphtha 1.17 1.17 1.14 1.12 1.15 1.29 1.29 1.30 1.28 -0.02 0.05
Motor gasoline 1.91 1.92 1.98 2.02 1.90 1.79 1.67 1.83 1.86 0.03 0.04
Jet and kerosene 1.27 1.32 1.34 1.49 1.25 1.24 1.18 1.27 1.27 0.00 0.06
Gasoil/diesel oil 5.94 6.18 5.95 6.30 6.32 6.14 5.71 6.36 6.38 0.02 0.25
Residual fuel oil 0.92 0.87 0.86 0.86 0.88 0.93 0.92 0.92 0.95 0.03 0.07
Other products 1.16 1.10 1.15 1.22 1.06 1.01 0.92 0.98 1.11 0.13 0.12
Total 13.45 13.71 13.56 14.14 13.69 13.62 12.95 13.95 14.00 0.05 0.50
Asia Oceania
LPG and ethane 0.85 0.79 0.73 0.75 0.78 0.85 0.77 0.91 0.87 -0.05 -0.01
Naphtha 1.88 1.97 1.88 1.95 2.00 2.00 2.06 2.11 1.84 -0.27 -0.13
Motor gasoline 1.55 1.56 1.52 1.62 1.57 1.52 1.47 1.55 1.56 0.01 0.02
Jet and kerosene 0.86 0.86 0.68 0.69 0.95 1.16 1.21 1.23 1.04 -0.18 0.07
Gasoil/diesel oil 1.77 1.81 1.76 1.76 1.88 1.87 1.74 1.93 1.93 0.00 0.06
Residual fuel oil 0.67 0.63 0.60 0.54 0.63 0.75 0.73 0.75 0.76 0.01 0.01
Other products 0.56 0.49 0.48 0.46 0.45 0.47 0.51 0.49 0.43 -0.07 -0.15
Total 8.13 8.11 7.65 7.79 8.25 8.62 8.49 8.97 8.42 -0.55 -0.12
OECD
LPG and ethane 5.15 5.15 4.85 4.89 5.27 5.61 5.81 5.77 5.27 -0.50 -0.03
Naphtha 3.40 3.47 3.34 3.40 3.50 3.64 3.72 3.76 3.47 -0.29 -0.06
Motor gasoline 14.10 14.36 14.46 14.80 14.37 14.15 13.55 14.32 14.59 0.27 0.50
Jet and kerosene 3.87 3.99 3.83 4.06 4.04 4.17 4.10 4.28 4.14 -0.15 0.13
Gasoil/diesel oil 12.99 13.20 12.82 13.22 13.24 13.09 12.41 13.46 13.42 -0.04 0.14
Residual fuel oil 2.17 2.05 1.90 2.03 2.13 2.25 2.23 2.11 2.41 0.30 0.25
Other products 4.04 3.96 4.10 4.24 3.76 3.69 3.57 3.81 3.70 -0.11 -0.11
Total 45.72 46.18 45.30 46.66 46.32 46.61 45.39 47.51 46.99 -0.52 0.82
1 Demand, measured as deliveries from refineries and primary stocks, comprises inland deliveries, international bunkers and refinery fuel. It includes crude for direct burning, oil from
non-conventional sources and other sources of supply. Jet/kerosene comprises jet kerosene and non-aviation kerosene. Gasoil comprises diesel, light heating oil and other gasoils.
North America comprises US 50 states, US territories, Mexico and Canada.
2 Latest official OECD submissions (MOS).
Latest month vs.
Table 2a
OECD REGIONAL OIL DEMAND1
(million barrels per day)
TABLES INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY – OIL MARKET REPORT
56 14 JUNE 2016
Table 2b: Oil Demand in Selected OECD Countries
2014 2015 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 Jan 16 Feb 16 Mar 16 2 Feb 16 Mar 15
United States3
LPG and ethane 2.40 2.37 2.18 2.20 2.50 2.69 2.90 2.72 2.44 -0.28 0.09
Naphtha 0.23 0.22 0.20 0.22 0.24 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.21 -0.01 0.01
Motor gasoline 8.92 9.16 9.26 9.39 9.17 9.09 8.67 9.21 9.40 0.19 0.35
Jet and kerosene 1.48 1.55 1.55 1.59 1.58 1.51 1.45 1.53 1.55 0.02 0.00
Gasoil/diesel oil 4.04 3.98 3.88 3.93 3.83 3.90 3.82 3.96 3.94 -0.02 -0.11
Residual fuel oil 0.26 0.26 0.19 0.31 0.30 0.31 0.34 0.20 0.40 0.20 0.14
Other products 1.78 1.86 1.99 2.04 1.74 1.72 1.66 1.85 1.68 -0.17 -0.08
Total 19.11 19.40 19.25 19.68 19.36 19.45 19.06 19.68 19.62 -0.06 0.38
Japan
LPG and ethane 0.50 0.45 0.42 0.41 0.42 0.49 0.43 0.54 0.49 -0.05 -0.06
Naphtha 0.75 0.80 0.75 0.79 0.81 0.81 0.86 0.79 0.76 -0.03 -0.04
Motor gasoline 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.97 0.92 0.87 0.84 0.88 0.91 0.03 0.01
Jet and kerosene 0.52 0.50 0.35 0.35 0.57 0.74 0.77 0.80 0.65 -0.15 0.03
Diesel 0.43 0.43 0.42 0.43 0.44 0.42 0.37 0.45 0.45 0.00 0.02
Other gasoil 0.38 0.36 0.33 0.32 0.38 0.42 0.38 0.45 0.43 -0.02 0.03
Residual fuel oil 0.41 0.36 0.34 0.31 0.32 0.38 0.36 0.39 0.39 0.00 -0.05
Other products 0.44 0.40 0.40 0.38 0.38 0.40 0.42 0.42 0.36 -0.07 -0.12
Total 4.35 4.21 3.89 3.94 4.23 4.52 4.43 4.71 4.44 -0.28 -0.18
Germany
LPG and ethane 0.09 0.10 0.11 0.10 0.09 0.10 0.09 0.10 0.11 0.01 0.01
Naphtha 0.42 0.40 0.39 0.37 0.40 0.43 0.45 0.42 0.41 -0.01 -0.02
Motor gasoline 0.44 0.43 0.44 0.45 0.43 0.40 0.37 0.41 0.42 0.00 -0.01
Jet and kerosene 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.21 0.18 0.17 0.16 0.17 0.19 0.01 0.01
Diesel 0.73 0.77 0.76 0.81 0.79 0.74 0.67 0.76 0.79 0.03 0.03
Other gasoil 0.36 0.35 0.24 0.34 0.36 0.45 0.44 0.50 0.42 -0.08 0.04
Residual fuel oil 0.12 0.11 0.12 0.11 0.11 0.13 0.14 0.13 0.13 -0.01 0.01
Other products 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.07 0.05 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.03 0.01
Total 2.40 2.39 2.30 2.46 2.41 2.43 2.33 2.49 2.48 -0.01 0.08
Italy
LPG and ethane 0.11 0.12 0.11 0.11 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.00 0.02
Naphtha 0.09 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.13 0.12 0.13 0.14 0.01 0.02
Motor gasoline 0.20 0.21 0.21 0.23 0.21 0.20 0.18 0.20 0.20 0.00 0.01
Jet and kerosene 0.09 0.09 0.10 0.11 0.08 0.08 0.07 0.09 0.09 0.00 0.01
Diesel 0.50 0.46 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.44 0.40 0.45 0.46 0.00 0.00
Other gasoil 0.04 0.09 0.09 0.10 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.10 0.09 -0.01 0.01
Residual fuel oil 0.06 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.07 0.07 0.08 0.07 0.00 0.00
Other products 0.14 0.13 0.14 0.13 0.13 0.10 0.09 0.11 0.11 0.00 -0.01
Total 1.22 1.30 1.31 1.35 1.31 1.25 1.15 1.29 1.30 0.01 0.05
France
LPG and ethane 0.11 0.13 0.11 0.11 0.13 0.16 0.16 0.17 0.17 0.00 0.02
Naphtha 0.12 0.11 0.12 0.12 0.08 0.12 0.13 0.12 0.12 0.00 -0.01
Motor gasoline 0.16 0.16 0.17 0.18 0.16 0.15 0.13 0.15 0.16 0.01 0.01
Jet and kerosene 0.15 0.15 0.16 0.17 0.15 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.00 0.00
Diesel 0.70 0.70 0.71 0.72 0.71 0.67 0.60 0.69 0.71 0.02 0.02
Other gasoil 0.25 0.25 0.20 0.28 0.24 0.26 0.25 0.26 0.28 0.02 0.02
Residual fuel oil 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.04 0.04 -0.01 -0.01
Other products 0.12 0.10 0.12 0.10 0.08 0.10 0.09 0.10 0.10 0.00 0.01
Total 1.65 1.65 1.63 1.71 1.58 1.65 1.55 1.68 1.72 0.04 0.07
United Kingdom
LPG and ethane 0.12 0.14 0.14 0.12 0.14 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.16 -0.01 0.03
Naphtha 0.02 0.03 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.00 0.01
Motor gasoline 0.30 0.29 0.30 0.30 0.29 0.28 0.27 0.29 0.28 -0.02 0.01
Jet and kerosene 0.31 0.31 0.30 0.31 0.30 0.33 0.31 0.34 0.33 -0.01 0.00
Diesel 0.48 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.51 0.49 0.45 0.54 0.49 -0.04 0.04
Other gasoil 0.13 0.13 0.14 0.14 0.13 0.12 0.11 0.11 0.13 0.02 0.00
Residual fuel oil 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.00
Other products 0.12 0.12 0.11 0.13 0.12 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.00 0.00
Total 1.52 1.54 1.54 1.56 1.56 1.56 1.50 1.63 1.56 -0.06 0.09
Canada
LPG and ethane 0.37 0.38 0.36 0.38 0.41 0.42 0.44 0.41 0.41 0.00 0.02
Naphtha 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.10 0.11 0.12 0.11 0.11 0.00 0.01
Motor gasoline 0.84 0.82 0.82 0.85 0.81 0.83 0.85 0.81 0.82 0.02 0.05
Jet and kerosene 0.13 0.14 0.13 0.16 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.00 0.00
Diesel 0.29 0.31 0.31 0.32 0.29 0.30 0.30 0.31 0.29 -0.03 -0.03
Other gasoil 0.30 0.26 0.24 0.26 0.26 0.23 0.22 0.24 0.22 -0.02 -0.02
Residual fuel oil 0.06 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.00 -0.02
Other products 0.30 0.29 0.26 0.31 0.30 0.25 0.25 0.26 0.25 -0.01 -0.01
Total 2.40 2.34 2.26 2.38 2.34 2.31 2.35 2.31 2.27 -0.04 0.00
1 Demand, measured as deliveries from refineries and primary stocks, comprises inland deliveries, international bunkers and refinery fuel. It includes crude for direct burning, oil from
non-conventional sources and other sources of supply. Jet/kerosene comprises jet kerosene and non-aviation kerosene. Gasoil comprises diesel, light heating oil and other gasoils.
2 Latest official OECD submissions (MOS).
3 US figures exclude US territories.
Latest month vs.
Table 2b
OIL DEMAND IN SELECTED OECD COUNTRIES1
(million barrels per day)
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY – OIL MARKET REPORT TABLES
14 JUNE 2016 57
Table 3: World Oil Production
2015 2016 2017 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 Mar 16 Apr 16 May 16
OPEC
Crude Oil
Saudi Arabia 10.13 10.21 10.19 10.21 10.25
Iran 2.86 3.15 3.26 3.56 3.64
Iraq 3.99 4.28 4.19 4.36 4.27
UAE 2.88 2.81 2.73 2.82 2.89
Kuwait 2.75 2.83 2.83 2.73 2.85
Neutral Zone 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Qatar 0.66 0.66 0.67 0.66 0.66
Angola 1.76 1.77 1.80 1.75 1.75
Nigeria 1.80 1.76 1.68 1.62 1.37
Libya 0.40 0.36 0.34 0.35 0.27
Algeria 1.11 1.10 1.11 1.09 1.09
Ecuador 0.54 0.54 0.55 0.53 0.54
Venezuela 2.40 2.36 2.35 2.31 2.29
Indonesia 0.69 0.71 0.73 0.73 0.74
Total Crude Oil 32.05 32.56 32.43 32.72 32.61
Total NGLs1 6.67 6.86 6.99 6.77 6.83 6.89 6.94 6.94 6.77 6.83 6.83
Total OPEC2 38.73 39.33 39.20 39.55 39.44
NON-OPEC2,3
OECD
Americas 19.93 19.38 19.51 19.89 18.87 19.28 19.48 19.58 19.86 19.28 18.55
United States 12.94 12.54 12.53 12.75 12.54 12.38 12.48 12.51 12.88 12.64 12.53
Mexico 2.60 2.48 2.37 2.54 2.48 2.45 2.43 2.40 2.51 2.48 2.48
Canada 4.39 4.36 4.60 4.58 3.84 4.44 4.57 4.66 4.47 4.15 3.53
Chile 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
Europe 3.46 3.41 3.32 3.63 3.39 3.21 3.41 3.40 3.59 3.54 3.43
UK 0.96 0.98 0.94 1.08 1.01 0.87 0.97 0.97 1.06 1.05 1.01
Norway 1.95 1.94 1.89 2.03 1.92 1.88 1.94 1.93 2.01 2.03 1.96
Others 0.56 0.48 0.50 0.51 0.46 0.46 0.50 0.50 0.52 0.46 0.46
Asia Oceania 0.46 0.43 0.44 0.44 0.43 0.42 0.42 0.42 0.43 0.44 0.43
Australia 0.38 0.35 0.36 0.36 0.35 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.35 0.36 0.35
Others 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.09 0.08
Total OECD 23.85 23.21 23.26 23.95 22.69 22.91 23.30 23.40 23.88 23.26 22.41
NON-OECD
Former USSR 14.00 14.03 14.00 14.20 14.04 13.90 13.99 14.02 14.20 14.00 14.08
Russia 11.06 11.16 11.10 11.24 11.16 11.11 11.12 11.08 11.23 11.16 11.17
Others 2.94 2.87 2.90 2.96 2.88 2.79 2.86 2.94 2.96 2.84 2.91
Asia2 7.05 6.82 6.72 6.93 6.80 6.78 6.77 6.74 6.86 6.83 6.79
China 4.33 4.09 4.03 4.18 4.08 4.07 4.06 4.05 4.14 4.09 4.08
Malaysia 0.71 0.74 0.76 0.74 0.75 0.75 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.75 0.75
India 0.87 0.84 0.82 0.85 0.83 0.82 0.84 0.83 0.84 0.84 0.83
Others 1.15 1.14 1.11 1.16 1.15 1.14 1.13 1.12 1.14 1.16 1.14
Europe 0.14 0.14 0.13 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.13 0.13 0.14 0.14 0.14
Americas2 4.59 4.48 4.70 4.36 4.41 4.56 4.61 4.64 4.28 4.31 4.44
Brazil 2.53 2.57 2.85 2.40 2.49 2.67 2.73 2.78 2.35 2.37 2.52
Argentina 0.63 0.62 0.61 0.62 0.62 0.62 0.62 0.61 0.62 0.62 0.62
Colombia 1.01 0.91 0.87 0.96 0.91 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.92 0.92 0.90
Others 0.42 0.38 0.37 0.38 0.39 0.38 0.38 0.37 0.39 0.39 0.39
Middle East2,4 1.28 1.24 1.18 1.26 1.23 1.23 1.23 1.19 1.24 1.23 1.23
Oman 0.99 0.99 0.93 1.01 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.94 0.98 0.98 0.97
Syria 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03
Yemen 0.05 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
Others 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21
Africa 2.23 2.18 2.25 2.17 2.12 2.19 2.23 2.26 2.12 2.09 2.12
Egypt 0.67 0.64 0.62 0.65 0.64 0.64 0.63 0.62 0.65 0.65 0.64
Gabon 0.23 0.22 0.21 0.22 0.22 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.22 0.22 0.22
Others 1.33 1.32 1.43 1.30 1.25 1.34 1.39 1.42 1.25 1.22 1.26
Total Non-OECD 29.29 28.89 28.98 29.05 28.73 28.81 28.96 28.98 28.84 28.60 28.79
Processing gains5 2.24 2.27 2.29 2.27 2.27 2.27 2.27 2.29 2.27 2.27 2.27
Global Biofuels 2.26 2.38 2.45 1.89 2.52 2.74 2.38 1.97 1.93 2.45 2.45
TOTAL NON-OPEC 57.65 56.75 56.99 57.16 56.20 56.73 56.91 56.64 56.92 56.58 55.92
TOTAL SUPPLY 96.38 96.49 96.13 96.12 95.36
1 Includes condensates reported by OPEC countries, oil from non-conventional sources, e.g. Venezuelan Orimulsion (but not Orinoco extra-heavy oil),
and non-oil inputs to Saudi Arabian MTBE.
2 Other Asia excludes Indonesia throughout. Latin America excludes Ecuador throughout. Africa excludes Angola throughout.
Total Non-OPEC excludes all countries that were members of OPEC at 1 January 2016.
Total OPEC comprises all countries which were OPEC members at 1 January 2016.
3 Comprises crude oil, condensates, NGLs and oil from non-conventional sources
4 Includes small amounts of production from Jordan and Bahrain.
5 Net volumetric gains and losses in refining and marine transportation losses.
Table 3
WORLD OIL PRODUCTION
(million barrels per day)
TABLES INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY – OIL MARKET REPORT
58 14 JUNE 2016
Table 4: OECD Industry Stocks and Quarterly Stock Changes

RECENT MONTHLY STOCKS2 in Million Barrels	PRIOR YEARS’ STOCKS2 in Million Barrels	STOCK CHANGES in mb/d
Dec2015	Jan2016	Feb2016	Mar2016 Apr2016*	Apr2013	Apr2014	Apr2015	2Q2015	3Q2015	4Q2015	1Q2016

OECD Americas
Crude 641.1 660.9 675.5 690.4 703.4 532.9 537.4 637.7 0.00 -0.10 0.27 0.54
Motor Gasoline 267.5 291.5 285.3 275.6 273.0 258.1 253.9 261.4 -0.16 0.07 0.11 0.09
Middle Distillate 235.2 238.5 240.6 240.4 230.5 196.5 193.1 200.8 0.14 0.07 0.17 0.06
Residual Fuel Oil 49.6 50.4 52.2 50.8 49.9 49.1 44.7 46.4 0.03 -0.01 0.03 0.01
Total Products3 773.1 779.7 765.4 760.4 760.9 676.0 655.1 704.4 0.43 0.31 0.11 -0.14
Total4 1590.4 1614.0 1610.7 1624.1 1637.5 1363.6 1352.5 1511.7 0.59 0.37 0.21 0.37
OECD Europe
Crude 361.3 357.8 353.7 350.5 354.3 334.1 319.3 350.0 0.00 -0.05 0.23 -0.12
Motor Gasoline 92.1 102.3 108.2 100.5 99.9 94.3 88.9 95.2 -0.18 0.04 0.03 0.09
Middle Distillate 301.9 313.5 309.8 308.9 307.8 243.3 252.5 261.8 0.20 0.26 0.00 0.08
Residual Fuel Oil 71.9 72.5 76.0 77.1 75.1 81.0 62.9 67.2 0.01 0.03 0.03 0.06
Total Products3 563.2 588.6 593.0 584.7 581.1 516.8 494.8 520.0 0.00 0.36 0.06 0.24
Total4 989.8 1014.7 1019.3 1004.7 1004.7 914.4 880.6 939.7 0.02 0.29 0.25 0.16
OECD Asia Oceania
Crude 205.8 191.6 195.6 196.0 193.9 165.2 165.6 170.5 0.26 0.01 0.04 -0.11
Motor Gasoline 23.1 25.4 24.6 26.1 25.4 27.1 26.1 24.5 0.03 -0.02 0.00 0.03
Middle Distillate 65.9 64.5 59.4 59.0 62.3 62.0 56.2 57.9 0.06 0.06 -0.01 -0.08
Residual Fuel Oil 21.2 18.9 18.8 20.0 19.5 20.4 21.5 19.5 0.01 0.03 -0.01 -0.01
Total Products3 165.9 167.2 163.1 166.1 166.4 171.2 157.7 158.0 0.14 0.11 -0.11 0.00
Total4 434.7 425.2 421.7 421.3 422.3 414.0 390.9 391.1 0.41 0.17 -0.11 -0.15
Total OECD
Crude 1208.2 1210.3 1224.8 1236.9 1251.5 1032.2 1022.3 1158.1 0.26 -0.14 0.54 0.32
Motor Gasoline 382.7 419.2 418.2 402.2 398.3 379.5 368.9 381.0 -0.32 0.09 0.13 0.21
Middle Distillate 603.0 616.4 609.8 608.3 600.7 501.8 501.7 520.4 0.40 0.40 0.15 0.06
Residual Fuel Oil 142.7 141.8 147.0 147.9 144.6 150.5 129.0 133.1 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.06
Total Products3 1502.1 1535.5 1521.5 1511.2 1508.4 1364.0 1307.6 1382.4 0.57 0.79 0.06 0.10
Total4 3014.9 3053.9 3051.7 3050.0 3064.5 2692.0 2624.0 2842.4 1.02 0.82 0.35 0.39
RECENT MONTHLY STOCKS2 PRIOR YEARS’ STOCKS2 STOCK CHANGES
in Million Barrels in Million Barrels in mb/d
Dec2015 Jan2016 Feb2016 Mar2016 Apr2016* Apr2013 Apr2014 Apr2015 2Q2015 3Q2015 4Q2015 1Q2016
OECD Americas
Crude 695.1 695.1 695.1 695.1 695.1 696.0 693.3 691.0 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00
Products 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 2.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
OECD Europe
Crude 206.9 206.8 206.3 206.5 206.2 204.3 206.3 208.5 -0.02 0.01 -0.01 0.00
Products 262.0 264.4 265.0 266.4 263.8 258.3 259.9 260.9 0.02 -0.05 0.08 0.05
OECD Asia Oceania
Crude 382.2 383.6 384.2 384.2 384.2 389.6 387.8 386.9 -0.01 -0.05 0.01 0.02
Products 34.2 34.2 34.4 35.2 35.2 23.1 30.5 32.6 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01
Total OECD
Crude 1284.2 1285.5 1285.6 1285.8 1285.5 1289.9 1287.4 1286.3 0.00 -0.02 0.00 0.02
Products 298.1 300.5 301.4 303.6 301.0 282.4 291.5 295.5 0.02 -0.04 0.08 0.06
Total4 1586.6 1589.9 1590.7 1593.2 1589.5 1575.4 1582.8 1585.8 0.03 -0.06 0.08 0.07
* estimated
1 Stocks are primary national territory stocks on land (excluding utility stocks and including pipeline and entrepot stocks where known) and include stocks held by
industry to meet IEA, EU and national emergency reserve commitments and are subject to government control in emergencies.
2 Closing stock levels.
3 Total products includes gasoline, middle distillates, fuel oil and other products.
4 Total includes NGLs, refinery feedstocks, additives/oxygenates and other hydrocarbons.
5 Includes government-owned stocks and stock holding organisation stocks held for emergency purposes.
Table 4
OECD INDUSTRY STOCKS1 AND QUARTERLY STOCK CHANGES
OECD GOVERNMENT-CONTROLLED STOCKS5 AND QUARTERLY STOCK CHANGES
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY – OIL MARKET REPORT TABLES
14 JUNE 2016 59
Table 5: Total Stocks on Land in OECD Countries (‘millions of barrels’ and ‘days’)
3
Stock Days Fwd2 Stock Days Fwd Stock Days Fwd Stock Days Fwd Stock Days Fwd
Level Demand Level Demand Level Demand Level Demand Level Demand
OECD Americas
Canada 182.8 81 175.6 74 182.5 78 188.4 81 184.7 –
Chile 11.3 33 11.8 36 11.0 33 10.6 32 11.3 –
Mexico 49.8 26 50.4 25 49.5 24 49.7 25 48.7 –
United States4 1910.4 99 1973.2 100 2003.1 103 2016.8 104 2054.5 –
Total4 2176.3 90 2233.2 90 2268.2 93 2287.5 94 2321.2 96
OECD Asia Oceania
Australia 34.1 32 35.9 33 35.5 32 33.5 31 37.0 –
Israel – – – – – – – – – –
Japan 567.7 146 578.3 147 589.6 139 582.0 129 559.8 –
Korea 201.0 87 224.6 94 226.0 89 227.9 87 235.7 –
New Zealand 8.7 56 9.0 59 8.7 52 7.7 45 8.2 –
Total 811.6 106 847.9 109 859.7 104 851.1 99 840.7 111
OECD Europe5
Austria 23.7 91 23.2 82 23.7 91 24.1 95 25.4 –
Belgium 42.9 66 47.7 73 51.3 80 50.4 72 52.6 –
Czech Republic 21.7 103 21.6 105 21.8 127 22.1 148 22.8 –
Denmark 28.8 186 28.4 178 28.6 186 31.8 211 32.4 –
Estonia 1.5 50 1.5 46 1.5 48 1.8 60 2.2 –
Finland 44.1 254 45.0 229 39.9 214 44.9 249 46.0 –
France 172.9 106 169.8 99 166.8 105 167.6 102 165.8 –
Germany 283.9 123 285.6 116 281.4 117 285.3 117 288.8 –
Greece 31.1 112 27.8 91 29.2 94 32.4 116 33.8 –
Hungary 20.0 137 20.5 130 20.6 129 22.0 161 20.8 –
Ireland 12.8 90 11.1 74 11.3 75 11.6 75 12.2 –
Italy 121.0 93 117.1 87 117.2 89 117.3 94 119.9 –
Luxembourg 0.7 12 0.6 12 0.6 10 0.7 13 0.7 –
Netherlands 136.4 153 140.2 151 153.1 165 158.8 171 157.7 –
Norway 23.2 101 25.9 120 25.1 100 26.7 121 24.9 –
Poland 62.7 115 62.6 110 63.9 118 69.4 130 67.4 –
Portugal 21.7 86 21.8 84 23.0 96 23.9 108 24.5 –
Slovak Republic 11.6 133 11.4 140 11.0 137 11.6 153 11.9 –
Slovenia 4.9 99 4.7 88 4.6 96 4.5 90 4.6 –
Spain 132.4 109 133.4 107 139.4 114 130.9 104 140.3 –
Sweden 32.3 103 31.0 100 33.3 118 35.2 119 34.9 –
Switzerland 37.3 172 37.2 165 36.3 149 34.4 171 36.1 –
Turkey 64.7 75 65.7 69 71.2 82 74.6 88 75.9 –
United Kingdom 76.3 50 77.2 49 78.8 51 80.7 52 79.8 –
Total 1408.7 104 1410.9 100 1433.8 105 1462.9 107 1481.3 108
Total OECD 4396.6 97 4492.1 96 4561.7 98 4601.5 99 4643.2 102
DAYS OF IEA Net Imports6 – 172 – 194 – 196 – 198 – 200
1 Total Stocks are industry and government-controlled stocks (see breakdown in table below). Stocks are primary national territory stocks on land (excluding utility stocks
and including pipeline and entrepot stocks where known) they include stocks held by industry to meet IEA, EU and national emergency reserves commitments and are
subject to government control in emergencies.
2 Note that days of forward demand represent the stock level divided by the forward quarter average daily demand and is very different from the days of net
imports used for the calculation of IEA Emergency Reserves.
3 End March 2016 forward demand figures are IEA Secretariat forecasts.
4 US figures exclude US territories. Total includes US territories.
5 Data not available for Iceland.
6 Reflects stock levels and prior calendar year’s net imports adjusted according to IEA emergency reserve definitions (see www.iea.org/netimports.asp).
Net exporting IEA countries are excluded.
TOTAL OECD STOCKS
CLOSING STOCKS Total Industry Total Industry

1Q2013	4259	1580	2680	93	35	59
2Q2013	4253	1576	2676	92	34	58
3Q2013	4296	1582	2715	92	34	58
4Q2013	4174	1584	2589	91	35	57
1Q2014	4196	1585	2610	94	35	58
2Q2014	4261	1580	2681	93	34	58
3Q2014	4328	1578	2749	93	34	59
4Q2014	4318	1580	2738	93	34	59
1Q2015	4397	1583	2814	97	35	62
2Q2015	4492	1585	2907	96	34	62
3Q2015	4562	1579	2982	98	34	64
4Q2015	4601	1587	3015	99	34	65
1Q2016	4643	1593	3050	102	35	67

1 Includes government-owned stocks and stock holding organisation stocks held for emergency purposes.
2 Days of forward demand calculated using actual demand except in 1Q2016 (when latest forecasts are used).
Table 5
TOTAL STOCKS ON LAND IN OECD COUNTRIES1
controlled
Days of Fwd. Demand 2
End March 2015 End June 2015 End September 2015 End December 2015 End March 2016
Millions of Barrels
Government1
controlled
Government1
TABLES INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY – OIL MARKET REPORT
60 14 JUNE 2016
Table 6: IEA Member Country Destinations of Selected Crude Streams
2013 2014 2015 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 Jan 16 Feb 16 Mar 16 Mar 15 change
Saudi Light & Extra Light

Americas Europe Asia Oceania

0.74 0.79 1.21

0.65 0.84 1.17

0.63 0.78 1.25

0.65 0.77 1.25

0.57 0.77 1.16

0.72 0.69 1.21

0.74 0.72 1.40

0.80 0.85 1.31

0.68 0.72 1.46

0.72 0.58 1.42

0.63 0.86 1.48

0.09 -0.28 -0.06

Saudi Medium

Americas Europe Asia Oceania

0.45 0.01 0.43

0.36 0.03 0.45

0.37 0.03 0.44

0.37 0.02 0.44

0.44 0.02 0.48

0.43 0.04 0.41

0.39 – 0.46

0.33 – 0.42

0.38 – 0.53

0.46 – 0.44

0.30 – 0.45

0.16 – -0.01

Iraqi Basrah Light2

Americas Europe Asia Oceania

0.38 0.25 0.31

0.35 0.50 0.24

0.17 0.72 0.41

0.20 0.48 0.31

0.09 0.95 0.42

0.29 0.94 0.49

0.21 0.75 0.47

0.13 0.98 0.36

0.23 0.77 0.63

0.28 0.51 0.45

– 0.47 0.44

– 0.04 0.01

Kuwait Blend

Americas Europe Asia Oceania

0.28 0.10 0.64

0.27 0.09 0.62

0.13 0.13 0.65

0.21 0.08 0.61

0.11 0.16 0.62

0.07 0.18 0.69

0.13 0.20 0.71

– 0.19 0.63

0.39 0.25 0.73

– 0.16 0.75

– 0.03 0.64

– 0.14 0.12

Iranian Light

Americas Europe Asia Oceania

– 0.08 0.00

– 0.10 0.01

– 0.09 0.01

– 0.11 –

– 0.07 0.02

– 0.10 –

– 0.09 0.02

– 0.04 0.01

– 0.11 0.05

– 0.12 0.01

– 0.09 0.01

– 0.03 -0.01

Iranian Heavy3

Americas Europe Asia Oceania

– 0.03 0.30

– 0.01 0.28

– 0.02 0.27

– 0.01 0.25

– 0.03 0.25

– 0.01 0.26

– 0.04 0.44

– 0.06 0.39

– – 0.47

– 0.05 0.46

– 0.03 0.38

– 0.02 0.07

Venezuelan 22 API and heavier

Americas Europe Asia Oceania

0.61 0.07 –

0.64 0.08 –

0.67 0.09 –

0.67 0.09 –

0.67 0.07 –

0.67 0.10 –

0.61 0.06 –

0.49 0.08 –

0.65 0.04 –

0.70 0.07 –

0.72 0.09 –

-0.02 -0.02 –

Mexican Maya

Americas Europe Asia Oceania

0.70 0.14 –

0.66 0.14 –

0.50 0.15 0.01

0.43 0.13 0.01

0.45 0.19 0.02

0.54 0.11 0.02

0.52 0.15 0.02

0.55 0.11 0.03

0.48 0.13 0.01

0.53 0.19 0.02

0.59 0.15 –

-0.06 0.04 –

Canada Heavy

Americas Europe Asia Oceania

1.49 – –

1.71 0.00 0.00

1.90 0.01 –

1.81 0.01 –

2.02 0.01 –

1.94 0.01 –

2.10 0.01 –

2.15 0.02 –

2.11 – –

2.03 – –

1.83 – –

0.20 – –

BFOE

Americas Europe Asia Oceania

0.03 0.47 0.06

0.01 0.56 0.07

0.01 0.49 0.06

– 0.48 0.09

0.01 0.52 0.02

0.02 0.49 0.09

0.02 0.47 0.09

– 0.38 0.07

0.02 0.56 0.18

0.02 0.49 0.03

0.03 0.52 0.02

-0.01 -0.03 0.01

Russian Urals

Americas Europe Asia Oceania

0.00 1.79 –

– 1.58 –

– 1.61 –

– 1.51 –

– 1.64 –

– 1.74 –

– 1.54 –

– 1.48 –

– 1.61 –

– 1.53 –

– 1.51 –

– 0.02 –

Kazakhstan

Americas Europe Asia Oceania

0.06 0.59 0.00

0.01 0.64 0.02

0.00 0.64 0.06

0.01 0.60 0.02

– 0.59 0.12

– 0.65 0.06

– 0.71 0.05

– 0.79 0.04

– 0.60 0.05

– 0.73 0.06

– 0.69 0.03

– 0.04 0.03

Libya Light and Medium

Americas Europe Asia Oceania

0.00 0.57 0.03

– 0.31 0.02

– 0.22 0.01

– 0.23 0.02

– 0.22 –

– 0.25 –

– 0.15 0.02

– 0.09 0.02

– 0.14 0.01

– 0.23 0.04

– 0.22 –

– 0.01 –

Nigerian Light4

Americas Europe Asia Oceania

0.07 0.53 0.03

0.00 0.55 0.02

0.02 0.57 –

0.01 0.53 –

0.03 0.55 –

0.02 0.58 –

0.07 0.44 –

– 0.49 –

0.18 0.52 –

0.05 0.33 –

– 0.54 –

– -0.21 –

1 Data based on monthly submissions from IEA countries to the crude oil import register (in ‘000 bbl), subject to availability. May differ from Table 8 of the Report.
IEA Americas includes United States and Canada.
IEA Europe includes all countries in OECD Europe except Estonia, Hungary and Slovenia.
IEA Asia Oceania includes Australia, New Zealand, Korea and Japan.
2 Iraqi Total minus Kirkuk.
3 Iranian Total minus Iranian Light.
4 33° API and lighter (e.g., Bonny Light, Escravos, Qua Iboe and Oso Condensate).
Table 6
IEA MEMBER COUNTRY DESTINATIONS OF SELECTED CRUDE STREAMS1
(million barrels per day)
Year Earlier
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY – OIL MARKET REPORT TABLES
14 JUNE 2016 61
Table 7: Regional OECD Imports
2013 2014 2015 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 Jan 16 Feb 16 Mar 16 Mar 15 % change
Crude Oil
Americas 5130 4201 4022 4085 4075 4056 4284 4024 4236 4590 4114 12%
Europe 8926 8679 9503 9194 9605 9741 8974 9018 9161 8755 9639 -9%
Asia Oceania 6557 6381 6576 6426 6486 6526 6807 6425 7077 6935 6704 3%
Total OECD 20612 19261 20101 19704 20165 20323 20065 19468 20474 20280 20456 -1%
LPG
Americas 17 12 10 12 5 12 10 9 10 11 11 -7%
Europe 382 427 412 361 408 404 404 428 460 328 538 -39%
Asia Oceania 546 531 517 535 491 506 590 531 578 660 592 11%
Total OECD 946 970 940 908 904 921 1004 969 1047 998 1142 -13%
Naphtha
Americas 17 20 15 14 12 12 11 14 15 5 9 -48%
Europe 332 356 348 287 413 283 360 308 413 361 365 -1%
Asia Oceania 927 959 957 915 954 983 955 1082 890 890 919 -3%
Total OECD 1276 1335 1320 1217 1379 1278 1326 1404 1317 1255 1294 -3%
Gasoline3
Americas 659 665 670 745 813 549 435 447 468 392 592 -34%
Europe 106 131 107 117 72 117 105 203 67 43 164 -74%
Asia Oceania 83 83 100 125 69 106 81 81 71 90 104 -13%
Total OECD 848 879 878 987 954 772 621 731 606 526 860 -39%
Jet & Kerosene
Americas 81 100 141 152 132 133 154 175 134 151 162 -7%
Europe 445 454 442 426 586 392 462 358 480 548 386 42%
Asia Oceania 74 60 65 68 50 75 81 103 83 57 60 -5%
Total OECD 601 613 649 646 768 600 697 636 697 756 607 25%
Gasoil/Diesel
Americas 58 95 76 40 46 63 57 21 111 43 152 -72%
Europe 1121 1097 1216 1314 1261 1178 1413 1291 1455 1497 1286 16%
Asia Oceania 162 181 186 188 169 222 205 188 219 209 139 50%
Total OECD 1341 1373 1478 1542 1476 1462 1676 1501 1785 1748 1578 11%
Heavy Fuel Oil
Americas 165 132 116 113 139 91 163 180 102 202 121 67%
Europe 552 617 564 484 518 575 544 529 490 608 767 -21%
Asia Oceania 242 214 187 134 186 215 199 164 196 236 239 -1%
Total OECD 960 963 867 731 844 881 905 873 788 1047 1127 -7%
Other Products
Americas 812 671 675 760 759 553 642 613 738 581 586 -1%
Europe 791 704 702 669 737 724 766 744 825 734 686 7%
Asia Oceania 386 374 322 306 343 320 354 330 413 323 323 0%
Total OECD 1989 1750 1698 1735 1839 1597 1762 1687 1976 1638 1596 3%
Total Products
Americas 1810 1695 1703 1836 1906 1414 1472 1460 1578 1385 1634 -15%
Europe 3729 3786 3793 3658 3996 3672 4054 3861 4191 4118 4193 -2%
Asia Oceania 2421 2403 2334 2272 2263 2427 2465 2480 2448 2465 2377 4%
Total OECD 7960 7884 7829 7766 8164 7512 7991 7801 8217 7968 8204 -3%
Total Oil
Americas 6940 5896 5725 5921 5980 5470 5757 5484 5815 5975 5749 4%
Europe 12655 12465 13296 12851 13601 13413 13028 12880 13352 12873 13831 -7%
Asia Oceania 8978 8783 8910 8698 8748 8952 9271 8905 9525 9400 9080 4%
Total OECD 28573 27144 27930 27470 28329 27835 28056 27269 28692 28248 28660 -1%
1 Based on Monthly Oil Questionnaire data submitted by OECD countries in tonnes and converted to barrels.
2 Excludes intra-regional trade.
3 Includes additives.
Year Earlier
Table 7
REGIONAL OECD IMPORTS1,2
(thousand barrels per day)
TABLES INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY – OIL MARKET REPORT
62 14 JUNE 2016
© OECD/IEA 2016. All Rights Reserved
Without prejudice to the terms and conditions on the IEA website at
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As set out in the Terms, the OECD/IEA owns the copyright in this OMR. However,
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